Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Where do we stand? Recent AEA member views on professionalization

The professionalization of evaluation continues to be debated at numerous conferences in the U.S. and abroad. At this time, AEA member views on the potential benefits and negative side effects of professionalization are essential as the discussion evolves. This study provides recent views on major topics in professionalization, including potential benefits, negative side effects, processes, competencies, and procedures. Results from in-depth interviews and an online survey demonstrate that AEA members view potential benefits of professionalization to be stakeholder trust, evaluator reputation and identity, while concerns about a potential negative side effect known as the “narrowing effect” (i.e., some evaluators will be alienated based on their background, competencies, etc.) were expressed by participants. These recent findings can inform the ongoing discussion of professionalization, and suggest new directions for future research on evaluation.     

A model with long-term survivors: negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders

Abstract

We propose a cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution and the time to the event of interest has the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Further, the new model includes as special cases some well-known cure rate models published recently. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of the negative binomial Birnbaum-Saunders model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model in the analysis of a real data set from the medical area.     

试析哈萨克族学生汉语否定结构的习得顺序?

在分析汉语否定结构的有关特点及回顾第二语言学习者学习汉语否定结构的研究成果后,以哈萨克族学生学习汉语否定结构时可能遇到的困难为基础,选取不同类型的常用词类和结构设计了调查问卷。通过统计不同水平的学生掌握汉语否定结构的准确度,解释了他们对这一结构的习得顺序。文章认为,哈萨克族学生对汉语否定结构的习得顺序,不但与否定结构的复杂程度有关,而且也与哈萨克语和汉语否定结构上的差异有关。     

论法院网络负面舆论较多的原因与应对

在全国性舆论事件越来越多的新媒体时代,社会对司法公正的关注度越来越高。特别是近两年,大量的网络负面舆论影响到了法院的独立审判。为引导与应对网络负面舆论,应从司法公正关注度、网民围观评论、民间舆论领袖、媒体报道商业化及外媒关注、法院信息公开不到位与舆论引导能力欠缺5个方面,结合实务案例分析找出相应的引导与应对措施。     

试论中国传统文化对高校实行学分制的影响

本文从治国理念、价值取向、心理倾向、文化发展等方面概括了中国传统文化的主要特征.分析了中国传统文化对高校实行学分制的积极影响和消极影响,指出:应吸收中国传统文化中的积极因素,摒除其消极因素,树立新的育人理念,实行学分制,坚持以学生为本位的人才培养观,培育平等的师生观,充分利用有限的资源调动教师的教学积极性,给学生更多自由发展的空间,以促进高等教育的发展.     

Finite normal mixture copulas for multivariate discrete data modeling

A new family of copulas is introduced that provides flexible dependence structure while being tractable and simple to use for multivariate discrete data modeling. The construction exploits finite mixtures of uncorrelated normal distributions. Accordingly, the cumulative distribution function is simply the product of univariate normal distributions. At the same time, however, the mixing operation introduces association. The properties of the new family of copulas are examined and a concrete application is used to show its applicability.     

Changing symbolic and geographical boundaries between penal zones and rural communities in the Russian Federation

The article examines the processes involved in the integration of the USSR's secret places into mainstream rural society in the Russian Federation. Taking the example of one rural district in the Volga-Ural region that has been the site of a large prison complex over a period of ninety years, the article examines how economic changes and local government and penal reforms have eroded the boundary that marked off the penal region from the rural district in which it was located. Using interviews and social surveys conducted among the local population, the article examines the extent to which the opening of the penal sub-region has led to changes in the symbolic boundary between the communities in the rural raion. The article concludes that although new spaces of active government are being produced in rural Russia, these are not necessarily the basis for the emergence of new common identities among the people living in them.     

上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单的路径和措施

目前,在中国(上海)自贸试验区的各项实施制度中,"负面清单"制度是其中重要的一项,也将是未来自贸区可复制、可推广的一项关键制度。对此,可借鉴《美国双边投资协议2012年范本》,将上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单,向全国推广。     

Efficient Estimation of Parameters of the Negative Binomial Distribution

In this article we investigate a class of moment-based estimators, called power method estimators, which can be almost as efficient as maximum likelihood estimators and achieve a lower asymptotic variance than the standard zero term method and method of moments estimators. We investigate different methods of implementing the power method in practice and examine the robustness and efficiency of the power method estimators.