Economics of Radiation Protection: Equity Considerations

In order to implement cost-benefit analysis of protective actions to reduce radiological exposures, one needs to attribute a monetary value to the avoided exposure. Recently, the International Commission on Radiological Protection has stressed the need to take into consideration not only the collective exposure to ionising radiation but also its dispersion in the population. In this paper, by using some well known and some recent results in the economics of uncertainty, we discuss how to integrate these recommendations in the valuation of the benefit of protection.     

Optimal acceptance sampling for modules F and F1 of the European Measuring Instruments Directive

ABSTRACT

Acceptance sampling plans offered by ISO 2859-1 are far from optimal under the conditions for statistical verification in modules F and F1 as prescribed by Annex II of the Measuring Instruments Directive (MID) 2014/32/EU, resulting in sample sizes that are larger than necessary. An optimised single-sampling scheme is derived, both for large lots using the binomial distribution and for finite-sized lots using the exact hypergeometric distribution, resulting in smaller sample sizes that are economically more efficient while offering the full statistical protection required by the MID.     

Sequential experimental design and response optimisation

We consider the situation where one wants to maximise a functionf(θ,x) with respect tox, with θ unknown and estimated from observationsy _k . This may correspond to the case of a regression model, where one observesy _k =f(θ,x _k )+ε _k , with ε _k some random error, or to the Bernoulli case wherey _k ∈{0, 1}, with Pr[y _k =1|θ,x _k |=f(θ,x _k ). Special attention is given to sequences given by , with an estimated value of θ obtained from (x₁, y₁),...,(x _k ,y _k ) andd _k (x) a penalty for poor estimation. Approximately optimal rules are suggested in the linear regression case with a finite horizon, where one wants to maximize ∑ _i=1 ^N w _i f(θ, x _i ) with {w _i } a weighting sequence. Various examples are presented, with a comparison with a Polya urn design and an up-and-down method for a binary response problem.     

Constructing optimal designs for fitting pharmacokinetic models

We consider some computational issues that arise when searching for optimal designs for pharmacokinetic (PK) studies. Special factors that distinguish these are (i) repeated observations are taken from each subject and the observations are usually described by a nonlinear mixed model (NLMM), (ii) design criteria depend on the model fitting procedure, (iii) in addition to providing efficient parameter estimates, the design must also permit model checking, (iv) in practice there are several design constraints, (v) the design criteria are computationally expensive to evaluate and often numerical integration is needed and finally (vi) local optimisation procedures may fail to converge or get trapped at local optima.We review current optimal design algorithms and explore the possibility of using global optimisation procedures. We use these latter procedures to find some optimal designs.For multi-purpose designs we suggest two surrogate design criteria for model checking and illustrate their use.     

Multiobjective optimisation of production,distribution and capacity planning of global supply chains in the process industry

The performance of a supply chain should usually be measured by multiple criteria. We address production, distribution and capacity planning of global supply chains considering cost, responsiveness and customer service level simultaneously. A multiobjective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approach is developed with total cost, total flow time and total lost sales as key objectives. Also, two strategies to expand the formulation plants’ capacities are considered in the model. The ε-constraint method and lexicographic minimax method are used as solution approaches to tackle the multiobjective problem. Finally, a numerical example is investigated to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and solution approaches.     

Eco-efficient supply chain networks: development of a design framework and application to a real case study

This paper presents a supply chain network design framework that is based on multi-objective mathematical programming and that can identify ‘eco-efficient’ configuration alternatives that are both efficient and ecologically sound. This work is original in that it encompasses the environmental impact of both transportation and warehousing activities. We apply the proposed framework to a real-life case study (i.e. Lindt & Sprüngli) for the distribution of chocolate products. The results show that cost-driven network optimisation may lead to beneficial effects for the environment and that a minor increase in distribution costs can be offset by a major improvement in environmental performance. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge on eco-efficient supply chain design and closes the missing link between model-based methods and empirical applied research. It also generates insights into the growing debate on the trade-off between the economic and environmental performance of supply chains, supporting organisations in the eco-efficient configuration of their supply chains.     

On maximum likelihood estimation of the semi-parametric Cox model with time-varying covariates

Including time-varying covariates is a popular extension to the Cox model and a suitable approach for dealing with non-proportional hazards. However, partial likelihood (PL) estimation of this model has three shortcomings: (i) estimated regression coefficients can be less accurate in small samples with heavy censoring; (ii) the baseline hazard is not directly estimated and (iii) a covariance matrix for both the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard is not easily produced.We address these by developing a maximum likelihood (ML) approach to jointly estimate regression coefficients and baseline hazard using a constrained optimisation ensuring the latter''s non-negativity. We demonstrate asymptotic properties of these estimates and show via simulation their increased accuracy compared to PL estimates in small samples and show our method produces smoother baseline hazard estimates than the Breslow estimator.Finally, we apply our method to two examples, including an important real-world financial example to estimate time to default for retail home loans. We demonstrate using our ML estimate for the baseline hazard can give much clearer corroboratory evidence of the ‘humped hazard’, whereby the risk of loan default rises to a peak and then later falls.     

确定共轭向量的一种新方法—平行法

本文参照Powell直接法,提出了一种确定共轭向量的新方法。该方法能保证得到的共轭向量的线性独立性,而且所需要的一维搜索次数比Powell方法要少一半。在最优化运算中,该方法具有二次收敛性,一般说来,在运算速度上也比Powell方法要快一些。     

Partner selection for reverse logistics centres in green supply chains: a fuzzy artificial immune optimisation approach

The design of reverse logistics networks has now emerged as a major issue for manufacturers, not only in developed countries where legislation and societal pressures are strong, but also in developing countries where the adoption of reverse logistics practices may offer a competitive advantage. This paper presents a new model for partner selection for reverse logistic centres in green supply chains. The model offers three advantages. Firstly, it enables economic, environment and social factors to be considered simultaneously. Secondly, by integrating fuzzy set theory and artificial immune optimisation technology, it enables both quantitative and qualitative criteria to be considered simultaneously throughout the whole decision-making process. Thirdly, it extends the flat criteria structure for partner selection evaluation for reverse logistics centres to the more suitable hierarchy structure. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by means of an empirical application based on data from a Chinese electronic equipment and instruments manufacturing company.