生育政策调整及其风险规避

现行生育政策对遏制中国人口过快增长作出了历史性贡献,但是政策本身具有阶段性和局限性,不宜长期实行,否则会因下一代人口的过快衰减而影响家庭、社会甚至国防安全。为了让公民满足在生育上的刚性需求和实现平等的生育权利以及降低政策的负面影响,建议将现行生育政策调整为全国统一的“补偿一孩,允许二孩,控制三孩”,并将这一政策延续到2033年前后。调整生育政策可能会出现生育率波动、推迟和抬高人口峰值、计划生育工作滑坡、独生子女家庭总负担加重、人口与资源生态环境关系更加紧张等风险,需要切实规避。     

福费廷服务的法律思考

福费廷是一种新兴的以无追索权为特点的国际融资服务项目。西方国家的绝大多数大银行都开展了此项业务,而我国银行和贸易商对此了解不多。中国在入世时承诺的五年过渡期即将结束,外资银行纷纷抢滩中国市场,凭借其丰富的管理经验和优质多样的服务品种积极争夺中国国内的优质客户,南京爱立信"倒戈"花旗银行便是例证。中国的银行业面临前所未有的严峻局面。福费廷的研究和利用能使中资银行在竞争中获得一席之地,更好地迎接挑战。     

村民是如何化解环境健康风险的?

污染—疾病科学关系不清及制度安排问题等因素致信息不全,加之村民相关科学知识的缺乏,是村民环境健康风险认知的根本性障碍,但村民并没有如简单预设的那样处于"束手待毙"的状态。在乡村社区,村民利用"熟人社会"的社会结构和文化机制把有限的信息无限利用,有效地应对了信息不全的困境。面对外源性污染,并且无法改变污染现状的格局下,村民根据生活经验和常识策略性地化解健康风险。村落社会中的亲缘、地缘关系结构以及精英—大众结构也影响了村民对环境健康风险的规避。村民化解环境健康风险虽然缺乏成熟的科学指导,却有其独特的实践逻辑。     

The Right to Take Risks: Alcohol and Older People

This paper examines policy and practice regarding the purchase of alcohol for older clients of home carers in three local authorities in the Greater London area. Data were gathered from interviews with home carers and their managers, focus group discussions, and a postal survey. None of the local authorities had a written policy or written guidance on alcohol purchase or on appropriate responses to the identification of problematic drinking in older clients. The findings illustrate the problem of balancing "rights" and "risks" within a philosophy of community care which emphasizes client choice and autonomy, and show how policy and practice are "tailored" by local contexts. It is suggested that both home carers and other domiciliary workers, as well as their older clients, could benefit from a clear code of practice regarding responses to alcohol consumption and problematic drinking by older people.     

上海世博会经济风险分析——兼论德国2000年汉诺威世博会

针对世博会巨额亏损这一重大课题,笔者分析并找出了汉诺威2000年世博会亏损的影响因素,并将这些因素运用于上海世博会的经济风险分析,根据汉诺威世博有限公司的经验,指出上海世博公司需要引起注意的几个方面,结合我国和上海的实际情况,为上海世博公司提出预防、规避和分散经济风险的方案和建议.     

新型农村医疗保险中医方道德风险成因及对策分析

我国新型农村合作医疗保险从2003年开始推行,其采用第三方支付的方式,在解决农民因病返贫、致贫方面产生了积极的效果,但医方道德风险的普遍存在,对新型农村合作医疗保险存在很大的危害,本文通过对医方道德风险产生原因的分析,提出防范医方道德风险的对策。     

城市独生子女伤残、死亡给其父母带来的困境及对策——以北京市宣武区调查数据为依据

基于北京市宣武区的调查数据及访谈材料,分析了独生子女意外伤残或死亡给其父母带来的困境,并对其原因进行了社会学分析,进而提出要保障我国人口的可持续发展,必须把现行的人口和计划生育政策推演为“人口和计划生育制度”,以有效的制度规避独生子女家庭的风险。     

Does shift work lead to poorer health habits? A comparison between women who had always done shift work with those who had never done shift work

Shift work has been reported to predict health problems, and a possible explanation is that shift work may lead to poorer health habits, thereby increasing a person's vulnerability to illness. This study examined the association between shift work and health habits, as indicated by smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity and by being overweight. A questionnaire was sent to all 2795 female nurses working in the 10 hospitals of two Finnish health care districts. From the 2299 respondents, we selected those 506 shift workers who reported having always done shift work and those 183 day workers who had never done shift work. Shift workers were found to smoke more and to be overweight more often than day workers. These differences gradually increased in each successive age group, being 1.94 pack-years in smoking and 0.9 kg m^-2 in body mass index among nurses over 45 years of age. Shift work was not associated with alcohol intake or sedentary lifestyle. This evidence is compatible with the possibility that shift work in nurses increases smoking and being overweight to a degree that contributes to health problems, including coronary heart disease.     

Estimation of weibull parameters for grouped data with competing risks

We consider the problem of estimating Weibull parameters for grouped data when competing risks are present. We propose two simple methods of estimation and derive their asymptotic properties. A Monte Carlo study was carried out to evaluate the performance of these two methods.     

试论上市公司对外担保的财务风险及规避

过度担保使很多上市公司陷入担保诉讼的漩涡,频繁引爆的"担保地雷"更加引发了人们对上市公司担保风险的深层思考,本文评介了我国上市公司对外担保的现状,探究了过度担保发生的动因,最后提出了防范和规避风险的对策。