An Examination of the Effect of Continuous Quality Improvements on Optimal Pricing for Durable Goods*

This paper investigates the nature of optimal prices for a durable good in the presence of continuous quality improvements. The analysis of optimal prices is based on a nonlinear dynamic model of sales response that relates price, quality, average life of a product and the persistence of quality perceptions. Numerical solutions to the model are derived by employing the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. The results show that optimal price depends on the persistence of quality perceptions and the average life of a product (an aspect of quality). The analysis of optimal results affirms results based on other models and provides insights on the influence that quality has on optimal pricing. The implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

On the Specification of Propensity Scores,With Applications to the Analysis of Trade Policies

A vector autoregression is fit to recent U.S. data on wheat prices, wheat export sales, wheat export shipments, and exchange rates. Forecast error decompositions and out-of-sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments.     

The impact of random machine unavailability on inventory policies in a continuous improvement environment

There are production situations where a production facility (e.g. a machine) is used intermittently to produce lot sizes of certain products. Upon completion of production run, the facility may not be available for a random amount of time due to several reasons, such as: the facility needs to be maintained and the maintenance time is random due to unforeseen circumstances; or that the facility is leased by different manufacturers and the demand for the facility is random. As a result of machine unavailability, stock-out situations might arise. This paper extends the work of Abboud et al . (2000, Computers and Operations Research , 27 , 335-351) by assuming learning and forgetting in production. A new mathematical model is developed with numerical examples and sensitivity analysis provided. Furthermore, this paper determines how the overall inventory cost is influenced by the nature of the random variable that represents the unavailability time of the production facility.     

Toyota in the 21st century in Asian countries: Information exchange system and best mix

This article explains the general nature of the business style of Toyota management strategy, its specific performance, and its development in China. It is quite difficult to find specific revolutionary policies and unusual strategies for the success of the Toyota Motor Corporation.     

Marketing Category Forecasting: An Alternative of BVAR‐Artificial Neural Networks*

Analyzing scanner data in brand management activities presents unique difficulties due to the vast quantity of the data. Time series methods that are able to handle the volume effectively often are inappropriate due to the violation of many statistical assumptions in the data characteristics. We examine scanner data sets for three brand categories and examine properties associated with many time series forecasting methods. Many violations are found with respect to linearity, normality, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity. With this in mind we compare the forecasting ability of neural networks that require no assumptions to two of the more robust time series techniques. Neural networks provide similar forecasts to Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), and both outperform generalized autoregressive conditional herteroscedasticty (GARCH) models.     

直销“异化”风险的法律防范

直销易于＂异化＂为金字塔销售计划的特征,使得直销制度一直难以被人们完全接纳。如何在合理发展直销业的同时,行之有效地杜绝直销＂异化＂,是直销立法所关注的重点问题。文章结合国外的直销立法经验以及我国直销法律政策的演进历程,深入分析目前我国直销法律防范直销＂异化＂的相关规定,并就如何制止目前仍存在的非法传销活动提出相应的建议。     

A Two-Period Repeated Game Advertising Investment Model for Oligopolistic Markets with an Application to the Beer Industry*

This paper proposes a simple analytical model of advertising competition in oligopoly markets. The widely used log-log sales response function underlies the model specification. Advertising carryover effects are assumed to persist for one period following the period in which the expenditure occurs. Firms are assumed to be engaged in a repeated competitive game in which in every period advertising levels are set such that they maximize current and next period (i.e., two-period) profits. A Nash equilibrium solution is sought for the game. Compared with previous empirical studies of advertising competition in a game theoretic framework, the proposed model offers the following advantages: (1) oligopoly, not duopoly, markets are analyzed; (2) industry sales is allowed to vary over time as a function of advertising expenditures; (3) non-zero discount rates are used for the players. An empirical application is provided using data from the beer market on sales and advertising expenditures of Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing. Comparisons are provided with policies that ignore the dependence of next period profits on current advertising levels, reaction function strategies and spending levels obtained from a market share game. Extension of the model formulation to multiple marketing instruments is briefly discussed.     

Incorporating Price and Replacement Purchases in New Product Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables*

The article presents theoretical and empirical research findings which incorporate price and replacement purchases in new product diffusion models. On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes, qualitatively, optimum pricing policies for new products. Possible entry of rivals is not considered, but repeat sales, cost learning dynamics and discounting of future profit streams are allowed. Theoretical research findings suggest that the inclusion of repeat purchases in the diffusion model significantly changes the derived optimal pricing policy even if replacements were not price dependent. On the empirical side, alternative first purchase and repeat purchase models have been estimated and compared using nonlinear procedures. The diffusion data analyzed is related to nine consumer durables. Empirical research findings suggest that, for the considered product categories, diffusion is basically an imitative process, price can affect first and replacement purchases, and unit production cost is a decreasing function of cumulative first purchases. Managerial implications of the research findings are also discussed.     

北京街头无照经营商贩生存状况调查研究

对城市无照街头商贩的管理和服务问题,以往无论是政府还是学者都从“管理论”的视角去研究这一问题,很少有从商贩本身的角度或需要进行切入。本文以北京市无照商贩的生存状况为研究起点．通过社会调查了解北京街头商贩的工作情况、生活质量、各种关系及需求,最终使读者及相关部门对街头无照商贩的生存处境和需求有一个较清楚的认识,同时也为这一问题的合理解决,实现商贩和城市的共同、和谐发展提供了意见和建议。     

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users of support systems. In many companies computerized support systems are used in demand forecasting enabling interventions based on management judgment to be applied to statistical forecasts. However, the resulting forecasts are often ‘sub-optimal’ because many judgmental adjustments are made when they are not required. An experiment was used to investigate whether restrictiveness or guidance in a support system leads to more effective use of judgment. Users received statistical forecasts of the demand for products that were subject to promotions. In the restrictiveness mode small judgmental adjustments to these forecasts were prohibited (research indicates that these waste effort and may damage accuracy). In the guidance mode users were advised to make adjustments in promotion periods, but not to adjust in non-promotion periods. A control group of users were not subject to restrictions and received no guidance. The results showed that neither restrictiveness nor guidance led to improvements in accuracy. While restrictiveness reduced unnecessary adjustments, it deterred desirable adjustments and also encouraged over-large adjustments so that accuracy was damaged. Guidance encouraged more desirable system use, but was often ignored. Surprisingly, users indicated it was less acceptable than restrictiveness.