The fiducial argument and hacking's principle of irrelevance

In a searching analysis of the fiducial argument Hacking (1965) proposed the Principle of Irrelevance as a condition under which the argument is valid. His statement of the Principle was essentially non-mathematical and this paper presents a mathematical development of the Principle. The relationship with likelihood inference is explored and some of the proposed counter-examples to fiducial theory are considered. It is shown that even with the Principle of Irrelevance examples of non-uniqueness of fiducial distributions exist.     

Americans’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues

Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior‐specific analyses), the behaviors involved, and whether analysis focused on the full sample or only on people who had a reasonable opportunity to enact the behavior or who believed it relevant to their lives. There was a general contrast between mosquito control actions (removal of mosquito breeding areas and pesticide spraying) and travel‐related behaviors (avoiding travel to areas of local transmission of the virus, protecting oneself from mosquito bites after potential exposure, and practicing safe sex after potential exposure). Reported action or inaction during the 2016 mosquito season, and stages of behavior change, were both elicited in January–February 2017; both drove intentions in April 2017 for the upcoming season, although direct and indirect effects varied widely. Collectively these findings present theoretical, measurement, and practical implications for understanding, tracking, and promoting voluntary protective actions against hazards.     

股利政策可能是无关的吗？

股利政策无关论,是现代财务理论的基础理论之一,但它实际上是不成立的：一方面,它是以循环论证为基础的,另一方面,我们可以模仿它来“证明”其他一些难以成立的无关论。进一步地,即使股利政策无关论的证明能够被接受,它也需要补充至少五个苛刻的假设前提。