Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

重大公共卫生事件中应如何作为:来自医学人类学哈佛学派的启示

聚焦人类学者在针对重大公共卫生事件的跨学科研究中应该有何作为这一议题,通过借鉴来自医学人类学哈佛学派的民族志洞见和研究经验,为当下2019新型冠状病毒疫情危机中所进行的田野观察和分析,以期获得灵感和启示,并探索有可行性和操作性的研究策略和方法。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

Changing Frameworks in Attitudes Toward Abortion

For more than two decades, legal abortion has been the subject of heated political debate and adversarial social movement activity; however, national polls have shown little change in aggregate levels of support for abortion. This analysis examines how the determinants of abortion attitudes have changed between 1977 and 1996, using data from the General Social Surveys. While in early time periods, whites were more approving of abortion than blacks, that pattern had reversed by the late 1980s. After controlling for other factors, older people are more accepting of abortion throughout the two decades, while gender is generally unrelated to abortion views. Catholic religion weakens slightly as a predictor of abortion attitudes, while religious fundamentalism and political liberalism increase in explanatory power. The associations between attitudinal correlates and abortion approval also change over this time period. Religiosity becomes a less powerful predictor of abortion attitudes, while respondents' attitude toward sexual freedom and belief in the sanctity of human life increase in their predictive power. Support for gender inequality remains a weak but stable predictor of abortion attitudes. This pattern of results suggests that the public is influenced more by the pro-life framework of viewing abortion than by the pro-choice perspective.     

论新闻报道策划的实践意义

新闻报道策划 在近几年的新闻实践中应用非常广泛。就报道主题、整合信息、沟通受众和发挥媒体整体优 势等方面论述了新闻报道策划的实践意义。     

试论近中国茶馆的社会功能

在近代中国 ,茶馆与民众生活紧密相连 ,并承担着广泛而又复杂的社会功能。茶馆与民众的经济生活相关联 ,也是民间纠纷调解的重要场所。同时 ,作为一个公众活动的场所 ,茶馆也是民间社会信息传播的集散地 ;民众在茶馆中表达自己的见解 ,也使得茶馆成为一种控制舆论的力量。茶馆的这些功能是近代民间社会内在运作逻辑的体现。     

对车险改革后保险营销的浅析

在车辆保险条款费率改革之后的车险市场上,现实状况却与预计效果相差甚远。其主要原因是,对保险营销战略的忽视,没有以相应的保险营销战略为指导,使得营销战术在操作过程中显得盲目而跟从。针对以上问题,我们首先要做的是树立正确的保险营销观念,即重新审视营销战略在车辆保险中的作用,并在此基础上建立广义的产品观念;同时注重服务在车险营销中的作用;有效地进行市场细分和市场选择;最后对车险营销战略的具体实施即营销战术提出建议。     

高校公用房管理改革探析

高校公用房管理不仅是实物分配的管理,更是有价值资产的管理。通过理顺管理体制和完善管理机制,进行科学调配等手段,用“定额配置、有偿使用”这个经济杠杆来调节资源供求平衡,运用市场经济模式进行公用房管理,以提高公用房的优化配置和管理使用效益。     

汽车保险改革后的市场现状分析

2003年我国实行车险费率改革,给我国汽车保险市场带来了巨大的变革。业务能力拓展、车险品种增多及费率市场化都是改革的成果。但同时,某些问题依然存在。文章在分析我国车险现状的基础上,指出了问题所在,并有针对性地提出了解决之道。     

论公共管理实践中的“试点”方法

试点是我国公共管理实践中常用的一种方法,是政策制定的一个有机组成部分,为各级公共管理部门所广泛采用。当前我国公共管理部门所开展的试点越来越多,一方面说明试点是一种有效的公共管理方法,有利于提高制度设计的精度和可控性;另一方面也反映当前改革难度日趋加大,改革的不确定性逐渐增强。在实践中,试点方法又面临诸多挑战,影响了试点的内在效度和外在效度。因此,需要加强相关制度建设,以提高试点方法的内在效度与外在效度。