现代俄语口语中省略词的使用

口语是语言变化、发展的重要环节。口语中的诸多表现手段缺少不了省略词的使用，而省略词的使用恰恰迎合了现代各种语言发展、变化的一个共同趋势，即简化趋势。本文从四个方面对现代俄语口语中省略词的使用情况进行了详细阐述，揭示了其在使用过程中所产生的语义、语法、词汇、修辞等方面的特点。     

《庄子·外物》"两陷"解读

《庄子·外物》中的重要概念"两陷",并非指"陷入利害两端",而是指陷入是非善恶两端的价值偏执,从而造成选择上的困境.庄子试图消解善恶是非观念的偏执,"不谴是非",摆脱人们所面临的道德困境.这虽然满足了一批隐逸之士的精神需要,但就社会整体而言,和谐的社会秩序必须以良好的道德关系为基础,只有重树道德主体的自觉意识和价值信念,才能真正解决"两陷"问题.     

Using Bayesian graphical models to model biases in observational studies and to combine multiple sources of data: application to low birth weight and water disinfection by-products

Summary.  Data in the social, behavioural and health sciences frequently come from observational studies instead of controlled experiments. In addition to random errors, observational data typically contain additional sources of uncertainty such as missing values, unmeasured confounders and selection biases. Also, the research question is often different from that which a particular source of data was designed to answer, and so not all relevant variables are measured. As a result, multiple sources of data are often necessary to identify the biases and to inform about different aspects of the research question. Bayesian graphical models provide a coherent way to connect a series of local submodels, based on different data sets, into a global unified analysis. We present a unified modelling framework that will account for multiple biases simultaneously and give more accurate parameter estimates than standard approaches. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from a study of water disinfection by-products and adverse birth outcomes in the UK.     

Racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases in child maltreatment severity assessment in Spanish child protection services caseworkers

Evidence from several countries has shown the over‐representation of racial/ethnic minority groups in child protection services (CPS). The objective of the present study was to explore whether racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases influence Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of the severity of child maltreatment. Moreover, the study attempted to explore the influence on these judgements of the use of structured instruments and professional experience. Two case vignettes of child maltreatment were presented to 405 CPS caseworkers and 169 students of social work and psychology. Family ethnic origin and income were manipulated in the vignettes. The findings showed no statistical evidence of biases related to family ethnic origin or socio‐economic status (SES) in Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of maltreatment severity. Biases related to family SES were found for students for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers and students who did not use a structured instrument to assess maltreatment severity tended to underestimate the severity for the vignettes of parental incapacity to control child/adolescent behaviour and to overestimate it for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers who used a structured instrument showed higher percentages of accuracy and inter‐rater agreement, supporting the relevance of structured tools in reducing potential caseworkers' biases.     

Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

Use of prior information for estimating the variance components

The MINQUE and its modifications are considered for estimating the variances of the balanced one-way random effects model. The effects of the a priori values on the estimators of the variances are examined in detail. The Mean Square Errors of the estimators are compared for variations in the prior values of the unknown variances.     

社会心理测量中降低主观性偏差的方法探索——一项关于组织认同的测量思路与量表设计及其结果

对作为一种社会心理现象的组织认同的测量思路，从大的视野看，应该既从组织成员对组织与自己关系的内在体验和感受，也从其对这种关系表现出的外显性行为两个方面实施；从具体操作言，还应寻求组织认同中个体的主我认知与他我认知的统一，把二者的测量得分合二为一后，求对同一个问题的整合结果。测量量表的设计与编制应该同时考虑两个方面：一是在设计心理倾向测量的同时必须考虑测量内在心理和外显性行为表现两个层次；二是在测量这种主观意向倾向时应注意从主我与他我的两个方面。实际的测量结果有降低测量的主观性偏差和提高测量的精确度两个特点。     

An Attentional Application of Socioemotional Selectivity Theory in College Students

Socioemotional selectivity theory posits that emotions become increasingly salient as individuals approach endings. Recent findings have linked the theory with biases in information processing in the context of aging. However, these studies all confounded advancing age and the motivational impact of endings. This study represented an attempt to disentangle the effects of large age differences from those of endings on the processing of emotional information by investigating differences in attention to emotional stimuli between college seniors and college first‐years. Seniors represented a group approaching the social ending of graduation from college and first‐years served as a comparison group not facing an ending. Following recent findings in the literature on aging, it was hypothesized that seniors would selectively avoid negative images in an effort to better regulate their emotions in the face of this social ending. First‐years were found to spend a significantly larger portion of their time viewing sad faces than did seniors. Seniors also exhibited significantly higher levels of positive affect than did first‐years. These findings are discussed within the context of emotion regulation in the face of impending endings across the lifespan.     

Changes in Support From Confidants,Children, and Friends Following Widowhood

This paper examines the extent to which widowhood affects changes in (a) the availability of a confidant, (b) emotional support from children, and (c) emotional support from friends/relatives both 6 and 18 months after spousal loss. Analyses are based on data from the Changing Lives of Older Couples, a prospective study of 1,532 married individuals aged 65 and older. Compared to married persons, widowed persons are less likely to have a confidant, yet they receive greater support from children, friends, and relatives, controlling for support prior to widowhood. The findings suggest that, although close social relationships may remain stable in the course of normal aging, stressful events such as widowhood may bring forth both losses and gains in social support.