Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

雄安新区科技企业创新能力评价研究

科技企业是实现科技创新的驱动者和科技成果转化的重要载体,也是推动研究开发的重要参与者,科学评价科技企业创新能力有助于企业自身不断发展壮大。在分析国内外新区科技企业创新驱动发展相关理论研究的基础上,从研发投入、研发基础、研发效益和现代科技四个角度,运用层次分析法构建科技企业创新能力评价系统,并通过实证分析说明评价系统的可靠性;根据评价系统测算出现阶段雄安新区科技企业创新能力,通过与成熟新区科技企业的比较,发现其短板和不足,力图为决策者科学合理评价、管理科技企业创新发展提供有益参考。     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

从社会文化价值因素和社会结构看中国近代科学落后的原因——李约瑟难题再探

半个世纪以来 ,李约瑟博士提出的难题 ,引起了我国学者的热烈讨论。本文仅从中国社会文化价值因素和社会结构的角度对中国近代科学落后的原因进行再探讨。中国近代社会是封建专制、封闭禁锢的社会结构 ,其特征是高度集权、封闭禁锢、以人治代替法制 ,这种社会结构形成了一种内向的、稳定的、隔绝的文化机制。因此 ,阻碍了中国近代科学的发展。     

当代西方关于全球性问题的哲理反思

当代人类面临种种全球性问题,科技社会效应的两重性空前突出。当代西方思想界出现了一场科技悲观论与科技乐观论的激烈论争。对这场极具哲理性的争论应给予全面分析并加以总结,这将有助于马克思主义的科技价值论和生态哲学观的深化和发展。     

简论中国共产党科教兴国战路思想产生的依据

中国共产党科教兴国的战略思想,建立在马克思主义科学理论基础之上,扎根于中华民族优秀传统文化的沃土;是当代中国社会实践发展的客观要求。这一战略的制定有其理论、历史和现实的依据。     

“科玄论战”对中国文化哲学思潮发展的影响

“科玄论战”作为一个极富有象征意义的文化哲学事件 ,深刻地影响着 2 0世纪中国文化哲学思潮发展的走向。“科玄论战”中玄学派、科学派、唯物史观派所论争问题及其言说方式对 2 0世纪中国保守主义、自由主义、唯物史观诸派文化哲学的影响以及“科玄论战”中三方话语的撒播带来的 2 0世纪中国文化哲学思潮发展的内在困境及其消除的理路 ,表明对“科玄论战”的历史反思仍将对 2 1世纪中国哲学发展产生影响。