Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

上市公司信息披露中风险防范的博弈分析

本文分析了信息不对称下证券市场中出现的上市公司信息披露的道德风险和逆向选择风险。并通过监督博弈分析,加强对上市公司信息披露不规范的惩罚力度和建立代理人市场———声誉模型,从某种程度上防范了道德风险和逆向选择风险的发生。     

Load-Oriented Order Release (LOOR) revisited: bringing it back to the state of the art

In the workload control literature, the Load-Oriented Order Release (LOOR) approach has been neglected since its robustness was questioned at the end of the 1990s. This paper revisits LOOR and evaluates whether its performance can be improved in two ways. First, an intermediate pull release mechanism is added to avoid starvation between periodic release events. This mechanism was recently shown to be effective at improving the performance of a state-of-the-art release method known as LUMS COR. Second, an integer linear programming model is used to manage the trade-off between the timing and load balancing functions of order release. The two refinements are assessed using simulations of different shop configurations, which allow us to evaluate robustness. Results demonstrate that the refinements contribute to improving the performance of LOOR such that it can even outperform LUMS COR. Perhaps counter-intuitively, putting more emphasis on load balancing than on the urgency of individual orders is shown to lead to a lower percentage of tardy orders. Overall, the improvements mean that concerns about LOOR’s robustness are no longer valid – it now appears suitable for a wide range of shops found in practice.     

大学教学价值取向:历史与现实

从影响当前大学教学方方面面的价值取向看,大学教学要坚守古代的"理智培育"价值取向,这是大学教学永葆魅力的根源所在.同时,大学教学要张扬现代的"技术获取"价值取向,这是作为生活世界现象的大学教学的重要使命之一.第三,大学教学要倡导后现代的"欲望释放"价值取向,这是大学教学充满生机与活力的保证.因此,大学教学价值取向并非还原为欲、技、道中的某一维,而是这三者的有机统一.     

售电侧改革、市场主体变化与电价红利:基于讨价还价博弈

本文通过构建“一对多”和“多对多”讨价还价博弈模型,研究了售电侧改革前后,发电商和售电公司之间关于消费者剩余分配的博弈过程。具体来说,文章从售电侧改革带来的博弈主体与博弈机制变化角度,揭示了售电侧改革对用户电价红利的影响。研究发现:售电侧放开后,电力市场交易机制由“一对多”竞价上网变为“多对多”讨价还价匹配,造成了售电侧博弈主体的议价能力下降,发电侧博弈主体相对议价能力上升。发电商群体将索取更多的消费者剩余,从而推动发电侧整体报价的上涨,挤压了售电侧的利润空间,导致售电公司被迫抬高市场电价,最终剥夺了用户的电价红利。研究揭示了售电侧改革未能带来电价下降的根本原因。     

无单放货问题的几种解决途径及其相关的法律问题

无单放货问题被称为现代提单制度的"癌症".国际贸易界为解决无单放货问题进行了多种尝试,其中对运输单证的设计与创新主要有三种:电放、海运单以及电子提单.文章简要介绍了"电放"及"海运单"形式在实践中的应用情况及其相关的法律问题,着重分析了电子提单形式的发展和电子提单法律制度的现状,并指出顺应时代发展要求,应用电子提单,建立完善的电子提单法律制度,应是海上运输单证的发展方向.     

A content analysis of BP's press releases dealing with crisis

This study aims to analyze what kinds of frames have been used in British Petroleum's (BP's) press releases, which dealt with the Gulf oil spill crisis that occurred in April 2010. A content analysis was conducted to explore the different frames used by BP in its press releases to deal with the crisis. The main and sub themes are also analyzed through a content analysis of press releases. This study attempts to examine BP's crisis communication strategy through press release usage by closely analyzing the frames and themes that were used. This study found that BP attempted to update the public on what the company was doing to resolve the oil spill crisis, and that they made every effort to manage the crisis by using the company's official update frame. In addition, by using the social responsibility frame, BP aimed to show the public that they had intentions of taking responsibility for the oil spill. Finally, BP used a minimal number of defensive frames as a way of showing the public that they did not want to flee from the responsibility of the oil spill crisis.     

中国上市公司环境信息披露现状研究

本文通过对我国沪深两市的1000余家上市公司2002、2003年度会计报告中有关环境信息的统计调查,分析了目前我国上市公司环境信息披露的现状及存在的问题,并对提高我国上市公司的环境信息披露的质量作了简要的展望。     

重大事件政府新闻发布传播策略分析——以广州亚运会为例

政府在重大事件中的新闻发布活动是树立政府形象的良好机会。2010年广州亚运会作为亚洲体坛盛会，是一次展示国家形象和广州城市形象的绝佳时机，其新闻发布策略与传播效果尤其值得关注。文章在系统阐述重大事件新闻发布传播策略的基础上，针对广州亚运会裳间广东省及广州市政府新闻发布运行机制与传播策略进行分析，总结出包括制度规范、主题制定、模拟演练，现场应对、舆情监测等传播策略，并对其效果进行分析。     

论产品质量法上的瑕疵给付责任

我国《产品质量法》第40条的规定在性质上应为瑕疵给付责任,属于债务不履行的一种表现形态;瑕疵给付责任的效力在我国立法上表现为补正措施、合同解除(退货)和损害赔偿,与大陆法系、英美法系国家相比,缺少价金减额请求权的规定,不利于消费者利益的维护;基于交易便捷的考虑,在瑕疵给付责任的实现上应该突破合同相对性原则,其权利主体不应局限于真正购买产品的消费者,义务主体以销售者为主导,承担一种较为严格的责任,生产者则承担类似于一般保证的补充责任。