Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

市场经济下政府与市场的关系

在市场经济中，市场必须在资源配置中发挥基础性或决定性的作用，但政府在市场失灵的地方又必须积极地发挥作用。本文分别从早期市场经济中政府的作用、现代市场经济中政府的作用等五个方面对这一问题进行论述。     

The value of being precise

This study investigates how individuals assess imprecise information. We focus on two essential dimensions of decision under uncertainty, outcomes and probabilities, and their respective precision. We believe the precision of information is highly relevant in the investment setting, as reflected in the well-known “home (familiarity) bias”, and the outcome and probability dimensions, separately or jointly, may affect investors’ knowledge of uncertainty and perceived risk of the investment options, and subsequently affect investors’ choices. To test this conjecture, we conducted three experiments. Our results show that 1) participants demonstrate a pattern of preference for precision and aversion of extreme vagueness and associate vagueness with higher perceived risk and lower investment (experiments one and two); 2) participants prefer vague outcome information to vague probability information (experiment two); 3) familiarity indeed positively affects the precision of estimated values, but this association is stronger for the outcome dimension than for probabilities (experiment three). Our results confirm that precision in information, especially in the outcome dimension has an impact on investors’ resource allocation choices.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

Response strategy to environment context factors using a lean and agile approach: Implications for firm performance

Based on the environment-strategy performance perspective and dynamic capabilities framework, we develop a theoretical model and hypotheses specifying how supply chain collaboration as a response to environment context factors – competitive intensity, supply uncertainty, technological turbulence and market turbulence, using a lean and agile strategy may influence firm performance. We test the model using partial least square structural equation modelling on data collected from a field survey with responses from 152 manufacturing firms representing a variety of industries. Empirical findings generally support the relationship between collaboration and firm performance using a lean and agile strategy. Also, for firms in industries that face environments characterised by high supply uncertainty and competitive intensity with, technological turbulence, the study finds evidence of a direct relationship between these environmental factors and supply chain collaboration. The findings provide an initial strategic response framework for appropriately aligning a lean and agile supply chain strategy through collaboration with environment context factors to achieve firm performance improvements.     

上证30指数股市盈率实证分析

通过对2000年上证30指数股市盈率水平及其影响因素进行实证分析,可以发现,其中股息支付率、每股收益增长率、行业平均市盈率对股票P/E值起主要的解释作用,而股本规模因素,解释力却有限,除每股收益增长率外,各变量的相关性与理论分析基本一致.     

现代市场经济是信用经济

信用是经济发展的基石 ,为促进我国社会主义市场经济的健康发展 ,必须认清和健全我国的信用体系。     

浅析电子商务中的信息安全风险评估

本文结合电子商务自身特点,从对信息资产风险对象的确定、风险评估方法选择、评估的具体指标评价和结果的分析后,确定信息资产的风险控制策略。同时从投入与收益的比较选择中,简单分析控制措施选择与成本预算方面的关系。     

Chemical risk communication through the Internet in Spain

In this work, some corporate websites of the chemical industry of Tarragona (Spain) are studied, analysing how the chemical trade associations and companies present information and/or encourage dialogue with the community on issues relating to the chemical risk and their environmental, health and safety (EHS) performance. The results suggest that the chemical industry in Tarragona uses the corporate websites mainly to disseminate information about its EHS commitments and performance, but they do not encourage dialogue with the community through the Internet.     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.