On the Convergence of the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Method for Latent Variable Models

While much used in practice, latent variable models raise challenging estimation problems due to the intractability of their likelihood. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML), as proposed by Geyer & Thompson (1992 ), is a simulation-based approach to maximum likelihood approximation applicable to general latent variable models. MCML can be described as an importance sampling method in which the likelihood ratio is approximated by Monte Carlo averages of importance ratios simulated from the complete data model corresponding to an arbitrary value of the unknown parameter. This paper studies the asymptotic (in the number of observations) performance of the MCML method in the case of latent variable models with independent observations. This is in contrast with previous works on the same topic which only considered conditional convergence to the maximum likelihood estimator, for a fixed set of observations. A first important result is that when is fixed, the MCML method can only be consistent if the number of simulations grows exponentially fast with the number of observations. If on the other hand, is obtained from a consistent sequence of estimates of the unknown parameter, then the requirements on the number of simulations are shown to be much weaker.     

Estimation of generalized linear latent variable models

Summary.  Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs), as defined by Bartholomew and Knott, enable modelling of relationships between manifest and latent variables. They extend structural equation modelling techniques, which are powerful tools in the social sciences. However, because of the complexity of the log-likelihood function of a GLLVM, an approximation such as numerical integration must be used for inference. This can limit drastically the number of variables in the model and can lead to biased estimators. We propose a new estimator for the parameters of a GLLVM, based on a Laplace approximation to the likelihood function and which can be computed even for models with a large number of variables. The new estimator can be viewed as an M -estimator, leading to readily available asymptotic properties and correct inference. A simulation study shows its excellent finite sample properties, in particular when compared with a well-established approach such as LISREL. A real data example on the measurement of wealth for the computation of multidimensional inequality is analysed to highlight the importance of the methodology.     

一类混合指数型算子的一致逼近

主要讨论了一类混合指数型算子的一致逼近问题，并给出了逼近阶的估计和特征刻划。     

具扩充Jacobi结点的Lagrange插值逼近

研究了以扩充Jacobi多项式(1+x)Vn(x)的零点为基点的Lagrange插值多项式Ln(f,x)逼近/k)的一些问题.     

Optimal lot sizing under continuous price decrease

An important characteristic of high-tech industries is decreasing component prices over time. In the personal computer industry, some component prices decline at a rate of 1% per week. This paper develops an inventory model for products experiencing continuous decrease in unit price. We develop an accurate closed-form approximate solution to the model. Our results indicate that declining prices lead to substantial decrease in the optimal cycle time and much frequent ordering. This explains the heavy emphasis on just-in-time inventory management practiced by successful companies in high-tech industries. While previous models attributed the success of just-in-time policies to reduced holding cost and improved quality, under declining prices a substantial source of savings becomes lower costs of raw materials which is significant part of cost in these industries. We illustrate the results of the model with a numerical example and perform sensitivity analysis.     

一类多元Gauss-Weierstrass算子线性组合的加权逼近

该文给出了一类多元Gauss-Weierstrass算子线性组合加Jacobi权在一致逼近下的正、逆定理和逼近阶的特征刻划     

On pooling data summaries in the absence of interactions “response-by-study”

The standard hypothesis testing procedure in meta-analysis (or multi-center clinical trials) in the absence of treatment-by-center interaction relies on approximating the null distribution of the standard test statistic by a standard normal distribution. For relatively small sample sizes, the standard procedure has been shown by various authors to have poor control of the type I error probability, leading to too many liberal decisions. In this article, two test procedures are proposed, which rely on thet—distribution as the reference distribution. A simulation study indicates that the proposed procedures attain significance levels closer to the nominal level compared with the standard procedure.     

关于丢番图逼近中的一个猜想(I)

证明了Cusich提出的猜想 (I) .对于任给的n个正整数a1,a2 ,… ,an 总存在一个实数x ,使得‖aix‖ 1n+ 1,i=1,2 ,…n成立 .其中‖x‖表示x到其最近整数的距离     

Traffic Partition in WDM/SONET Rings to Minimize SONET ADMs

SONET (Synchronous Optical NETworks) add-drop multiplexers (ADMs) are the dominant cost factor in the WDM(Wavelength Division Multiplexing)/SONET rings. The number of SONET ADMs required by a set of traffic streams is determined by the routing and wavelength assignment of the traffic streams. Previous works took as input the traffic streams with routings given a priori and developed various heuristics for wavelength assignment to minimize the SONET ADM costs. However, little was known about the performance guarantees of these heuristics. This paper contributes mainly in two aspects. First, in addition to the traffic streams with pre-specified routing, this paper also studies minimizing the ADM requirement by traffic streams without given routings, a problem which is shown to be NP-hard. Several heuristics for integrated routing and wavelength assignment are proposed to minimize the SONET ADM costs. Second, the approximation ratios of those heuristics for wavelength assignment only and those heuristics for integrated routing and wavelength assignment are analyzed. The new Preprocessed Iterative Matching heuristic has the best approximation ratio: at most 3/2.     

A note on LeCam’s bound for the distance between the Poisson binomial and the Poisson distribution

n possibly different success probabilities p ₁, p ₂, ..., p _n is frequently approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = p ₁ + p ₂ + ... + p _n . LeCam's bound p ² ₁ + p ² ₂ + ... + p _n ² for the total variation distance between both distributions is particularly useful provided the success probabilities are small. The paper presents an improved version of LeCam's bound if a generalized d-dimensional Poisson binomial distribution is to be approximated by a compound Poisson distribution. Received: May 10, 2000; revised version: January 15, 2001