A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Negotiating Accessibility for Electronic Resources

Abstract

Accessibility of library electronic resources is a must. Its importance derives from professional ethics of librarianship, rising total costs of acquisition, and mounting legal challenges to colleges and universities that fail to provide resources accessible to users with disabilities. Library staff are responsible for ensuring the accessibility of vendor-licensed eresources. This column reviews the accessibility clauses of nine model license agreements for electronic resources. It describes terms that should go into an optimal accessibility clause and creates a composite model clause. It also provides guidance for library staff seeking to negotiate stronger accessibility language into vendor license agreements. Finally, it addresses the impact of accommodation requests on the total cost of acquiring library eresources, concluding with a call to redouble efforts to advocate for greater accessibility and educate both vendors and library staff about its importance.     

Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

从WTO规则析我国农业国内支持制度的完善

WTO相关协议允许各国采用一定的农业国内支持措施，尤其是《农产品协定》的绿箱条款更指明了农业国内支持的方向。我国在入世协议中也对农业国内支持作了承诺。为此，要发展农业，应在遵守上述WTO规则的基础上逐步完善我国现行的农业国内支持制度。     

Challenge of multi-level governance in developing countries and possible GIS applications

Of the three most prominent issues in governance discourse—the horizontal coordination of markets, government hierarchies and networks, global governance and multi-level governance—this paper argues that the last, developing and sustaining structures of multi-level governance, constitutes the most profound governance challenge for most developing countries.The paper identifies the major forces promoting change in favor of multi-level governance in developing countries. Using the growing literature and comparative national experiences (illustrated with the examples of India, the Philippines, Colombia and Nigeria), it highlights the key achievements of democratic decentralization as well as its nagging problems in these countries. Finally, the paper demonstrates the significance of these developments for democracy and development in these countries and shows some of the ways by which external partners—especially experts associated with the Geographic Information Systems for Developing Countries can assist and possibly benefit from this process.     

'Polyphonic' welfare: Luhmann's systems theory applied to modern social work

This article applies a series of concepts from Niklas Luhmann's systems theory in an analysis of modern welfare organisations. The point of departure is that social help in late modern welfare states has become 'polycentric' in that 'help' is today being defined by various different agents: public, voluntary and private care providers. Empirically, this article investigates re-housing work with homeless people, a kind of social work which involves several different welfare organisations. The case study shows how these organisations define themselves by making internal constructions of their surroundings, and how their self-enclosed nature creates a certain 'insensitivity' towards one another. How to coordinate and translate within this 'polyphony' of incomparable observations and values represents a major managerial challenge for present-day social workers.     

社会支持在灾后心理危机干预中的作用

心理危机干预通过及时控制和减缓灾难的心理社会影响,促进了受灾者心理健康的重建。然而,当前我国灾区的心理干预工作存在着将心理危机干预与社会支持相混淆又相脱离的背反现象。调查和事实证实,只有实现二者的互动尤其是充分发挥社会支持系统的作用,才能够既促进灾后心理危机干预的专业性功能提升,又进一步增强实务工作的科学性和有效性。     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.