Fluctuating capacity of policy advice in Russia: testing theory in developing country context

ABSTRACT

Theories and concepts developed and empirically tested in the context of North American and Western European countries do not always easily transfer to another political landscape. The concept of “policy advisory system” is not an exception. On the one hand, policy processes and policy styles are not unique for each country; therefore, some generalizations can be made. On the other hand, studding particularities of policy process in a specific country can enrich theories, developed for general cases. Applying existing theories to a new context also goes a long way in verification and potential falsification – the fundamental requirement for a scientific process. This article aims to contribute to the debate on the topic of policy advisory system by comparing the development of three policies in Russia, each involving policy advisors to some extent. Based on this analysis, lessons are drawn regarding the conditions under which policy advisors can impact policy changes in an environment, alternative to “western.”     

关于“符号分析人员”的辨析

符号分析人员是指"从事解决问题、识别问题和战略经纪活动的人",接近但不等同于美国职业分类中"专业人员"的含义。他们既是知识经济和全球化的催生儿,也是它们的产物和受益者。由于知识成为决定性的生产要素,符号分析人员在经济和政治方面逐渐取得统治地位,形成了一个独立的"知识阶级",对现代西方社会的阶级结构以及当代资本主义的未来发展都将产生重要影响。     

The illusion of independence: Spun-off firms’ risk-taking as a function of status and attachment to the parent firm

This paper examines the post-divestiture behavior of spun-off firms. Drawing on the spin-off literature and middle-status conformity theory, we argue that spun-off firms—as newly independent and publicly traded firms—tend to limit their risk-taking behavior to match the expectations of a crucial audience, i.e., security analysts. Following the logic of middle-status conformity theory, we hypothesize that firms with mid-level status are particularly susceptible to analysts' pressures, whereas high- and low-status firms are free to take greater risks. Crucially, however, we propose that this relationship is less pronounced for spun-off firms that are more attached to their parent firms, as formal and informal linkages between these two types of firms can endure beyond the separation and limit spun-off firms' independence. Using a dataset of 102 spin-off transactions occurring between 1995 and 2010, we find empirical support for a U-shaped relationship between spun-off firms' status and risk-taking. This relationship is attenuated when spun-off firms are more attached to their parents. We contribute to the spin-off literature by demonstrating that a spun-off firm's post-divestiture behavior is determined by the capital market audience's expectations and the attachment to the parent firm. In so doing, we also contribute to the literature on middle-status conformity theory by identifying a boundary condition of the theory. Additionally, we make a methodological contribution by combining ideas from the spin-off and institutional theory literature to develop a particularly comprehensive measure of attachment.     

中国股评家的羊群行为研究

鉴于中国股评家在证券市场中的特殊地位和羊群行为在我国证券市场中广泛存在且对 市场的效率有重要影响等情况,建立了中国股评家大盘预测的羊群行为的检验模型,分别研究 股评家羊群行为的存在性、影响羊群行为的因素和羊群行为的理性特征. 主要结论为:股评家 对舆论有明显的羊群行为;当历史收益率增加、市场乐观情绪高涨、股评家预测的一致程度增 加、股评家的能力降低、股评家的初始声誉增大时,股评家参与羊群行为的动机增加. 股评家羊 群行为的理性研究指出,当舆论被事后的收益率证明为错误时,羊群行为反而增加. 因此股评 家的羊     

经济政策不确定性与公司社会责任信息披露

基于2008—2017年我国A股上市公司样本和中国经济政策不确定性指数,考察了经济政策不确定性对公司社会责任信息披露的影响。研究表明,当经济政策不确定性上升时,公司自愿发布社会责任报告的积极性显著增加,社会责任信息披露质量也显著提高。进一步研究发现,公司销售存在中介效应,经济政策不确定性减少了公司销售业绩,促使公司自愿发布社会责任报告的意愿提高,社会责任信息披露质量提升;而分析师关注存在掩饰效应,经济政策不确定性削弱了分析师关注,导致公司自愿发布社会责任报告的意愿减少,社会责任信息披露质量降低。此外,在产权性质、市场制度环境不同的公司中,经济政策不确定性与公司社会责任信息披露的关系存在异质性。经济政策不确定性并非公司提高社会责任信息披露的内在驱动因素,该信息披露决策只是公司在销售业绩下滑时的相机决策。因此,监管部门制定可以从本质上促进上市公司社会责任信息披露的政策才是长久之计。     

