A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions

Aggressive behavior in pet dogs is a serious problem for dog owners across the globe, with bite injuries representing a serious risk to both people and other dogs. The effective management of aggressive behavior in dogs represents a challenging and controversial issue. Although positive reinforcement training methods are now considered to be the most effective and humane technique to manage the risk of aggression, punishment‐based methods continue to be used. Unfortunately, there has been little scientific study into the various factors influencing whether dog owners choose to use positive reinforcement techniques to manage aggression in their dogs. As such, current understanding of how best to encourage and support dog owners to use these methods remains extremely limited. This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential barriers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceived ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predicting future intentions and current reported use. Future interventions should focus on enhancing owner confidence in the effective use of positive reinforcement techniques across multiple scenarios, as well as helping owners manage their own emotional responses when they encounter challenging situations and setbacks.     

论政治冲突的功能

政治冲突的功能理论是政治冲突与整合理论的重要组成部分。由于目前对政治冲突与整合理论的研究非常少,所以作为它的重要组成部分的功能理论研究更为鲜见。本文在历史与逻辑相统一的理论框架下,结合前人的相关论述,特别是重点围绕马克思与L·科塞的观点,对政治冲突的功能:负功能和正功能进行了比较系统地分析。     

腔内电光调制激光系统的混沌模拟

采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。     

中国早期共产主义者对党建思想的探索

早期共产主义者学习和利用马列主义政党学说的基本原理来解决在中国建立政党的过程中遇到的具体问题,提出为什么要建立政党、如何建立和建设政党等党建根本问题。     

冷战后中国多边首脑外交的特点与动因

冷战后，中国以亚太地区和联合国为中心，开展了积极的多边首脑外交。其具有力度不断加大、内容逐渐多元、外在制度完备、内在缺乏约束等特点。经济全球化、集团化和全球性问题的日益突出，则是中国开展多边首脑外交的重要推动力量。     

20世纪上半叶制约中国社会发展的决定性因素

20世纪上半叶在以战争与革命为主题的时代背景下 ,外国帝国主义的侵略和俄国十月革命对中国社会发展产生了重大影响。半殖民地半封建的社会形态、错综复杂的阶级结构和阶级关系、2 0世纪中国的两大历史主题等也是制约中国社会发展的重要因素。正是由于对这四个因素的正确认识和准确把握 ,中华民族实现了 2 0世纪上半叶中国社会的巨大变革     

社会主义精神富裕论

马克思主义经典作家的相关阐述 ,社会主义本质的实现和比较优势的获取 ,精神富裕和物质富裕特殊的关系均表明 ,精神富裕是建设社会主义的应有之义。而精神富裕的导向、认识、实践和凝聚作用 ,又反过来在促进社会主义事业快速、健康与持续发展中扮演着重要角色。同时 ,社会主义精神富裕还具有向度的特性 ,是一个动态开放的发展过程     

语言问题的理论思索

从功能的角度考察语言的本质 ,是诸多著作理解语言性质的哲学基础。功能论固然看到了语言对于人类社会的决定性作用 ,然而却丝毫未触及语言自身的结构特征和机制。仅从功能的角度认识语言是不够的 ,还必须深入到语言结构内部 ,对语言的特征、机制及结构体系进行多角度观察 ,才能较为完整地揭示语言的本质