Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

Local spatial data infrastructure, Trujillo-Peru

The development of a Municipal Information System, or currently better known as a local spatial data infrastructure, is considered complex due to the required inter-institutional relationships. In many developing countries Geographical Information Systems (GISs) are introduced but the benefits are modest as no changes take place in technical and organisational structure of organisations. Digital databases and computer-aided design (CAD) maps are mushrooming in great variety within different private and public institutions, municipal organisations and even within single departments and with structures similar to the paper period and thus operating on a stand-alone basis.Many national mapping agencies are not able to provide large-scale digital urban base maps, while the absence or low quality of cadastres makes those basic core data sets unavailable or inaccessible. The result is that duplication and incompatible data are frequently observed and also donor-driven stand-alone projects have a limited impact through the lack of institutional embedding and are not able to mature from the project to the institutional level. However, a positive sign is that there is an increasing awareness among data producers and consumers that investments in the development of digital data sets should be combined to reduce costs and increase benefits from especially GIS, and information and communication technology (ICT) in general.Within Trujillo a long-term vision was developed to make full use of ICT and GIS to modernise all operations of the Municipality to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of its tasks. However, large investments are not feasible due to the very limited municipal budgets. To guarantee the support of the municipal council, short-term results are required. This paper describes three ‘products’ as part of the vision to develop through a step-by-step approach a local spatial data infrastructure for Trujillo.The three, rather different, products are:

1. fiscal cadastre, to increase municipal revenues through property taxation;

2. an ‘environmental atlas’ based on a compatible spatial and attribute data sets from a variety of organisations; and

3. a municipal website with interactive GIS and meta data information.

The paper concludes with some comments on the institutional and political requirements for the successful development of a local spatial data infrastructure and stresses that such an infrastructure is not a product but an incremental development process that will progress only in case such a process is simple, cost effective, user-friendly, and flexible with clear products.Political interest and institutional stability and genuine interest for inter-institutional cooperation will add much to the success of this process.     

浅谈生态伦理及其教育问题

生态道德教育是一个普遍性的社会伦理问题。生态危机的特征 ,生物共同体的联系以及我国生态环境的现状 ,都客观地要求我们必须注重人与自然界的和谐发展 ,加强全民性的生态道德教育。     

开展我国环境审计的新思考

在我国,环境审计对于国家审计、内部审计和民间审计来说都是一个新内容。作为环境管理系统的重要组成部分,环境审计具有重大的意义。因此,建立健全环境审计制度,采取切实可行的措施,是环境管理和环境审计的重要任务。     

环境会计信息披露的有关问题

企业作为环境污染的主要肇事者, 理应承担起治理环境污染的责任, 由此就会产生相应的环境支出和环境收益, 并因而影响企业的财务状况和经营成果。将环境活动纳入企业会计核算体系, 反映企业对自然资源的消耗和对环境的污染及其治理情况, 披露环境会计信息, 成为传统会计面临的新课题, 本文主要对环境会计信息披露的内容和方式进行探讨     

区域经济增长与环境质量演进关系模型研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线

从社会福利最大化角度出发,通过设定物品消费偏好指数,建立两物品模型,推导出了区域环境最佳投资水平;在此基础上,从理论上证明了环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的依据以及在环境质量最低点和环境质量发生根本性好转的转折点的社会总投资水平。最后,得出环境质量演化过程曲线取决于社会经济发展状况,它与非环境物品生产函数和排污生产函数的技术参数、居民收入水平以及对环境物品和非环境物品的消费偏好以及国民收入分配政策等有关,而非仅仅与经济增长状况有关。     

Industry and the environment: a case study of cleaner technologies in selected European countries

The aim of this case study is to discuss the role of technology in addressing environmental problems. The paper tries to scratch beneath the surface of the increasingly frequent ‘quick-fix’ solutions to the present environmental problems, based on such beguiling catchwords as Cleaner Technologies, Best Available Technologies, and Best Available Technologies Not Exceeding Excessive Costs, etc., in an attempt to discover whether there is any substance in them, or whether they are just full of hot air. Recent data from case studies performed by the author in Germany and Finland as well as a postal questionnaire in Denmark are presented. The paper analyses and discusses the roles and responsibilities of designers, industrialists, and government policy-makers. It is argued that existing regulatory regimes, supranational industrial structures, and market mechanisms do not favour the development of cleaner technologies, nor do they promote a reduction in consumption patterns. Evidence from ongoing empirical research in Northwest Europe suggests that industry is far from developing and/or implementing cleaner technologies. The paper closes with a discussion of some of the policy implications involved and some examples of urgently needed further research.     

“关系圈”稀释“受害者圈”：企业环境污染与村民大多数沉默的乡村逻辑—山东N村个案研究

基于山东N村手套加工厂及其环境影响的调查发现,村落内生企业的关系嵌入与乡村社会分化的叠加效应,是大多数村民面对环境危害而保持沉默的乡村逻辑。乡村作为兼具乡土底色与经济理性的生活共同体,被企业污染建构为具有统合性的整体受害者圈。“同住一个村”的共同体意识形塑大部分村民的环境沉默行为与少数积极分子环境抗争的自我克制,而企业生产建构的获利者群体进一步分化了受害者圈层,村落“双重圈层”互嵌式关系格局阻隔村民通过集体行动制止企业污染的底层路径。农村内生污染企业的嵌入属性加深了村落社会分化、侵蚀了农村环境治理的社会基础,更提醒关注农村污染企业的社区嵌入与村民环境行为选择的复杂性关联。     

我国环境刑罚轻缓化探析

毋庸置疑,在整个国际社会对环境犯罪处以轻缓刑罚的背景下,我国亦应该对环境刑罚采用轻缓化的原则。诚然,我国的环境刑罚制度与其他国家相比还有许多亟待完善的地方,但这并不妨碍我们在借鉴其他国家先进的立法经验的基础上构建适合我国具体国情的环境刑罚制度。在环境刑罚中要突出自由刑的适用,扩大并完善财产刑的适用,明确财产刑中过于模糊的规定,逐步改善环境犯罪的刑事处罚措施过于单一的缺点和功能上的不足,同时提高对辅助刑罚措施的关注。在环境犯罪方面,在适用传统刑罚措施惩治的基础上配合适用辅助刑罚措施,使我国环境刑罚轻缓化实践不至于成为一纸空谈。