山西大学学生身体素质状况的跟踪研究

该文通过对山西大学在校学生 1992～ 1999年的素质状况的跟踪研究 ,针对显示出的问题提出相应对策 ,为改善大学生的身体素质提供科学依据     

A regression-based smoothing spline Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing American options in discrete time

American options in discrete time can be priced by solving optimal stopping problems. This can be done by computing so-called continuation values, which we represent as regression functions defined recursively by using the continuation values of the next time step. We use Monte Carlo to generate data, and then we apply smoothing spline regression estimates to estimate the continuation values from these data. All parameters of the estimate are chosen data dependent. We present results concerning consistency and the estimates’ rate of convergence.     

A multiple warm standby δ-shock system with a repairman having multiple vacations

In this article, a warm standby n-unit system is studied. The system is operational as long as there is one unit normal. The unit online, which has a lifetime distribution governed by a phase-type distribution, is also attacked by a shock from some external causes. Assume that shocks arrive according to a Poisson process. Whenever an interarrival time of shock is less than a threshold, the unit online fails. The lifetimes of the units in warm standby is exponentially distributed. A repairman who can take multiple vacations repairs the failed units based on the “first-in-first-out” rule. The repair times and the vacation times of repairman are governed by different phase-type distributions. For this system, the Markov process governing the system is constructed. The system is studied in a transient and stationary regime; the availability, the reliability, the rates of occurrence of the different types of failures, and the working probability of the repairman are calculated. A numerical application is performed to illustrate the calculations.     

赛典赤民族政策的历史贡献与现代启示

元代是云南由地方割据走向与中原接轨的全国大一统格局的关键时期 ,而在此关键时期 ,云南首任平章政事赛典赤·赡思丁又起了关键作用。赛典赤所采取的一系列政策措施 ,不仅迅速稳定了云南局势 ,而且对此后 70 0多年云南作为中国统一的多民族国家一部分的历史发展产生了深远的影响。重温赛典赤治滇的民族政策 ,对我们今天的民族工作仍具有启示意义     

Contribution analysis to analyze the effects of the health impact assessment at the local level: A case of urban revitalization

The health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool used to estimate the potential impact on health of non-health-related proposals prior to implementation. While it is increasingly used in Quebec, Canada, studies have not analyzed its medium-term impacts and potential long-term impacts. We conducted a contribution analysis using in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, as well as documents, observation and images related to HIA in order to analyze its impacts on the revitalization of road infrastructure, parks and green spaces, and residential housing. Our analysis not only reflects on the decision-making process through the adoption and implementation of HIA recommendations, but also on the link between actions implemented in the field and health outcomes.     

新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

试论江泽民“三个代表“思想的理论贡献

江泽民总书记在“七一”讲话中明确提出了“三个代表”思想的科学内涵 ,从新的理论高度科学地回答了“建设一个什么样的党、怎样建设党”的问题 ,它是我党理论上的新飞跃 ;回答了党应该怎样执政、执政目的和党怎样保持先进性和生命力、始终走在时代前列的问题 ;提供了衡量我们治国理政成败得失的标准以及如何实现党和国家长治久安等重大问题。江泽民“三个代表”思想为马克思主义党建理论的进一步发展做出了积极的贡献。     

基于系统动力学的顾客抱怨管理研究

本文针对企业进行顾客抱怨管理过程中,抱怨提出率和抱怨处理能力对顾客满意、重复购买以及顾客忠诚的影响进行分析,对该过程中顾客流动趋势进行预测与研究。尝试采用系统动力学方法,根据系统运转的行为模式建立模型,从市场中采集初始的实证数据,利用系统动力学(Vensim5.0)软件对顾客流动趋势进行仿真模拟,通过对仿真结果分析,找到整个运转过程中的关键指标。研究的最终目的是通过对关键指标的有效分析与调节,实现系统运行的最佳效果。进一步,根据实验数据,提出企业应该如何依据现有情况制订最佳的指标调节策略的方法。     

预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率

人口年龄结构趋于老龄化和人均预期寿命逐步增长是目前我国人口发展的两个典型特征,而年龄阶段不同,个人的收入、消费与储蓄行为也不同。基于生命周期理论,在选定相关分析指标的基础上,文章使用我国省际平衡面板数据,实证分析了我国人口预期寿命增长和年龄结构改变对国民储蓄率的影响。分析结论表明,人口预期寿命增长提高了我国国民储蓄率;不考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率;在考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率。对此,文章给出了合理的解释。通过使用多种估计方法,我们发现所得到的结论是基本稳健的。     

教育对经济增长贡献算法的改进

本文就教育对经济增长贡献已有的算法及其缺陷进行评述,考虑到AK模型能够比较好地刻画我国的经济增长以及教育本身的延时性,本文提出两条改进意见:发达地区可采用舒尔茨的教育资本存量法,非发达地区和全国范围宜在此基础上选用延期回归方程法,本文还结合深圳1978~1994和中国1978~1996年的样本对此作出解释和验证.