Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

不同冷链服务模式下生鲜农产品供应链决策

基于单物流服务商、单供应商和单零售商构成的生鲜农产品供应链，构建3种冷链服务模式：承诺模式、提前要求模式与延后要求模式，探讨不同冷链服务模式对定价与冷链服务水平、企业绩效的影响。研究发现：某种冷链服务模式是否有利于消减数量与质量损耗依赖于产品易腐性、冷链服务成本及其分担比例。供应链成员无法在承诺模式与提前要求模式下形成统一的模式偏好。当物流服务商承担的冷链服务成本比例较低时，相比于提前要求模式，供应商偏好承诺模式，否则，偏好提前要求模式。承诺模式比提前要求模式更有利于物流服务商，然而对于零售商，结果正好相反。数值实验表明，虽然供应链成员无法对冷链服务模式形成整体的一致性偏好，但仍可实现局部的一致性偏好。     

中国医疗机构定价中的问题及对策建议

医疗机构医疗服务定价需要考虑因素是医疗卫生行业管理的一个重要内容,合理有效定价对实现社会公平和福利分配,保障居民生命健康、促进社会稳定的具有重要的现实意义。本文对国内外医疗定价的几种主要模式进行简要介绍,然后分析一下我国现行医疗服务定价存在问题的原因,并给出几点改革建议,讨论需要建立一个合理的定价体系和监管体系需要考虑因素。     

国际转移定价及其税务规制研究

我国加入WTO后,跨国公司大举进军中国市场,国际转移定价滥用问题日益突出。我国应该采取措施,强化转移定价滥用行为监督管理意识,完善转移定价税制,建立和健全审计制度,改善监管手段,同时加强国际合作,加大对转移定价滥用行为的监管和惩处力度。     

Estimation of Metabolic Rate Constants in PBPK‐Models from Liver Slice Experiments: What Are the Experimental Needs?

A mechanistic model is presented describing the clearance of a compound in a precision-cut liver slice that is incubated in a culture medium. The problem of estimating metabolic rate constants in PBPK models from liver slice experiments is discussed using identifiability analysis. From the identifiability problem analysis, it appears that in addition to the clearance, the compound's free fraction in the slice and the diffusion rate of the exchange of the compound between culture medium and liver slice should be identified. In addition, knowledge of the culture medium volume, the slice volume, the compound's free fraction, and octanol-water-based partition between medium and slice is presupposed. The formal solution for identification is discussed from the perspective of experimental practice. A formally necessary condition for identification is the sampling of parent compound in liver slice or culture medium. However, due to experimental limitations and errors, sampling the parent compound in the slice together with additional sampling of metabolite pooled from the medium and the slice is required for identification in practice. Moreover, it appears that identification results are unreliable when the value of the intrinsic clearance exceeds the value of the diffusion coefficient, a condition to be verified a posteriori.     

市场结构与企业定价研究

本文首先从分析影响企业定价的市场结构入手 ,研究了处于不同市场结构环境中的企业定价战略 ,继而结合案例分析了不同市场结构的企业定价策略和技巧 ,特别是给出了几种实用的定量定价方法。在研究各种定价策略的基础上 ,提出了一个实用有效的定价程序。此外 ,本文还用博弈论的观点重点分析了寡头垄断市场的定价策略     

高校资产证券化探讨

高校扩招造成了教学经费不足。目前在全国几乎找不到没有银行贷款的高校，随着“银校间热恋的甜蜜时期”的结束，如何如期还贷，如何进一步融资成为众多高校重大的财政问题，本研究给出了高校收费资产证券化方法，不仅将未来缺乏流通的现金流变现，解决了未来现金流收入与还贷期限结构的不匹配，而且融资成本低。本研究给出了资产证券化的一般组织结构和流程，并对我国高校收费证券化进行了定价。     

基础设施定价与城市规模的经济分析

建立了基础设施与城市规模的时间序列动态模型，分析基础设施市场化运营中，因定价收费方式不同，理论上对城市最优规模的影响。对比分析了基础设施以边际成本定价和以平均成本定价的区别，用数值模拟的方法，得出按照基础设施边际成本定价，有利于获得最优的城市规模和实现城市收益最大化的结论，并为城市发展提供了相应对策。     

中国生丝对外贸易定价的实证分析

本文通过建立中国生丝的对外贸易模型,对中国生丝出口的各种弹性进行实验实证,进而分析生丝出口的经济效益并探讨中国生丝出口定价原则.认为,在制定生丝的出口价格时,丛须考虑中国生丝外汇收入对出口价格弹性低的特点,保持出口价格的相对稳定.     

Violations of dominance in pricing judgments

The dominance principle states that the judged price of gamble A should be equal to or greater than the judged price of gamble B whenever A's outcomes are equal to or better than the corresponding outcomes of B, holding everything else constant. Subjects often violate the dominance principle by assigning a higher price to a gamble with some probability of winning a positive amount, Y, otherwise zero, than to a superior gamble with the same chances of winning Y, otherwise winning X. Violations also occur with losses. Results are consistent with a configural-weight theory in which the decision weight for each outcome depends on the rank of the outcome with respect to the other outcomes in the lottery and the value of the outcome (zero vs. nonzero).The authors thank Shi-jie Chang, Duncan Luce, and Lisa Ordóñez for comments on an earlier draft. This research was supported by a National Science Foundation grant to the first author (BNS-8451368). Requests for reprints should be sent to Barbara Mellers, Dept. of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.