A comparison of maximum likelihood and least squares for the estimation of a cumulative distribution

Monte Carlo methods are used to compare the methods of maximum likelihood and least squares to estimate a cumulative distribution function. When the probabilistic model used is correct or nearly correct, the two methods produce similar results with the MLE usually slightly superior When an incorrect model is used, or when the data is contaminated, the least squares technique often gives substantially superior results.     

Student and faculty perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccinations on a health sciences campus

Objective: To examine the perceptions among faculty and health professional students regarding mandatory vaccination policies on a health sciences campus. Participants: A total of 296 faculty and 244 students completed surveys during Fall 2015. Methods: The online survey administered to individuals who received the influenza vaccine during the fall 2015 influenza vaccination clinic season included five items evaluating perceptions of employer mandatory vaccination requirements. Results: Chi-square analysis indicated that although faculty and students agree mandatory vaccinations in a health care environment are appropriate, faculty are more likely than students to get vaccinated in the absence of a mandate. Additionally, a small fraction of faculty would consider employment elsewhere when facing this mandate. Conclusions: Overall, faculty and students had favorable perceptions about mandatory influenza vaccine policies. Since students were less likely to be vaccinated in the absence of a mandate, education of students should be improved to support the importance of vaccinations in a health care environment.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

Estimation for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations via the empirical characteristic function method

Seasonal fractional ARIMA (ARFISMA) model with infinite variance innovations is used in the analysis of seasonal long-memory time series with large fluctuations (heavy-tailed distributions). Two methods, which are the empirical characteristic function (ECF) procedure developed by Knight and Yu [The empirical characteristic function in time series estimation. Econometric Theory. 2002;18:691–721] and the Two-Step method (TSM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of stable ARFISMA model. The ECF method estimates simultaneously all the parameters, while the TSM considers in the first step the Markov Chains Monte Carlo–Whittle approach introduced by Ndongo et al. [Estimation of long-memory parameters for seasonal fractional ARIMA with stable innovations. Stat Methodol. 2010;7:141–151], combined with the maximum likelihood estimation method developed by Alvarez and Olivares [Méthodes d'estimation pour des lois stables avec des applications en finance. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique. 2005;1(4):23–54] in the second step. Monte Carlo simulations are also used to evaluate the finite sample performance of these estimation techniques.     

基于疫情上报意愿的禽流感补偿标准研究

鼓励养殖户及时上报疫情是控制禽流感扩散蔓延、维护社会公众生命安全的重要举措。那么,如果要使养殖户自愿上报疫情,合理的补偿标准应该是多少？利用宁夏中卫沙坡区实地调查数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型分析养殖户上报疫情意愿及其意愿受偿强度的影响因素,进而测算养殖户在愿意上报疫情情景下可接受的补偿标准。散养户和规模养殖户可接受的补偿标准分别平均为22.41元/只、31.87元/只,对5个月龄蛋鸡的意愿受偿标准最高,分别达到35.21元/只、53.55元/只。提出建立疫情损失的联动补偿机制,提高疫情补偿标准,对散养户和规模养殖户实行差异化疫情补偿政策。     

