Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

英文影片的中国方言版字幕翻译

2012年3D 版《泰坦尼克号》的华丽上映曾掀起影迷们对它的新一轮热捧。文章就同样备受中国观众喜爱的中国方言版《泰坦尼克号》为案例，结合功能目的论来探寻中国方言版字幕翻译的目的与性质，进而分析、总结英文影片字幕的中国方言版译制活动过程。     

学校领导干部的自我发展素质及培养

自我发展素质是学校领导干部综合素质的重要组成部分 ,它反映了社会发展、领导职位和人的本性发展的要求。形成学校领导干部自我发展素质的主要方式是干部培训和教育实践中的探索与反思     

成人高校人才培养模式解析

成人高校目前人才培养与劳动力市场的关系模式,基本上可以归结为“对口”与“适应”两种取向。但是,无论取向何种模式,透过毕业生就业以及就业后的发展实际看,都各有利弊。因此,成人高校在人才培养的取向上,不能单纯追求或固守其中的某一种模式,而应根据社会主义市场经济发展和劳动力市场的需求,建立起多元化、多层次的人才培养模式。     

Using local linear kernel smoothers to test the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models

Herein, we propose a data-driven test that assesses the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models. The comparison of local linear kernel and parametric fits is the basis of this test, and specific boundary-corrected kernels are not needed at the boundary when local linear fitting is used. Under the parametric null model, the asymptotically optimal bandwidth can be used for bandwidth selection. This selection method leads to the data-driven test that has a limiting normal distribution under the null hypothesis and is consistent against any fixed alternative. The finite-sample property of the proposed data-driven test is illustrated, and the power of the test is compared with that of some existing tests via simulation studies. We illustrate the practicality of the proposed test by using two data sets.     

基于定货合同的供应商柔性分析和选择模型

供应链及供应链管理是目前国内外学术界和工商企业管理者共同关心的课题,他们提出了众多分析方法和分析模型,但由于计算复杂,在实际操作中运用较少。实际上,在供应链业务流程中,供应合同是最关键的法律文件,合同信息分析能很好地减少不确定性,降低风险。因此,供应商和购货商选择模型应包括以下参数:单位供应价格、定货周期、最小定货提前期、每个周期最小定货量、临时配送补偿系数、定货量小于最小定货量补偿系数。     

高职教育学制改革的问题及对策

高职教育两年制学制改革,是为了更好地突出高职教育灵活、快捷、适应性强的特点,进一步明确高职教育定位和方向的重要举措,它将涉及教育观念、培养质量、课程设置、运行管理等一系列问题。只有正确认识和处理这些问题,才能保证学制改革的顺利进行。     

论邓小平对选拔培养中青年干部的思想

建设有中国特色的社会主义市场经济 ,需要一大批杰出的人才。如何选拔培养中青年干部成为我们党和国家一项重大课题。运用邓小平理论中关于选拔培养中青年干部的观点并指导实践 ,将会对我国的四化建设起到积极作用     

清代蒙古族学堂教育及其语言教育

从 2 0世纪初开始 ,清朝教育制度发生了极大变化 ,出现了近代教育的萌芽。在这样一个大环境下 ,蒙古族近代学校教育的艰苦实践和探索也走上新的道路。蒙古族学堂教育是新教育思想的产物 ,虽然同旧的官学有一定的继承关系 ,但它打破封闭的传统教育 ,提倡开放的近代教育 ,由此教育种类和等级开始多样化、多层次化 ,出现普通教育、留学生教育和内地求学等形式。在学堂教育中 ,各种语言教育模式是同时并存的 ,这些模式经过分化和重组后 ,出现向汉语和蒙古语两个单语教育模式或蒙古语汉语双语教育模式集中的倾向。     

广西贫困地区村级寄宿制完全小学基本建设研究

台湾影光基金会在广西贫困地区捐助的 14所村级寄宿制完全小学的基本建设体现了“学校即社会 ,生活即教育 ,村民是学校的主人”的办学宗旨 ,与国家的《农村中小学基本建设试行标准》进行比较 ,作为“社区文化中心”的寄宿制学校的基本硬件应包括教室、师生宿舍、多功能厅和厕所浴室等基建参数的指标 ,在基本建设中应遵循校舍建设优先、满足社会需求、村校合作、村民共管等 8项原则