创新活动的思维机制

创新思维是具有实践性、整合性和开创性的思维 ,创新的思维发生主要表现在 :发现导致创新的问题 ,想象可能创新的空间 ,洞察推出创新的机遇 ,反馈动态创新的信息。创新思维是在不确定、不完全信息、博弈行为中展开的。创新思维要开发隐含知识和利用软件系统     

问责-避责关系新解：基于“行动-制度-环境”框架

问责与避责间的关系是责任政治研究的重要议题,其中,问责导致避责的机制亟待探究。以X县早稻生产政策过程为例,基于“行动-制度-环境”的分析框架,探讨上级问责与基层避责之间的关系机制。研究发现：基层干部避责行为是上级问责制度与基层社会环境共同作用的结果,是作为责任者的基层干部面对上级问责压力和农民抗拒压力的理性选择。为贯彻落实非粮化整治政策,上级通过责任分配、责任考核和督查问责制度,给基层干部施加了巨大的早稻生产责任压力。而农民在长期的生产历史过程中已经形成了以中稻种植模式为主导的、较为稳定的生产秩序,拒不执行早稻生产政策。承受双重压力的基层干部只能采取责任兜底的属地化机制、利益交换的市场化机制和联合避责的科层化机制来规避上级问责风险。作为行动者的基层干部运用自由裁量权,通过隐匿信息、集体负债等方式,在一定程度上改变了既有的制度-环境,再造了基层治理结构。     

论领导权结构、企业避税与会计信息可靠性的关系

以我国2013—2015年沪深两市A股类上市公司为样本,运用相关性分析和回归分析,以消除应计利润影响后的会计—税收差异作为衡量企业避税指标,用盈余激进度衡量会计信息可靠性,分析企业避税程度与会计信息可靠性的关系,并进行了稳健性检验。结果表明,企业避税程度对会计信息可靠性起负面作用。在此基础上,进一步梳理了领导权结构、企业避税与会计信息可靠性的关系,研究发现,相比两职合一的公司,企业避税程度对会计信息可靠性的负面作用主要体现在两职分离的公司。这对于深入研究企业避税与会计信息可靠性的关系具有一定的借鉴意义,可为完善公司治理机制、提高会计信息可靠性提供一定的思路借鉴和决策参考。     

COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS IN STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING MODELS

This paper applies mathematical programming to cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis under contribution margin uncertainty. Three CVP probabilistic chance-constraint models based on various safety-first criteria for decisions under uncertainty are presented and compared. It is shown that a break-even segment of the mean-standard deviation frontier is a set of optimal solutions for the proposed models. An operational parametric quadratic programming (QP) model is constructed, and the efficiency frontier is generated. The procedures for locating an optimal solution on the efficiency frontier are then presented. The recommended QP procedure offers both technical relief from the computational difficulties posed by the probabilistic constraints and a desired flexibility in generating and presenting the relevant information for decisions under uncertainty.     

产业集群品牌风险与规避措施探析

集群品牌是集群的共有财富,是集群产品提高竞争力的重要途径。但集群品牌的公共物品属性会造成集群内企业对其维护与发展的投入不足,而且个别企业的投机行为可能会产生"多米诺骨牌"效应,造成"公共地风险",给集群品牌带来破坏。为规避集群品牌风险,需要企业、政府和中介机构等多方面共同努力,通过申请注册集群商标、完善质量认证监督体系、多渠道开展集群品牌营销活动、集体应对贸易摩擦等措施来做好集群品牌的发展与维护工作。     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.     

成本收益、风险规避与人力资本投资

人力资本的投资可根据当时的利息率计算贴现值的方法进行决策.若需要用于投资的资本小于用期望收益算出的贴现值,则进行人力资本投资则为明智的选择.加大对人力资本的投资力度、人力资本的合理有效的组合和采取激励政策和规则可以规避人力资本投资风险.人力资本投资的的载体为具有主观能动性的人.要想投资取得成功,除了借助经济学方法做出正确的投资选择外还要充分调动被投资者--"人"的主观能动性.     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.     

Optimal Digital Rights Management with Uncertain Piracy

Many firms that sell digital copies of copyrighted materials online face a common dilemma: the use of digital rights management (DRM) to impede pirates can impose restrictions on legitimate use. We introduce a two‐period model in which the use of DRM in the first period affects the probability that a consumer finds a pirated copy in the second period; the threat of legal action reduces consumers’ consumption of pirated copies; and firms choose whether to sell, and at what prices, either strongly or weakly DRM‐protected products, or both. Furthermore, we incorporate the role of uncertainty concerning future levels of piracy. Using a two‐period model with uncertainty, we investigate a firm's optimal DRM strategies and present the optimal pricing strategy as well as product launch strategy under different market conditions. We find that one important characteristic of the optimal strategy is that it is optimal to maintain the same product line configuration strategy for both periods. We also characterize the conditions under which each strategy is optimal.