Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents’ perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.     

Scrambled systems: the (im)mobilities of ‘storm Desmond’

This article examines a 3-day blackout, triggered by a ‘1-in-100-year’ rainfall event. Storms and floods account for almost three-quarters of weather-related disasters, and are typically accompanied by cascading infrastructure failures, which pattern and amplify their effects in highly significant ways. Such disruptions reveal aspects of everyday life that ordinarily remain obscure, including capacities for resilience embodied in people, cities and infrastructure. The article proposes that disruption events be understood in terms of ‘scrambles’, as they involve abrupt demobilisation and remobilisation of a range of people and materials. The article firstly examines the astonishing capacity for failure latent in ‘pervasively powered’ arrangements, as well as the many ways in which people and things were ‘scrambled’ in response. The article then proceeds to explore the ways in which vulnerabilities result in part from mobilisation in response to previous disruption events, before examining the ‘circuits’ that link far-flung places in mobile disaster geographies, global patterns of electricity dependence, the rise of data overload in the ‘cloud’ to carbon overload in the atmosphere. The article concludes by presenting further evidence in support of the thesis that disruptions and disasters are part of a ‘new normal’, and what this means for prevailing sociotechnical arrangements reliant on ‘sunk’ infrastructure.     

“Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood”: Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder‐area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods.     

嘉庆六年京畿特大水灾生态原因及历史教训探析

嘉庆六年（1801）永定河决口，酿成五百年一遇的特大洪水。京畿直隶一带一百三十余个州县中，受灾地区达九十多个，堤防崩坍，房屋被毁，灾民流离失所，农作物减产绝收，给国家建设和人民生活带来重大损伤。此次灾害的原因既有17世纪全球整体气候变化所导致的极端天气，也有永定河特殊的地理情况，更有长期不当垦荒和滥砍滥伐所导致的严重的水土流失等原因。反思此次特大水灾的生态原因及历史教训，对于历史上整体大气候特别是极端气候的归纳分析，以及对今天的森林资源保护与正确开发等问题都具有重要的借鉴意义。     

洪灾应急管理中的府际合作模式研究

我国的洪灾应急管理已经建立起较为完善的防汛指挥体系,但实际行动中仍然存在基层组织行动拖沓、响应不及时的情况,为此,运用演化博弈对洪灾应急管理中的府际合作模式展开研究,根据政府主体间是否存在隶属关系,将错综复杂的府际关系拆分成纵向和横向两个维度,分别建立博弈模型。综合分析演化结果,得出结论：纵向层级府际关系中的上级政府强化监督是达成洪灾应急管理府际间积极合作的必要条件。     

清直隶澧州水旱灾害及治理

清直隶澧州地处环洞庭湖,特殊的地理位置和自然生态环境,加之人为因素,使澧州水旱灾害频繁发生。清政府采取蠲免、赈济、抚恤之策安抚灾民,通过修建城池堤垸、置设塘汛、设仓积储等方式赈灾抚民。但由于无力应对自然环境的变化,无法有效解决人地矛盾,没有处理好人与江湖之间的关系,以及制度性障碍,水旱灾害的治理效果不是十分明显,灾情未得到有效缓解。     

最近30年水旱灾害对中国大陆地区粮食减产的影响分析

粮食减产是水旱灾害对中国粮食生产最直接的影响。文章通过建立粮食减产率和减产量计算公式,设定水旱灾害造成的粮食减产等级划分标准。首先,分析中国大陆地区最近30年农作物水旱灾害受灾面积、成灾面积情况和在不同省、市、自治区的年均分布情况;然后,分析中国大陆地区最近30年粮食水旱灾害受灾率、成灾率、减产率、减产量情况和在不同省、市、自治区的年均分布情况;最后,提出防治水旱灾害的建议。     

Islamisation and activism of a Muslim NGO in Pakistan: Jama'at‐ud‐Da'wa as a case study

This paper locates the study of Jamat‐ud‐Da'wa (JUD) within the context of global political developments. Premised on the nexus between the local and the global developments, it discusses how changes in the domestic or international arena shaped the policies of JUD after 9/11. It argues that, as a successor to the Lashker‐e‐Toiba in Pakistan, the JUD has been active in the social welfare space. It has moved into roles that reside in the domain of the state's responsibility but have passed to the private sector due to the state's failure to meet the needs of its citizens, including the provision of education and relief and rescue efforts after natural disasters. Though not categorically identified as being part of the jihadi agenda, this activism increases the appeal of the JUD among Pakistani citizens, with a possibility of increasing their declared and/or active support for JUD's views on Pakistan's foreign policy.     

Bangkok flooded: re(assembling) disaster mobility

ABSTRACT

The paper investigates mobility options and practices of irregular migrant workers and international urban refugees during the 2011 flood in Bangkok, Thailand. Contributing to debates on disaster mobility and climate change induced displacement, the paper explores how citizenship and racialized differences unfolded during the flood event and how such differences had (de)mobilising effects for specific subgroups of Bangkok’s irregular population. Drawing on the concepts of assemblage and affect the paper proposes to perceive of race as emergent within concrete interactions between bodies, rather than a pre-given social category or a purely discursive trope. From this perspective the body itself may become a repository to subvert or manipulate racialized perceptions. The paper argues that approaching race as an emerging assemblage helps to shed light both on the demobilising effects race had on people’s mobility as well as on the fleeting moments of generosity and care between people that proliferated alongside such demobilisations.     

Buttressing Supply Chains against Floods in Asia for Humanitarian Relief and Economic Recovery

Floods are the most frequent category of disasters worldwide. Among all geographic regions, Asia has suffered the most. While there are several ongoing humanitarian efforts and initiatives, we believe there is a new opportunity to coordinate “last mile” humanitarian efforts in the event of a flood using micro‐retailers. Because micro‐retailers are the “last mile” nodes in traditional retail supply chains in many Asian countries, we propose the use of social enterprise to buttress these supply chains for distribution of essential goods by coordinating with micro‐retailers before and after floods. We also present a stylized model to quantify the benefits of doing so.