2001—2002赛季CBA与NBA技术统计的比较与分析

对 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2赛季CBA与NBA各项技术进行了统计比较与分析 ,建议CBA在应有的基础上继续努力 ,提高球员的身体素质和技术能力 .     

谈谈打击和防范邪教活动的对策

邪教活动是一种反人类、反科学、反政府的极端行为 ,是社会的一大公害。要打击和防范并最终铲除邪教活动 ,首先要加速《反邪教法》的制定 ;其次 ,要依法取缔邪教组织和惩治邪教犯罪活动 ;第三 ,要建立常设性反邪教组织机构 ,做好日常的反邪教工作 ;第四 ,要坚持教育与惩罚相结合 ,团结教育绝大多数被蒙蔽而参加邪教活动的成员 ;最后要坚持标本兼治、以防为主的综合治理措施。     

文化意象的有意误译

为了将中国文化介绍给英语读者 ,必须探讨文化意象的中译英问题。文化意象从一个载体转到另一个载体 ,难点在于译者既要准确表达原文的词义 ,又要使读者了解中国文化背景和理解隐含之意。如何克服翻译中的各种障碍与困难 ,看待有意误译的代价与价值 ,是文化研究中 ,值得深入研究的问题     

基于主动网的SYN攻击防御

针对目前传统网防御TCP同步泛滥攻击的服务器主机、路由器过滤、防火墙方法的局限性,利用主动网的动态特性,提出一种基于主动网的同步泛滥防御机制,并通过仿真实验将它与传统网环境下的防火墙防御进行了性能比较和分析,结果表明主动网技术为同步泛滥攻击提供了良好的防御性能。     

言语交际中的蓄意歧义现象及其解读

蓄意歧义是一种独特的语言艺术，为语言研究提供了新的语料，它体现了语音、词汇、语法、语用等规则。通过分析言语交际过程中产生的蓄意歧义现象及其制造的不同效果，可以促进语言使用者更好地了解整个语言体系，以及包含语用学、词汇学、语音学和语法在内的语言体系分支之间的关系。     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

论武术课教学中攻防实用技术的组织与教法

武术的动作都要求具有攻防技击特点,无论是套路演练形式,还是技击格斗形式,都是以踢、打、摔、拿、击和刺等技击法为主要内容。在教学过程中,对攻防实用技术、组织与教法的研究,应有它一套独特方法。从一般教学过程到特有的组织方法,以及必须坚持的几项原则进行学术探讨,对改革课堂教学模式,优化教学方法,提高技术功作质量,圆满地完成教学任务起着积极重要的作用。     

The Environmental Risks of Incomplete Globalisation

As the liberal optimism of the long 1990s has faded into a world of growing inequality and resurging nationalism, there is less certainty about the prospects of economic convergence and global integration. Beyond the formidable human cost of maintaining a divided world, the possibility of incomplete globalisation also gives rise to a number of environmental risks. While environmental political theory generally sees strength in localism, history rather shows that a robust world trade system is crucial to offset local resource scarcities and that cosmopolitan norms of solidarity are essential for helping communities to rebuild after environmental catastrophe. In relation to climate change, statist thinking has led to a focus on non-scalable technologies and a silent acceptance of chronic poverty abroad as a way of avoiding a climate emergency. Contrary to such views, this paper argues that accelerating the transition to a fully integrated high-energy planet may more effectively mitigate Anthropocene risks.     

基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习,造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈,采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法,得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后,结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析,比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明,根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值,政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析,不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程,而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

Analysis of Blogs,Forums, and Social Networks

It is impossible to imagine the contemporary Internet without social media. Government agents, commercial, state, and social organizations, the opposition, and other citizens use social media as a giant turbine. Unfortunately, this turbine can also be used to spread disinformation as well as hostile propaganda on a mass scale. In this article we show how vulnerable social media are to infiltration by botnets with the goal of launching information attacks.