韩国全罗南道岁时风俗研究

Seasonal customs, also called“performances that take place within a one year cycle”, refer to a series of customs, patterns or norms practiced periodically and habitually on spe-cific days within the regular cycle of the four sea-sons. Seasonal customs are found in every month, such as the Spring Festival in the first month, Laborers’ Day in the second month, The 3rd day in the third month, the birthday of Sakyamuni in the fourth month, the Dano Festival in the fifth month, etc. ( all dates mentioned in this paper are in the lunar calendar) . As the years go by, the seasonal customs change constantly. Many of them have been faded as society has changed, and they have been replaced by National Holidays or other legal holidays which regulate people’s lives. In addition, as western and other cultures filter in, holidays like Valentine’s Day, and Christmas have stepped into people’s lives. Because these festivals are no longer linked with traditional religious meanings found in the old customs, and place more emphasis on entertainment, they have been accepted almost instantly, taking up social space, and changing people’s activities and behaviors. Apart from these, festivals in some particular areas became popular and spread nationwide as the result of na-tional policies. As an important constituent, seasonal customs can reveal the cultural state and spiritual world of a country or region. Jeollanam-do in South Korea, known as the treasure house of customs, possesses rich customs and heritage and various annual cus-toms can be seen here. This paper, by making a general investigation of the customs in Jeollanam-do, can help us further understand the state of this region’s history and ideology, and the cultural im-plications hidden within it. In the first month of the lunar calendar, the primary festivals are the Spring Festival, the First Day of the First Lunar Month, and the Fifteenth Day of the First Lunar Month. 1 ) In the Spring Festival, the most important activities are offering sacrifices to gods and ancestors, sweeping tombs, and paying New Year’s visits. People also believe that this is the proper time to avoid the“three dis-asters”, keep away night ghosts, burn hair, and go to fortune tellers, etc. There are also games played in this period, such as the see-saw and board-turning. 2) the First Day of the First Lunar Month cannot be counted as a traditional festival. However, a day’s rest is taken in the countryside when every house sticks spring couplets on their doors or pillars. These are pairs of long strips of paper on which auspicious words or sayings are written. 3 ) In traditional society, when farming dominated, people observed the Fifteenth Day of the First Lunar Month with grand ceremony, main-ly through engaging in entertaining activities. In Jeollanam-do, the festival atmosphere is warmly created by playing folk or peasant music, flying kites, playing tug-of-war games, or Gohssaum, and so on. In addition to the group activities, indi-vidual families might offer sacrifices in their hou-ses. Each village also offers sacrifices together, known as the Tangshan Sacrifice and Dragon King Sacrifice. There are various superstitions related to this day. For example, many people will buy a strainer and hang it at home, believing that it will bring blessings. Or, on the eve of this day people might set fires on field ridges, believing that this will bring a good harvest. People might also set up Changsheng or Changganzi, along the borders or milestones separating villages from each other, which are known as the patron gods protecting their territory. On this day the staple food is supposed to be“Wugufan”, literally“Rice with Five Grains”, which actually includes more than five kinds of va-rious grains. It is so-called because all the main grains are collectively called “five grains”. In ad-dition, people also cook the“Eight Treasures Rice Soup” which contains glutinous rice, Chinese dates, chestnut, honey, pine nuts, an beans, etc. In the second lunar month, there are the Laborers’ Day and the Yongdung Festival. On the 1st of the second month, Laborers’ Day, laborers used to be given a day’s rest when people made a kind of dessert known as “Agecake”. However, because no one hires laborers nowadays, this cus-tom has actually disappeared. It is said that on 1st day of the second month, Yongdung Halmoni de-scends from the sky, and returns there on the 15th or 20th day. Yongdung Halmoni is said to be the goddess in charge of wind, so, in fishing areas where wind matters a lot, people will offer sacri-fices to her. It is said that if Yongdung Halmoni descends with her daughter-in-law, the wind throughout the whole year will be too strong to guarantee a good harvest, but good sailings can be counted on if she descends with her daughter. On the 3rd day of the third month, women in Jeollanam-do bring simple cooking equipment to the riverside, and pass a pleasant day there. They mix glutinous rice powder with rhododendron petals to make pancakes which they call “flower pan-cakes”. While they eat, they sing songs about flower pancakes or other folk songs. Around 3 rd day of the third month, butterflies start to appear and “dance”. It is believed that if yellow butter-flies are seen first, the coming year will be smooth, but if white butterflies are seen first, there will be many funerals or other inauspicious things. On the 8 th day of the fourth month the birthday of Sakyamuni, many people go to the temples and hang Buddhist lanterns. The display of lanterns on that day is truly grand. It is attended mainly by women who pray for happiness, safety, good health, success and prosperity for their family members. In the temples, people perform the ritu-al of“circumambulating the stupas”, spending the entire night sleepless walking around the stupas, praising gods’ merits and credits, and repeating their wishes in their hearts. While circling the stu-pas, people usually listen to Buddhist chants,some places may play the traditional music with tradi-fional instrument. On the 5th day of the fifth month, on the Dano Festival, the following activities are found in Jeol-lanam-do. 1 ) wrestling, a competitive game played mainly by males; 2 ) swinging, played mainly by females; 3 ) washing hair with acorus calamus. It is believed that hair becomes smooth and shiny if washed with water boiled with acorus calamus. Therefore, many women wash their hair in this way on the 5th day of the fifth month. 