考虑属性关联的两阶段获胜者确定模型

研究了多属性逆向拍卖的获胜者确定问题。考虑属性之间的两两关联，以定义在2-可加模糊测度上的Choquet积分表达拍卖人的偏好，其中模糊测度的值由拍卖人提供的偏好信息推测得出。由于一般情况下与偏好信息一致的模糊测度取值并不唯一，考虑所有一致的评分函数提出了两阶段获胜者确定方法。首先采用线性规划挑选出在任意评分函数下可能获胜的报价，再通过混合整数规划确定一个与所有一致的评分函数的评价结果最为接近的报价排序，以得分最高者为稳健获胜报价。仿真实验表明，大量的报价为不可能获胜报价，说明了在第一阶段进行筛选的必要性。与现有方法的比较表明了该方法的有效性，且在拍卖轮数较大、报价数目较多时，该方法在计算效率上更有优势。     

英美国家的专家证据制度与我国专家证据制度的建立

专家证据是随着科技进步而广泛运用的证据形式。英美法系国家的专家证人制度将专家视为一种特殊证人较有特色。专家证人以鉴定结论或专家意见等多种形式向法庭提供证据 ,强调专家证人的公正性、独立性 ,通过交叉询问进行审查。而我国专家证据仅有鉴定结论一种形式 ,既不科学 ,又不能满足实际需要。借鉴英美国家的经验与教训 ,建立我国以鉴定结论为主、以专家证言为补充的专家证据制度势在必行     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

加拿大高等教育的特色与启示

加拿大高等教育的特点主要体现在管理体制和教育教学两个方面,包括:联邦政府不设教育部;分为大学和学院两个系统;多样化的联合办学模式;完全学分制;宽口径厚基础的课程体系;启发式的教学模式,等等.加拿大高等教育给予我们的启示有:树立以人为本的办学理念,实施完全学分制;理性思考学校定位,开展多渠道合作办学;整体优化培养方案,实施启发式教学方法;建立科学的高校内部评价体系,等等.     

基于规则的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统

研究了一种用于发动机磨损状态监测与故障诊断的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统 (ES)。首先讨论了诊断知识的获取与规则表示方法 ,接着根据面向对象模板化设计思想 ,研究了一种知识库、推理机和人机界面的一体化构造策略 ,并在此基础上引入深度优先搜索、反向引导正向控制的启发性推理机制     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

基于知识的客户关系研究

本文认为知识是流动的 ,而且它会超越组织边界 ,使企业与客户之间形成知识互动的合作伙伴关系。全文从知识和关系紧紧联系在一起 ,构成了可持续竞争优势的唯一源泉和知识向客户转移 ,即知识向客户流动的结果 ,使客户更加知识化并产生增值 ,其本身又会导致更深层的客户关系 ,而开发客户关系又提高了知识的双向转移等方面进行了论述。得出结论 :开发客户关系最终与知识共享是难以分离的     

论审理医疗纠纷案件对美国法庭“专家证人制度”的借鉴——由中美两个案例比较谈起

近阶段,医疗纠纷冲突凸显,大量的矛盾往往最终汇集到法院。而审理医疗纠纷案件时,法官面临诸多法律困境,尤其是科学证据的采纳问题。分析认为,借鉴美国"专家证人"制度,人民法院应设立"专家辅助人",可以较为有效地解决这些问题。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.