Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

Almost Periodic Solutions for Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By G-Brownian Motion

In this paper, we introduce the concept of the p-mean almost periodicity for stochastic processes in non linear expectation spaces. The existence and uniqueness of square-mean almost periodic solutions to some non linear stochastic differential equations driven by G-Brownian motion are established under some assumptions for the coefficients. The asymptotic stability of the unique square-mean almost periodic solution in the square-mean sense is also discussed.     

从语篇格律解读“信、达、雅”——兼评《出师表》的三个译本

严复提出的＂信、达、雅＂三字标准历来是翻译研究中的讨论焦点。通过阐述三者的内涵,分析它们之间的关系。从系统功能语言学语篇格律的角度重新解读＂信、达、雅＂,以《出师表》的三种英译文为例,探讨在翻译中如何做到由＂达＂至＂信＂,由＂雅＂至＂达＂,进而至＂信＂。     

墙高出睦邻——人际交往的悖论——从文体分析的视角透视《补墙》的主题

为了探讨弗罗斯特的诗歌《补墙》的主题意义,以篇章格律和词汇语法层的语言特征为依据,对该诗进行文体分析。研究发现:在共同补墙中,邻居之间在言行、观点和态度等方面的"失谐"表明"墙高出睦邻"实际上是人际交往中的一个悖论;交往中的矛盾和困惑源自信任的缺乏和交流的缺失。结果表明:聚焦于文本的篇章格律和语言特征的分析有助于揭示其主题意义。     

超高频数据的日内效应调整方法研究

日内效应在金融高频数据研究中已被广泛证实,是一种日内周期性运动的动态效应,它影响了以微观金融指标为参数的计量模型的准确估计。基于金融超高频持续期数据,本文首先论述了日内效应调整的重要性,然后引入自适应映射(SOM)的方法对日内效应进行调整。SOM是一种基于神经网络学习的特征提取方法,能够动态识别高维数据中的结构特征,克服了静态调整方法的不足。最后通过建立基于自回归条件持续期模型(ACD)的蒙特卡罗模拟实验,比较了三种日内效应调整方法的效果。模拟结果表明SOM方法在日内效应调整中更为有效和稳定,特别适合大数据条件下的周期性结构分析。     

我国鸭苗价格波动的周期性研究

在分析影响我国鸭苗价格周期性波动原因的基础上,利用X12季节调整法与H-P滤波模型法对我国鸭苗价格周期波动进行研究。结果表明:鸭苗价格波动具有周期性,周期平均长度为33个月,每个周期具有非对称性,每一周期的持续上涨时间低于持续下降时间。提出建立鸭苗生产的资格准入制度和标准许可证制度、合理控制鸭苗供给规模、保持国际和国内肉鸭市场信息畅通和加强肉鸭的疫病防治工作等相关的建议。     

对函数f（x）=cx＋d／ax＋b的n次迭代周期性的探讨

就函数的特征根方程ax2＋（b－c）x－d＝0的判别式△＝0，△＞0，△＜0讨论f[n]（x）＝x的存在性．给出存在n使f[n]（x）＝x成立时，a，b，c，d满足的条件，并给出一些特例及定理的应用．     

Estimation and forecasting hospital admissions due to Influenza: Planning for winter pressure. The case of the West Midlands, UK

Winters are a difficult period for the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the combination of cold weather and the increased likelihood of respiratory infections, especially influenza. In this article we present a proper statistical time series approach for modelling and analysing weekly hospital admissions in the West Midlands in the UK during the period week 15/1990 to week 14/1999. We consider three variables, namely, hospital admissions, general practitioner consultants, and minimum temperature. The autocorrelations of each series are shown to decay hyperbolically. The correlations of hospital admission and the lag of other series also decay hyperbolically but with different speed and directions. One of the main objectives of this paper is to show that each of the three series can be represented by a Fractional Differenced Autoregressive integrated moving average model, (FDA). Further, the hospital admission winter and summer residuals shows significant interdependency, which may be interpreted as hidden periodicities within the last 10-years time interval. The short-range (8 weeks) forecasting of hospital admission of the FDA model and a fourth-order AutoRegressive AR(4) model are quite similar. However, our results reveal that the long-range forecasting of FDA is more realistic. This implies that, using the FDA approach, the respective authority can plan for winter pressure properly.     

"三个代表"思想是对"历史周期率"的跨越

长期以来 ,人们对社会历史的变迁是否有规律 ,这种规律是否客观 ,是否可以改变、抗拒 ,一直争论不休 ,众说纷纭 ,见仁见智。中国共产党三代领导集体始终把“历史周期率”作为一个深刻的课题来思考和探索。江泽民总书记提出“三个代表”思想体现了跨越“历史周期率”的宏观方略 ,是中国共产党人对所谓“历史周期率”的郑重回答。     

原子外层空轨道相对最稳定顺序周期性规则应用

本文介绍了原子外层空轨道相对最稳定顺序周期性规则和大周期概念与元素周期系的本质联系;元素周期律(特别是第二周期性)的解释;周期系各部分的相互联系和影响;未来元素的预测等.并对元素第二周期性原因、“镧系收缩后果”等问题作出新的解释.