When Precaution Creates Misunderstandings: The Unintended Effects of Precautionary Information on Perceived Risks,the EMF Case

In the past decade, growing public concern about novel technologies with uncertain potential long‐term impacts on the environment and human health has moved risk policies toward a more precautionary approach. Focusing on mobile telephony, the effects of precautionary information on risk perception were analyzed. A pooled multinational experimental study based on a 5 × 2 × 2 factorial design was conducted in nine countries. The first factor refers to whether or not information on different types of precautionary measures was present, the second factor to the framing of the precautionary information, and the third factor to the order in which cell phones and base stations were rated by the study participants. The data analysis on the country level indicates different effects. The main hypothesis that informing about precautionary measures results in increased risk perceptions found only partial support in the data. The effects are weaker, both in terms of the effect size and the frequency of significant effects, across the various precautionary information formats used in the experiment. Nevertheless, our findings do not support the assumption that informing people about implemented precautionary measures will decrease public concerns.     

The Perceived Health Risks of Indoor Radon Gas and Overhead Powerlines: A Comparative Multilevel Approach

Radon and overhead powerlines are two radiation risk cases that have raised varying levels of concern among the general public and experts. Despite both involving radiation—a typically feared and unseen health hazard—individuals' perceptions of the two risk cases may invoke rather different factors. We examined individual and geographic-contextual factors influencing public perceptions of the health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines in a comparative research design, utilizing a postal questionnaire with 1,528 members of the general public (response rate 28%) and multilevel modeling techniques. This study found that beliefs about the two risk cases mainly differed according to the level of "exposure"—defined here in terms of spatial proximity. We argue that there are two alternative explanations for this pattern of findings: that risk perception itself varies directly with proximity, or that risk is more salient to concerned people in the exposed areas. We also found that while people living in high radon areas are more concerned about the risks of indoor radon gas, they find these risks more acceptable and have more trust in authorities. These results might reflect the positive effects of successive radon campaigns in high radon areas, which may have raised awareness and concern, and at the same time may have helped to increase trust by showing that the government takes the health risks of indoor radon gas seriously, suggesting that genuine risk communication initiatives may have positive impacts on trust in risk management institutions.     

Health‐Economics Analyses Applied to ELF Electric and Magnetic Fields

Extremely low frequency electric and magnetic fields (ELF EMFs) are a common exposure for modern populations. The prevailing public‐health protection paradigm is that quantitative exposure limits are based on the established acute effects, whereas the possible chronic effects are considered too uncertain for quantitative limits, but might justify precautionary measures. The choice of precautionary measures can be informed by a health‐economics analysis (HEA). We consider four such analyses of precautionary measures that have been conducted at a national or state level in California, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Israel. We describe the context of each analysis, examine how they deal with some of the more significant issues that arise, and present a comparison of the input parameters and assumptions used. The four HEAs are methodologically similar. The most significant qualitative choices that have to be made are what dose‐response relationship to assume, what allowance if any to make for uncertainty, and, for a CBA only, what diseases to consider, and all four analyses made similar choices. These analyses suggest that, on the assumptions made, there are some low‐cost measures, such as rephasing, that can be applied to transmission in some circumstances and that can be justifiable in cost‐benefit terms, but that higher cost measures, such as undergrounding, become unjustifiable. Of the four HEAs, those in the United Kingdom and Israel were influential in determining the country's EMF policy. In California and Netherlands, the HEA may well have informed the debate, but the policy chosen did not stem directly from the HEA.     

The Efficacy of Different Methods for Informing the Public About the Range Dependency of Magnetic Fields from High Voltage Power Lines

The AC electric and magnetic fields associated with high voltage power lines have become a concern as a possible health risk. In most cases the strength of these fields decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the line. In earlier work, we found that laypeople do not understand how rapidly field strength decreases with distance. Most believe that any high voltage power line they can see is exposing them to strong fields. This paper confirms the earlier finding and explores a number of strategies which might be used in risk communications to correct this misperception. We found it relatively easy to provide subjects with a better understanding of the range-dependency of magnetic field strength. Moreover, the quality of this acquisition was apparently independent of the manner in which they were instructed. Such successful instruction is markedly different from the well-established difficulty of teaching people about many qualitative domains, such as physics or ideas in probability. Clearly, while some erroneous beliefs are highly resistant to change, others can be altered quite readily. We suspect that an important distinction between knowledge about the range-dependency of power-frequency magnetic fields and less tractable topics involves the presence or absence of prior folk-theories or "mental models" of the domain.     