4) imbibing herbal medicine. During the Dano Festi-val, all things on the earth are said to be suitable for medicine. There are drinkable herbal juices made from Leonurus heterophyllus, or Ay Tsao. People pluck all kinds of herbs and dry them for future use. The 15 th day of the sixth lunar month is Yudu Day. It is believed that if you wash your hair with clear stream water on this day, bad luck is kept a-way and you will not suffer heatstroke in summer. According to local folklore, the Dragon God and God of the field ditches check on the crops on this day, so no fieldwork is allowed, and a day’s rest is required. If people insist on going to work, it is said they will not have a good harvest. Rice cakes are also prepared on this day and placed in the crop fields as simple offerings to the Dragon God for a good harvest. In June, which has the hottest days in the year, the month is divided into the ini-tial, middle and final hottest days. In order to build up their health, people cook delicious gin-seng chicken soup by putting ginseng, jujubes and glutinous rice into the chicken’s abdomen. Or, for the sake of vitality, some men may drink a body-protecting soup, the so-called dog meat soup. The 7 th day of the seventh month is the Chilseok Festival. Since Chilseok is closely con-nected with the Chilseok God, every family will pray to the Chilseok God for blessings, or go to temples to offer sacrifices. In this festival some families may offer sacrifices to Chengzhu God as in other festivals, but not many offerings are required except for some rice and vegetable dishes. On the 15th day, the Baekjung Day, all kinds of fortune-telling activities prevail. All fieldwork stops and a day’s rest is taken. On this day people also prepare food to offer to the ancestors. The 15th day of the eight month, the Mid-Au-tumn Festival, is characterized by harvest and thanks-giving. Various activities can be seen in Je-ollanam-do, among which offering sacrifices and sweeping tombs are given priority, even more than during the Spring Festival. During the mid-autumn days everyone, rich or poor, makes Songbing, which is very much like a Chinese moon cake, and it is still the most representative festival food for the Mid-Autumn Festival Day. After finishing mak-ing the Songbing with newly harvested rice, people will carry them together with many fruits to offer sacrifices in the early morning and sweep tombs. Some people may go to the cemetery to pull weeds before sweeping tombs. At night, during the full moon, in order to liven up atmosphere, women will perform traditional dance . There is also a custom observed on the Mid-autumn day—married daugh-ters will meet with their own parents and relatives in a place located mid-way between the two homes. Sometimes, female neighbors may agree to meet with each other at a certain appointed place and bring food along to spend a pleasant day to-gether. The 9 th day of the ninth month is the Jungu Festival. It is no longer regarded as a particular festival, but it is still considered a lucky day. In the past, on this day, people would make wine, rice cakes and even medicine, out of chrysanthe-mums. Moreover, literati would appreciate poems as well as maple leaves, which were quite scenic. There are no special festivals during the 10 th lunar month, though this is considered a lucky month because many things forbidden in other months are permissible during this month. The 15th day is a day for some families to offer sacrifices to ancestors or drive away disasters. In rural areas, one of the family customs is for women to bathe and change their clothes before replacing the old rice in ancestor pot with newly harvested rice. This is re-garded as a recommended ritual to domestic gods of new rice. In the 11th lunar month, at the winter sol-stice, it is customary to have red bean soup, which is cooked with glutinous rice powder and red beans mixed together. Its red color is believed to protect people against evil spirits. People offer the red bean soup to their ancestors, and, splash it in front of doors, on walls, around the kitchen, and in their yards. This is all done in order to keep ghosts outside. The 30th day of the 12th month, New Year’s Eve, is the time to stay up late to see in the New Year. So, every house has lights on overnight. It is customary to visit elderly people and inquire a-bout their physical condition and to show care on this eve. This is called “paying an old year’s call”. In olden times, snow which fell in the 12 th month was put into bottles, and when the snow melted the water was believed to be a good medi-cine for curing heatstroke in summer. To sum up, seasonal customs in Jeollanam-do are multi-functional, including the following five aspects:1 ) worshipping the ancestors;2 ) praying for a good harvest and good fishing;3 ) keeping a-way bad luck and calling for blessings;4 ) sharing happiness and improving harmony;5 ) hygiene and health care. Folk customs in Jeollanam-do are diversified. While taken as the concrete outward representa-tions of seasonal customs, these folk scenarios car-ry distinctive features of local customs: 1 ) rural music is the most important factor constituting these seasonal customs by enriching the functions and connotations; 2 ) With its keen local charac-teristics, distinctive quality of including spells, and carrying a religious sensibility, games are part and parcel to seasonal customs; 3 ) Different cul-tural circles are accompanied by different customs and habits. So there are differences between inland and coastal or island areas, and even within the coastal area, differences can occur among particu-lar sea areas.     

Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space

The problem of whether seasonal decomposition should be used prior to or after aggregation of time series is quite old. We tackle the problem by using a state-space representation and the variance/covariance structure of a simplified one-component model. The variances of the estimated components in a two-series system are compared for direct and indirect approaches and also to a multivariate method. The covariance structure between the two time series is important for the relative efficiency. Indirect estimation is always best when the series are independent, but when the series or the measurement errors are negatively correlated, direct estimation may be much better in the above sense. Some covariance structures indicate that direct estimation should be used while others indicate that an indirect approach is more efficient. Signal-to-noise ratios and relative variances are used for inference.     

an trough weakens, the summer rain

in less precipitation in the Huaihe River valley. On the contrary, during negative index times, a weak summ