Customers’ Capital Market Information Quality and Suppliers’ Performance

We empirically examine the association between downstream firms’, i.e., customers’ capital market information quality, and the operating performance of upstream firms, i.e., suppliers. Customers’ capital market information quality is measured by the customers’ provision of earnings forecasts, the customers’ reported earnings quality, and the customers’ coverage by financial analysts and credit rating agencies. We hypothesize and find a positive association between customers’ capital market information quality and suppliers’ operating performance measured by the DuPont profitability ratios. The association is stronger for suppliers with higher sales volatility, no order backlogs, customers who are less dependent on their input, and shorter business relation with customers. Collectively, the results suggest that the quality of information provided by the customers to the capital market has a spillover effect in the input market, i.e., helps the suppliers improve their performance.     

A bayesian analysis for less smooth departures from polynomial regression models

Observations y_i are made at points t_i according to the model _i=θ(t_i)+e_i where the e_i are independent normals with constant variance. It is conjec tured that the function θ lies in a set G of functions spanned by the basis functions φ₁,φ₂,…,φ_p. A prior distribution is developed whereby the proba bility assigned to a function θ is a decreasing function of a particular measure of the distance of θ from the set G. Bayes' theorem is used to construct an estimateθ. A marginal likelihood is derived which is used to estimate the parameter of the prior and also for testing the null hypothesis H_o θ ? G. The new methodology is tested in a Monte Carlo study and applied to a set of data representing the average weight to height ratio of a group of boys recorded at one month intervals.     

国外资本市场会计研究述评

国外资本市场会计研究起源于对会计盈余与股价回报的关系讨论,这些讨论表明会计盈余能够传递影响股价的信息,但是研究模型的解释力不足导致随后寻求更加精确预测盈余的模型和方法;大量的研究证据表明市场在处理信息过程中可能是非有效的,表现为市场对会计信息的反应不足或反应过度;基于非理性行为假设的行为金融研究成为目前及今后研究的主流方向之一。国外研究成果极大地拓展了我们的视野,不仅为会计准则的制定者以及资本市场的监管者提供了宝贵的经验证据,而且极大地促进了新兴资本市场会计研究的迅猛发展。然而,我们应该清醒地认识到:中国的制度背景以及证券市场迥然有异于西方发达国家,尤其我国资本市场带有明显的转轨经济与新兴市场烙印,因此,国外的研究成果在中国的适用性如何尚有待进一步的研究。     

利益冲突下的证券分析师跟进行为研究——基于面板数据的实证研究

现实中的证券分析师无时无刻不处于证券市场的利益链条之上,这使得其研究的独立性与客观性会受到利益冲突行为的影响。文章在对利益冲突与分析师跟进行为之间关系进行理论分析的基础上,以2008年1月到2010年12月共12个季度的A股市场1171家上市公司的8432个跟进数据为样本,通过构建面板数据的固定效应变截矩模型,进行实证检验。结果表明：机构投资者持股比例越高,即来自内部的利益冲突压力越大,分析师跟进人数越多;而高管持股变动对分析师跟进行为的影响效果不显著。本文的研究不仅丰富了有关分析师跟进的理论研究,而且也为监管部门出台相关政策规范分析师行业的发展提供了新的决策参考。     

会计稳健性是否会影响分析师盈余预测行为——来自中国证券市场的证据

已有研究显示分析师通常在公司盈余发布之前做出乐观预测而导致预测偏差。运用中国A股市场的数据,检验分析师进行盈余预测时是否考虑到会计稳健性的相关信息。以不对称时间及时性(AT)和资产负债表准备金(BSR)作为会计稳健性代理变量,采用最小二乘法和最小绝对值偏差法等方法,在控制了一些被认为是影响分析师预测误差的因素后,发现分析师预测并未考虑到不对称时间及时性("好消息"和"坏消息")影响,且预测误差与资产负债表准备金额呈负关联。研究表明没有考虑到会计稳健性是中国证券分析师盈余预测偏差的一个原因。