Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory

This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.

孔汉思的儒、基两教人性论差异对比研究分析

孔子与耶稣的对比研究是孔汉思先生儒教与基督教对比分析的一个组成部分,在对比分析中孔汉思表明了对于孔子和耶稣的态度也即是对于两教在人性论上的态度。这种对比建基于孔氏的世界伦理构想,在这种目的的指引下,孔汉思重点关注两教人性论的相异之处即“人性论的乐观主义”和“人性论的悲观主义”,以求在了解的基础上达成对话的可能。     

Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

Work absence as a function of a national traumatic event: the case of Prime Minister Rabin's assassination

Most research on absenteeism has focused on the effects of individual and work-related factors, to the exclusion of the effects of societal and political events external to the individual and his/her specific work conditions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the emotional reaction to the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin in Israel and work absenteeism during the period following the assassination. It was hypothesized that: (1) emotional reaction is positively related to absenteeism; (2) this relationship is stronger among female employees than among male employees; and (3) this relationship is stronger for individuals who are pessimistic about the future as opposed to those who are optimistic. These hypotheses were supported by data collected from a random sample of 199 working adults.     

Validation of the Childbirth Attitudes Questionnaire in Greek and psychosocial characteristics of pregnant women with fear of childbirth

BackgroundFear of childbirth has been found to be a factor that influences women's decision about their choice of delivery. The investigation of psychological factors that relate to fear of childbirth as well as the validation of the Childbirth Attitudes Questionnaire (CAQ) can help identify pregnant women with high fear of childbirth.AimThis study aimed to (a) translate and validate the Childbirth Attitude Questionnaire in Greek and (b) explore how fear of childbirth was related to childbirth self-efficacy, state anxiety, depression, neuroticism, self-esteem and optimism.Methods145 nulliparous pregnant women, in late pregnancy, attending routine antenatal visit in a private maternity clinic participated. All participants completed the CAQ (fear of childbirth) and other self-report questionnaires that measured childbirth self-efficacy, self-esteem, optimism, neuroticism, state anxiety and depressive symptomatology. Factor structure was investigated using principal axis factoring. Cronbach's α was used to measure internal consistency reliability. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between all study variables, followed by multiple linear regression.FindingsThe factor analysis suggested the existence of one-factor structure. Construct validity was confirmed by computing correlations between the CAQ and childbirth self-efficacy, self-esteem and optimism. Multivariate analysis showed that childbirth self-efficacy, self-esteem and optimism were negatively and significantly associated with fear of childbirth.Conclusion and implications for practiceThe Greek version of the CAQ is a reliable and valid measure. The clinical use of CAQ may enable midwives and other health care professionals to identify pregnant women with low childbirth confidence and to provide information and support.     

关于人、鹰、鸡关系的沉思——再评人口乐观论

本文首先对美国经济学家乔治·亨利等人的人口乐观论进行了分析和研究;并在此基础上,对人口越多越好的观点提出了质疑和批评;最后,本文提出了自己的三个观点。     

Pessimism of the will,optimism of the intellect: endings and beginnings

ABSTRACT

This essay argues for the need for an ‘optimism of the intellect’ – in the form of the need for cultural studies – in the face of a growing ‘pessimism of the will.’ It illustrates the value of cultural studies by considering three contemporary problematics: post-truth, polarization and consent.     

高丽前半期汉诗的盛唐精神意蕴

高丽前半期（918-1170）的汉诗诗人都没有个人文集留存下来,其少量作品主要依靠徐居正的《东文选》和崔滋的《补闲集》得以传世,有作品存世的作家也屈指可数。高丽前半期汉诗诗人身上所具有的亦官亦隐、乐观向上的盛唐精神特质对其汉诗创作的题材、意蕴产生极大影响。高丽前半期汉诗诗人所书写的亦官亦隐的人生体验中,既体现闲适淡泊的情韵,也体现积极进取、乐观向上的精神意蕴,这两者并不相悖,且共同演绎了高丽前半期汉诗诗人的盛世情怀及其汉诗的盛唐精神意蕴。     

Relative Risk Perception for Terrorism: Implications for Preparedness and Risk Communication

Terrorism presents a significant risk that is often approached at public policy, infrastructure, or emergency management level. Public perceptions of the likelihood of terrorist events, and how this may relate to individual preparedness, are not always extensively examined. The tendency to think that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself than to the average person is known as optimism bias. Optimism bias is relevant to perceptions of terrorism, because it is thought to be related to a reduction in precaution use. Using an online survey of 164 participants, this study aimed to determine whether Sydney residents thought they had a lower likelihood of experiencing terrorist events than other Australians. Significant optimism bias was observed for witnessing terrorist events, but not for personally experiencing terrorist events. In addition, Sydney residents tended to think that terrorist attacks were more likely to occur in Sydney than another major Australian city in the next five years. At the same time, household and workplace preparedness for terrorism was quite low, as was awareness of emergency strategies in the central business district. Perceptions of high likelihood of terrorism happening in one's own city, yet low preparedness present a challenge for risk communication and emergency management strategies. The diversity of possible terrorist targets, and the simple plans that can moderate the effects of a disaster may need to be emphasized in future anti‐terrorism initiatives.