Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

Pandemic Recovery Analysis Using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model^{( 1 , 2 )} and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).^{( 3 )} These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.     

On a Pandemic Threshold Theorem of the Early Kermack–McKendrick Model with Individual Heterogeneity

A pandemic threshold theorem of the Kermack–McKendrick epidemic system with individual heterogeneity is proved from the definition of R ₀ by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz. The early Kermack–McKendrick epidemic model is extended to recognize individual heterogeneity, where the state variable indicates an epidemiological state or genetic, physiological, or behavioral characteristics such as risk of infection. With the basic reproduction number R ₀ for the heterogeneous population, the final size equation of the limit epidemic starting from a completely susceptible steady state at t = ?∞ has a unique positive solution if and only if R ₀  > 1. The main result is that the positive solution of the final size equation gives the lower bound of the intensity of any epidemic starting from a host population composed of susceptible and a few infected individuals who spread on a noncompact domain of the trait variable.     

Drawing on Kinship Care Support for Older People during a Pandemic (COVID-19): Practice Considerations for Social Workers in Ghana

ABSTRACT

Undoubtedly, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has brought both systemic, practice changes and limitations to social workers’ commitment to the welfare of vulnerable populations such as older people. A golden preventive rule of the COVID-19 pandemic; maintaining physical and social distancing, has limited social workers’ direct practice support for older people who are considered as an at-risk population. Within jurisdictions such as Ghana where kinship care practices are culturally engrained, social workers should promote kinship care support as substitute mechanisms and pathways to safeguard or meet the welfare needs of older people.     

语言应急和应急语言

基于2020年我国发生的新冠肺炎疫情防控过程中语言服务的相关事实来观察语言应急和应急语言,讨论其与社会语言生活相关的一些问题。研究认为语言应急和应急语言具有不同的领域分野,语言应急侧重从社会行为视角进行观察,可以分为自发应急和自觉应急,其内部各有表现与特征;应急语言侧重从语言符号系统视角进行观察,在需求、规划、使用三个方面各有不同的特征维度与表现。文章进一步基于语言应急和提高应急速率、应急语言和提高应急质量目的,针对语言应急体制机制建设提出了三个方面的申论和建议,希望能从语言应急和应急语言的角度对国家治理体系的建设和治理能力的提高有所贡献。     

The Never‐ending Shift: A feminist reflection on living and organizing academic lives during the coronavirus pandemic

This article offers a feminist reflection written as a nocturnal stream of consciousness exposing the embodied, emotional and professional experience of living and working during a pandemic outbreak. Framed within a feminist approach, this personal narrative provides an example of the effects of such unexpected and unprecedented circumstances on personal and professional academic lives. Developed during the first stage of the (inter)national coronavirus pandemic, my reflections address issues of privilege; emotional labour; the virtual invasion of the home space within the current increasingly ambiguous space of ‘the workplace'; workload; and wellbeing. Further, I consider how the newly enforced flexible work measures based on online tools have turned current work–life dynamics into a ‘Never‐ending Shift'.     

可及性视角下医疗组织分布特征及其对疫情防控的影响研究

基于可及性理论,从医疗服务资源的可获得性和可达性两个角度量化各地级市疫情防控定点医疗组织机构的空间分布特征以及空间组合模式,并探讨其对疫情防控效果的影响。研究结果显示,在控制了城市基本特征、人员流动程度、基础医疗资源状况和省级固定效应之后,按人口聚集分布定点医院显著负向影响各城市累计确诊病例数,而按人口聚集分布发热门诊显著增加确诊病例数。相比于其他空间组合模式,定点医院按人口聚集分布,发热门诊按空间平均分布的组合方式对于疫情防控的效果最好。随着疫情严重程度的上升,按人口聚集分布定点医院对于疫情的抑制作用以及按人口聚集分布发热门诊对疫情防控的负面影响被进一步强化。     

Social stability challenged by Covid-19: Pandemics,inequality and policy responses

The public health measures implemented to limit the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to affect economic inequalities. In this paper we first provide a theoretical framework to analyse how income inequality contributes shaping the trade-off between economic lockdown and contagion. Our empirical analysis on EU countries shows that the lockdown is likely to significantly increase inequality and poverty and that the magnitude of the change is larger in more unequal countries. To avoid social collapse, countries must consider inequality as an additional source of fragility, while supranational, coordinated health and fiscal policies are needed in the interest of all European economies.     

新冠肺炎疫情下的餐饮业：冲击与分化

新冠肺炎疫情对我国消费行业造成极大冲击,但也为消费行业线上业务的发展创造了新机遇。以餐饮业为研究对象,采用菜么么SaaS云餐饮管理系统16 508家餐饮门店2019年12月8日至2020年7月31日的数据,使用描述性统计分阶段刻画新冠疫情对餐饮业的影响,并运用向量自回归方法实证检验新冠肺炎疫情对餐饮业的冲击及疫情期间外卖业务与餐饮整体间的相互影响关系。研究发现,此次疫情对餐饮业的影响具有阶段性和异质性特征,生存时间长的餐饮主体抗风险能力更强;疫情期间,以外卖业务为代表的线上餐饮服务对餐饮业起到了有力补充,并在后疫情时期仍表现强劲。为此,餐饮业应拓展外卖市场,餐饮企业应有效提升自身抗风险能力并实现应急管理常态化。     

中国公共卫生治理:逻辑演进与维度建构

新中国成立以来,中国公共卫生体系建设坚持社会主义原则,经历了政府计划、市场机制和社会治理模式的艰难探索过程,终于走上了公共卫生社会治理现代化的道路。新冠肺炎疫情的暴发,给中国公共卫生体系建设和现代化治理变革提供了一次前所未有的现实检验,充分彰显了“中国之治”的制度优势,但也同时暴露出市场机制在公共卫生领域的缺位错位问题。实现“政府-市场-社会”同框出镜、互补嵌入和重构个体化社会的公共卫生治理,是开创“中国之治”新境界的必由之路。