A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

二元方程式F(x,y)=0确定的函数曲线渐近线的探讨

给出二元方程式F(x,y)=0确定的函数曲线渐近线的几个结果。     

论企业意会知识的管理

通过对持续竞争优势的深入研究 ,认识到意会知识对企业越来越重要。文章简要地阐明了意会知识对企业持续竞争优势的重要意义 ,分析了企业意会知识的分类框架和表现形式 ,并探讨企业如何加强知识管理使意会知识成为持续竞争优势的基础。     

公民教育：现代思想政治教育的新思路

在现代化进程中,随着公民教育的产生与思想政治教育的转型,加强公民教育成为社会主义民主政治建设的一项基础工程,是现代政治民主化和现代思想政治教育发展的内在必然,也是科学发展观的根本要求。公民教育契合了现代思想政治教育的核心价值,是现代思想政治教育理念创新、内容拓展、功能优化的新思路。     

Association between sexually explicit messages and sleep health among French sexual minority men

It has been demonstrated that sexual minority men (SMM) participate in sexting. While research has shown that engagement in the exchange of sexually explicit media is associated with poor health outcomes, no previous research has investigated its association with sleep health outcomes. This study sought to examine the association between sexually explicit media and sleep health among SMM, a population that suffers from poor sleep health. A popular geosocial networking application was used to recruit SMM individuals (N?=?580) in the Paris, France, metropolitan area. Multivariate analyses, adjusting for sociodemographics, were used to test the association between the frequency of sexually explicit messaging and three dimensions of sleep health: (1) sleep quality, (2) sleep duration, and (3) two aspects of sleep problems. In multivariate analyses, those who reported engaging in sexually explicit messaging more were more likely to report getting less than seven?hours of sleep (aRR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) compared with those who reported engaging in sexually explicit messaging less. No significant associations were found between sexting and sleep quality or reporting sleep problems. Sexually explicit messaging was associated with shorter sleep duration. Intervention targeted at individuals who sext could potentially improve sleep health outcomes.     

听力显性教学"聚焦输入、强化互动"的有效性研究

以在读非英语专业本科生和硕士生为研究对象,进行大学英语听力显性教学“聚焦输入、强化互动”的有效性研究。实验数据和问卷调查结果表明:“聚焦输入、强化互动”的显性教学效果明显,多维隐性效应得到学习者充分肯定。该研究对听力教学的启示是:进行听力显性教学策略研究,听力显性教学与学习者隐性学习结合都很有必要。     

LC滤波器设计的优化解析公式

给出了改进的Chebyshev和Butterworth低通原型LC滤波器的解析设计公式.此公式充分利用阶数取整带来的余量,在不改变滤波器阶数的前提下减小了通带波动,极大地方便了集成滤波器的实现.给出了集成有源高通滤波器设计实例,验证了改进的Chebyshev和Butterworth低通原型LC滤波器解析设计公式的有效性.     

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large‐scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district‐based SLFs, and circle‐shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions.     

语篇连贯:显性连贯与隐性连贯

英、汉语篇都具有两种连贯方式,即显性连贯与隐性连贯。显性连贯的语篇使用各种明显的衔接手段,如照应、省略、替代、连接等语法手段和重复、同义词、反义词、下义词、局部关系词和搭配等词汇手段把语篇中不同的成分从意义上联系起来。而隐性连贯有赖于语境和语用知识的推导。“合作原则”和“关联原则”对没有形式上的衔接的语篇连贯颇有解释力,读者掌握的文化知识,包括话语发生时的特定情景对语篇的连贯解读也很重要。     

A study of DEA models without explicit inputs

In performance evaluations, data without explicit inputs (such as index data, pure output data) are widely used. To directly use such data, this paper presents a study on building DEA models without explicit inputs, so-called DEA-WEI models, which are applicable to the evaluation applications where inputs are not directly considered. We provide an axiom foundation of these kinds of models, and further discuss how to incorporate value judgments of decision makers into these DEA-WEI models. Several such models are derived. Finally, applications of the DEA-WEI models are presented.