动生电动势公式与法拉第电磁感应定律关系的讨论

运用不同公式计算一道动生电动势习题,得到两种不同答案．本文分析了这道典型习题,指出了产生模棱两可的原因,并从法拉第电磁感应定律简便导出动生电动势的公式     

Developing Policy in the Face of Scientific Uncertainty: Interpreting 0.3 μT or 0.4 μT Cutpoints from EMF Epidemiologic Studies

There has been considerable scientific effort to understand the potential link between exposures to power-frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMF) and the occurrence of cancer and other diseases. The combination of widespread exposures, established biological effects from acute, high-level exposures, and the possibility of leukemia in children from low-level, chronic exposures has made it both necessary and difficult to develop consistent public health policies. In this article we review the basis of both numeric standards and precautionary-based approaches. While we believe that policies regarding EMF should indeed be precautionary, this does not require or imply adoption of numeric exposure standards. We argue that cutpoints from epidemiologic studies, which are arbitrarily chosen, should not be used as the basis for making exposure limits due to a number of uncertainties. Establishment of arbitrary numeric exposure limits undermines the value of both the science-based numeric EMF exposure standards for acute exposures and precautionary approaches. The World Health Organization's draft Precautionary Framework provides guidance for establishing appropriate public health policies for power-frequency EMF.     

A Structured Literature Review for Risk Assessment: EMF and Human Health Risk

The volume of publications on any given topic makes it difficult to select an appropriate subset of publications for review by an expert panel. This paper proposes a method for selecting a subset using a protocol that attempts to order publications based upon good research methods. The protocol was followed by graduate students with no expert knowledge of the area they were reviewing. They reduced 11730 articles on the topic of EMF and Health risk to 68 articles that were reviewed by an expert panel. The interrater reliability was 96% and 94% of the relevant articles were captured by this process.     

The Effects of Precautionary Messages about Electromagnetic Fields from Mobile Phones and Base Stations Revisited: The Role of Recipient Characteristics

Precautionary messages have been shown to increase recipients’ threat perceptions about radio‐frequency electromagnetic fields (RF‐EMFs) emitted by mobile phones and mobile phone base stations. The current study explored the interplay of variables on the side of message recipients with this effect. The individual difference variables of interest were gender, trait anxiety, personal need for structure, and personal fear of invalidity. Furthermore, the study determined whether the increased threat perception is accompanied by emotional distress. A total of 298 university students answered a survey after reading either a basic text about RF‐EMFs or a text including precautionary information. Linear multiple regression with interactions analyses showed that the effect of precautionary messages differed for people with different levels of trait anxiety. How trait anxiety was related to the effect of precautionary messages in turn depended on participants’ gender. Personal need for structure and personal fear of invalidity were mostly unrelated to the effect of precautionary messages. Regarding participants’ emotional distress, we found no difference in state anxiety scores between those participants who received precautionary information and those who did not. The findings show that the effects of precautionary messages on threat perception depend on individual difference variables such as recipients’ trait anxiety and gender. Also, the fact that precautionary communication did not result in heightened state anxiety challenges the assumption that precautionary messages induce fear or anxiety.     

Research Strategies for Magnetic Fields and Cancer

Widespread concerns about whether electric and magnetic fields (EMF) could adversely affect human health have been raised in epidemiologic studies reported since the 1980s. Possible EMF health effects have been widely publicized in the popular press since that time. We consider here three possible mechanisms of action of EMF on childhood leukemia. We identify the first as "magnetic fields": this hypothesis relates the average level of magnetic field to the incidence of childhood leukemia. We identify a second, recently proposed, mechanism as "contact current": this hypothesis relates the low voltage and consequent current that occurs on the domestic water pipe, due to U.S. grounding practices, as a source for exposure of children. The third hypothesis is that the relationship observed is spurious. Using a modified example taken from the work of Von Winterfeldt and Keeney, we use Decision Analysis to estimate the value of information for distinguishing between the three hypotheses. We believe that this improves on the usual process for deciding on research budgets. Depending on which hypothesis we favor a priori, the value of being informed ranges from US 101 dollars to US 233 dollars per "problem household." Since there could be as many as 2 million such households, the value of information for resolving this issue could approach half a billion dollars! We find that there is no value of information for finding the odds ratio given the contact current hypothesis. In writing this article, we have consciously kept the computations as simple as possible so as to engage the reader's attention and interest. In a penultimate section, we suggest numerous possible extensions for a group interested in discussing and deciding on the value of research on the relationship between magnetic fields and cancer.