关于建立股指期货交易制度的构想

随着中国正式加入WTO ,推出股票指数期货已是确定的方向。目前中国建立股指期货交易制度不仅是必要的 ,也是可行的。股指期货作为一种金融创新产品 ,它的建立首先必须有统一交易场所 ,科学设计合约 ,同时也要进一步规范现货市场 ,培育交易主体 ,引入做空机制 ,规范会员结构 ,健全监管制度     

Robustness of a Class of Partial Diallel Cross Designs to the Unavailability of a Complete Block of Observations

Complete and partial diallel cross designs are examined as to their construction and robustness against the loss of a block of observations. A simple generalized inverse is found for the information matrix of the line effects, which allows evaluation of expressions for the variances of the line-effect differences with and without the missing block. A-efficiencies, based on average variances of the elementary contrasts of the line-effects, suggest that these designs are fairly robust. The loss of efficiency is generally less than 10%, but it is shown that specific comparisons might suffer a loss of efficiency of as much as 40%.     

Profile of Some Patients Who Prematurely Terminate Analysis

This paper is concerned with cases in which patients who have been well established in treatment decide to end it prematurely. In examining the issue among my patients who left against my advice, I isolated in some of them a number of common traits, of which the existence of a long-standing idealizing transference was central. Four of these cases are presented, including two in which the resistance was successfully penetrated and two in which it was not and the patient left treatment. The definition of premature termination is seen in the context of that of a complete analysis.     

WAPI之争的不完全信息博弈实质分析

WAPI(无线局域网加密标准)是中国针对国外标准存在的安全隐患,自主研发的对国外的主流标准构成强有力的挑战的无线局域网标准。该标准从宣布强制推行到再宣布推迟执行,充分反映了当今中国无线局域网市场上中外标准竞争的实质。基于产业组织理论的市场进入和阻止理论,分析了WAPI之争潜在的“连锁店悖论”性质,揭示了WAPI之争的不完全信息博弈实质,并据此探讨了我国在这场标准竞争中运用政策和策略的合理性。     

异质产品供应链定价控制权与零售商横向兼并效应分析

针对一部线性合约与供应商是否具有绝对定价控制权,比较分析零售商横向兼并集中度提高对消费者福利的影响.结果表明,(1)当供应商具有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于产品替代性程度大小:若替代性程度较高,则将产生有利影响,反之,将产生不利影响;(2)当供应商没有绝对定价控制权时,零售商横向兼并对消费者产生的影响取决于零售商兼并前的相对定价控制权强弱与兼并后的相对定价控制权增幅大小:若零售商在供应链中处于相对弱势地位,且零售商横向兼并使零售商的定价控制权增幅较大,则兼并将对消费者产生有利影响,否则,将对消费者产生不利影响.     

基于集成供应的RS契约协调模型研究

在由供应商和制造商组成的两级供应链中引入集成商,研究了需求不确定且价格敏感条件下基于集成供应的3级供应链的协调问题,建立了满足渠道协调条件和集成供应条件的RS契约协调模型,给出了模型中RS契约参数的取值范围和取值过程,并用实例加以说明。利用模型不仅可以确定产品的生产量和销售价格,而且还可以通过RS契约参数实现供应链利润的分配。     

在线双向拍卖中的不完全信息博弈仿真研究

双向拍卖机制能较好地解决在线拍卖中如何有效利用网络资源、减轻网络负荷的问题,而构造双向拍卖的报价模型和策略是其重要内容之一。从实验经济学方法的角度,构造了在线双向拍卖中不完全信息博弈下存在的贝叶斯—纳什均衡并求解,通过计算机仿真详细分析了该模型的特点和可行性,为高效利用网络资源、提高在线拍卖效率提供了可行的思路。     

Nonparametric analysis of treatment effects with missing observations

This paper develops a test for comparing treatment effects when observations are missing at random for repeated measures data on independent subjects. It is assumed that missingness at any occasion follows a Bernoulli distribution. It is shown that the distribution of the vector of linear rank statistics depends on the unknown parameters of the probability law that governs missingness, which is absent in the existing conditional methods employing rank statistics. This dependence is through the variance–covariance matrix of the vector of linear ranks. The test statistic is a quadratic form in the linear rank statistics when the variance–covariance matrix is estimated. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis. Several methods of estimating the unknown components of the variance–covariance matrix are considered. The estimate that produces stable empirical Type I error rate while maintaining the highest power among the competing tests is recommended for implementation in practice. Simulation studies are also presented to show the advantage of the proposed test over other rank-based tests that do not account for the randomness in the missing data pattern. Our method is shown to have the highest power while also maintaining near-nominal Type I error rates. Our results clearly illustrate that even for an ignorable missingness mechanism, the randomness in the pattern of missingness cannot be ignored. A real data example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Testing hypotheses for the growth curve model when the data are incomplete

Kleinbaum (1973) developed a generalized growth curve model for analyzing incomplete longitudinal data. In this paper the small sample properties of several related test statistics are investigated via Monte Carlo techniques. The covariance matrix is estimated by each of three non-iterative methods. The null and non-null distributions of these test statistics are examined.     

回鹘文契约上的倒写文字

回鹘文契约中有倒写文字 ,常见于纸背。某些突厥语专家对此现象未予重视 ,因而在一些专门著作中对它们既不作标记 ,也不转写 ,在译文中往往被省略。其实 ,这些倒写文字是不能被忽视的 ,它们是回鹘文契约附言中的一部分 ,形式上它可以溯源于吐鲁番出土唐代汉文文书 ,内容上它反映着宋元时代内地经济生活中的一些规矩。回鹘文契约中倒写文字的形式与内容所表现出的年代的不一致性 ,正是回鹘文契约及回鹘人文化的一种特点。