浅谈家庭教育在未成年人思想道德建设中的作用

家庭教育在未成年人的思想道德建设中起着极其重大作用,它关系到一个国家的前途和民族的命运。     

财政幻觉假说的实证检验

财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程，将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”，以中国1978～2004年的年度数据，采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型，对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一，其中“赤字幻觉”的存在未得到显著证实，但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。     

Sample selection in radiocarbon dating

Archaeologists working on the island of O'ahu, Hawai'i, use radiocarbon dating of samples of organic matter found trapped in fish-pond sediments to help them to learn about the chronology of the construction and use of the aquicultural systems created by the Polynesians. At one particular site, Loko Kuwili, 25 organic samples were obtained and funds were available to date an initial nine. However, on calibration to the calendar scale, the radiocarbon determinations provided date estimates that had very large variances. As a result, major issues of chronology remained unresolved and the archaeologists were faced with the prospect of another expensive programme of radiocarbon dating. This paper presents results of research that tackles the problems associated with selecting samples from those which are still available. Building on considerable recent research that utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to aid archaeologists in their radiocarbon calibration and interpretation, we adopt the standard Bayesian framework of risk functions, which allows us to assess the optimal samples to be sent for dating. Although rather computer intensive, our algorithms are simple to implement within the Bayesian radiocarbon framework that is already in place and produce results that are capable of direct interpretation by the archaeologists. By dating just three more samples from Loko Kuwili the expected variance on the date of greatest interest could be substantially reduced.     

Speciation, its ecological and biogeographical consequences

I studied the effect of treehole (microhabitat) size distribution in local habitats on geographic difference in aquatic metazoan community structure by comparing differences between two sites on Iriomote Island, and between Iriomote Island (subtropical) and Tsushima Island (temperate), in southwestern Japan. In treeholes at each local site, the amount of litter, the species richness and total biomass of metazoa were positively correlated with treehole capacity. Between the two sites on Iriomote Island (Shirahama and Komi), the amount of litter, biomass and species number per treehole was greater at Komi where the mean and variance of treehole size were greater, while the dependencies of these parameters on treehole capacity were common to both sites. Total species number was larger at Komi (2 predators and 20 saprophages) than at Shirahama (1 predator and 19 saprophages). Most of the dominant taxa colonized larger treeholes with higher probabilities, although one taxa showed the opposite trend. Treeholes on Tsushima were smaller than those on Iriomote. The metazoan fauna in treeholes consisted of 15 saprophages on Tsushima, being less richer than that on Iriomote Island which had 2 predators and 21 saprophages. However, the dependencies of litter amount and biomass on treehole capacity did not differ significantly between the islands, although treeholes on Iriomote harbored a greater number of species per treehole than those on Tsushima. This study indicated that there are general correlates between community structure within individual treeholes (infracommunity structure) and treehole capacity (microhabitat size). Therefore, microhabitat-size distribution is potentially a significant constraint of local community structure, and its variation may contribute to the variation in local and regional species richness.     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

集聚效应、集聚效率与城市规模分布变化

摘　　要:本文从城市集聚效应的视角,分析我国城市规模分布的结构性变化的机制,在此基础上构建了包含集聚效应的城市总量生产函数的计量经济学模型,然后应用OLS方法估算我国不同规模等级城市的平均集聚效应指数和平均集聚效率指数．并对比分析其对城市规模分布变化的影响。本文的实证结果表明,平均集聚效率指数的高低与城市规模分布比重的增减相一致。     

Multiple-arm superiority and non-inferiority designs with various endpoints

Multiple-arm dose-response superiority trials are widely studied for continuous and binary endpoints, while non-inferiority designs have been studied recently in two-arm trials. In this paper, a unified asymptotic formulation of a sample size calculation for k-arm (k>0) trials with different endpoints (continuous, binary and survival endpoints) is derived for both superiority and non-inferiority designs. The proposed method covers the sample size calculation for single-arm and k-arm (k> or =2) designs with survival endpoints, which has not been covered in the statistic literature. A simple, closed form for power and sample size calculations is derived from a contrast test. Application examples are provided. The effect of the contrasts on the power is discussed, and a SAS program for sample size calculation is provided and ready to use.     

“无直接利益冲突”的网络发生机制

近年来,“无直接利益冲突”现象在我国似乎形成一种所谓“涟漪效应”,其产生的深层根源在于社会分配的不公平及与之相联系的群体异质不公平感的普遍存在;其次也与利益表达机制的不畅通有关。在其产生的过程中,事件触发与演化的关联性往往是通过驱动机制、认同机制、社会比较与自我展示机制和说服争辩机制交互作用表现出来的。在信息时代,“无直接利益冲突”的这些相关发生机制往往与网络极化效应直接相关,即“无直接利益冲突”极易导致网络极化效应的产生,而网络极化效应也促使了“无直接利益冲突”的扩散。而这种双向互动的过程,正是“无直接利益冲突”网络发生机制的作用过程。由此,应给予充分重视。     

具有GARCH（1，1）-正态误差项的非对称单位根检验研究

摘　　要:理论研究表明许多经济变量呈现出非对称的门限自回归（TAR）或动态门限自回归（M-TAR）数据生成机制,因而非对称单位根检验就成为该领域的主要研究方向之一。本文对非对称单位根检验Enders-Granger方法在GARCH（1,1）-正态误差项下的检验水平与检验势作了系统的仿真研究。研究表明：GARCH（1,1）-正态误差项的TAR或M-TAR模型会对该方法的检验水平和检验势产生重要影响。     

A general method of constructing E(s2)-optimal supersaturated designs

There has been much recent interest in supersaturated designs and their application in factor screening experiments. Supersaturated designs have mainly been constructed by using the E ( s ²)-optimality criterion originally proposed by Booth and Cox in 1962. However, until now E ( s ²)-optimal designs have only been established with certainty for n experimental runs when the number of factors m is a multiple of n-1 , and in adjacent cases where m = q ( n -1) + r (| r | 2, q an integer). A method of constructing E ( s ²)-optimal designs is presented which allows a reasonably complete solution to be found for various numbers of runs n including n ,=8 12, 16, 20, 24, 32, 40, 48, 64.