当前国际形势和世界战略格局

“9·1 1”事件和“打恐”战争爆发后 ,国际形势发生了深刻变化。大国关系基本稳定 ,并趋于改善和发展。大国安全观念发生重大变化 ,集体安全和南北问题开始受到西方国家的重视。和平、缓和、发展和稳定的国际形势遇到了极大挑战。美国的单边主义和全球战略攻势阻止不了世界多极化进程和世界和平与发展的总趋势     

Information and communications technologies, strategic asymmetry and national security

In the history of warfare, there are a number of examples of strategic uses of asymmetric technologies. Consistent with history and theory, individuals, organizations and nations have spotted opportunities to employ information and communications technologies to gain and exploit asymmetric advantages and to counter asymmetric weaknesses. This article discusses various asymmetries associated with institutions, nations and organizations that influence the ICT-national security nexus. Regulative, normative and cognitive institutions in a country provide various mechanisms that affect the nature of positive and negative asymmetries. Nations and organizations also differ in terms of their capability to assimilate ICT tools to gain positive asymmetries and deal with vulnerabilities of negative asymmetries. Integrative approaches that combine policy and technological measures at various levels are likely to make the world more secure.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

Tilting at windmills: a cynical assemblage of the crises of knowledge

The essay offers one piece of a larger conjunctural analysis, in an effort to contribute to a better story of the contemporary organic crisis. It considers three elements of the complexity of the ‘crises’ of knowledge: First, it explores the increasingly felt social perception that knowledge (and the forms of authority that accompany it) has become less determined and determining, less identifiable, less effective, more troubled. It argues that one must think about these developments historically and contextually, rather than going along with the panic that has surrounded their increasing visibility in recent political events. Second, it considers some of the attacks on the university as well as some of the recent changes in the political economy and institutional forms of the academy. Finally, it argues that academics have failed to examine their own contributions to the crises of knowledge, failed to consider the ways their own cultures and practices can be located within rather than against the crises of knowledge.     

"9·11"事件后美国反恐战略对南亚安全格局的影响

“9.11”事件及布什政府的反恐战略推动美国关注南亚地区的安全与稳定,同时印度与巴基斯坦围绕克什米尔的争端成为美国必须面对的重要挑战。印度、巴基斯坦加入反恐盟约并不能使印巴危机缓解,在美国反恐战略和印巴“核因素”的双重制约下,2002年印巴军事对峙最后成为双方解决争端、实现和平的难得机会,致使“9.11”事件及其后续发展成为推动南亚和平进程的重要催化剂。     

受免疫原理启发的Web攻击检测方法

随着Internet应用的不断深入,Web服务器成为了黑客的主要攻击目标。为克服传统误用入侵检测系统无法识别未知Web攻击和异常入侵检测系统误报率高等缺陷,受生物免疫系统启发,该文提出了一种基于免疫原理的Web攻击检测方法。给出了自体、非自体、抗原、抗体基因库、免疫细胞等的数学定义,描述了免疫学习算法。对比实验结果表明该方法较传统的基于神经网络和ID3算法的Web攻击检测技术能有效检测未知Web攻击,具有检测率和分类率高、误报率低和实时高效等特点,是检测Web攻击的一种有效新途径。     

Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety-Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization-Based Decision-Making Approach

An empirical classification model based on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR-Sort) method has been previously proposed by the authors to evaluate the vulnerability of safety-critical systems (in particular, nuclear power plants [NPPs]) with respect to malevolent intentional acts. In this article, the model serves as the basis for an analysis aimed at determining a set of protective actions to be taken (e.g., increasing the number of monitoring devices, reducing the number of accesses to the safety-critical system) in order to effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the safety-critical systems under consideration. In particular, the problem is here tackled within an optimization framework: the set of protective actions to implement is chosen as the one minimizing the overall level of vulnerability of a group of safety-critical systems. In this context, three different optimization approaches have been explored: (i) one single classification model is built to evaluate and minimize system vulnerability; (ii) an ensemble of compatible classification models, generated by the bootstrap method, is employed to perform a “robust” optimization, taking as reference the “worst-case” scenario over the group of models; (iii) finally, a distribution of classification models, still obtained by bootstrap, is considered to address vulnerability reduction in a “probabilistic” fashion (i.e., by minimizing the “expected” vulnerability of a fleet of systems). The results are presented and compared with reference to a fictitious example considering NPPs as the safety-critical systems of interest.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks Against a Single Target

A target is protected by the defender and attacked by an attacker launching sequential attacks. For each attack, a contest intensity measures whether the agents’ efforts have low or high impact on the target vulnerability (low vs. high contest intensity). Both the defender and the attacker have limited resources. It is assumed that the attacker can observe the outcome of each attack and stop the sequence of attacks when the target is destroyed. Two attacker objectives are considered, that is, to maximize the target vulnerability or to minimize the expected attacker resource expenditure. The article addresses the following three questions: whether the attacker should allocate its entire resource into one large attack or distribute it among several attacks; whether geometrically increasing or decreasing resource distribution into a fixed number of sequential attacks is more beneficial than equal resource distribution; and how the optimal attack strategy depends on the contest intensity.     

也谈中晚唐五代别头试与子弟之争

中晚唐新旧士族斗争不断。在子弟登科问题上，双方利用一些科场事件制造事端，以获得各自子弟登科的最大利益。随着党争的强弱分化，代表科举出身的新官僚牛党全胜，子弟问题逐渐变成了官僚阶层内部利益分割的问题，从而逐渐淡化。唐末五代的战乱对新旧士族官僚打击最大，子弟在科举考试中的优势地位随之被消弱，科举考试逐渐向公平、公正的方向发展。     

Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010

We interpret the emergence of Jihadist terrorism in the light of contest theory. Al Qaeda may be portrayed as a contest organizer, providing a ‘prize’ to the best terrorist group. Each group maximizes its probability of winning by launching attacks more destructive than previous ones perpetrated by competing groups. This hypothesis is confirmed by the empirical analysis which shows that the number of victims of terrorist attacks increases compared to number of victims of previous attacks in the same country. An upward trend in terrorist brutality is the outcome of competition between groups. Results also show that Al Qaeda-style terrorism is associated with poverty and underprivileged socio-economic conditions.