“一带一路”沿线国家设施联通对贸易利益的影响

以全球价值链（GVC）参与为视角，基于2005—2015年40个“一带一路”沿线国家与我国的增加值贸易数据，采用静态面板固定效应模型实证分析交通基础设施和通信基础设施对“一带一路”沿线国家贸易利益的影响。结果发现，加强交通和通信基础设施建设有利于提高一国出口中所包含的国内增加值，增进该国的贸易利益。作用机制研究表明，交通基础设施和通信基础设施都能够通过降低贸易成本促进贸易利益的提升，其中通信基础设施还能够通过提高贸易的时间效率对贸易利益产生积极影响。因此，“一带一路”沿线国家应以设施联通为依托，加强本国的交通和通信基础设施建设，把握参与国际生产分工的主动权，以实现共同发展繁荣。     

Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Response strategy to environment context factors using a lean and agile approach: Implications for firm performance

Based on the environment-strategy performance perspective and dynamic capabilities framework, we develop a theoretical model and hypotheses specifying how supply chain collaboration as a response to environment context factors – competitive intensity, supply uncertainty, technological turbulence and market turbulence, using a lean and agile strategy may influence firm performance. We test the model using partial least square structural equation modelling on data collected from a field survey with responses from 152 manufacturing firms representing a variety of industries. Empirical findings generally support the relationship between collaboration and firm performance using a lean and agile strategy. Also, for firms in industries that face environments characterised by high supply uncertainty and competitive intensity with, technological turbulence, the study finds evidence of a direct relationship between these environmental factors and supply chain collaboration. The findings provide an initial strategic response framework for appropriately aligning a lean and agile supply chain strategy through collaboration with environment context factors to achieve firm performance improvements.     

不同冷链服务模式下生鲜农产品供应链决策

基于单物流服务商、单供应商和单零售商构成的生鲜农产品供应链，构建3种冷链服务模式：承诺模式、提前要求模式与延后要求模式，探讨不同冷链服务模式对定价与冷链服务水平、企业绩效的影响。研究发现：某种冷链服务模式是否有利于消减数量与质量损耗依赖于产品易腐性、冷链服务成本及其分担比例。供应链成员无法在承诺模式与提前要求模式下形成统一的模式偏好。当物流服务商承担的冷链服务成本比例较低时，相比于提前要求模式，供应商偏好承诺模式，否则，偏好提前要求模式。承诺模式比提前要求模式更有利于物流服务商，然而对于零售商，结果正好相反。数值实验表明，虽然供应链成员无法对冷链服务模式形成整体的一致性偏好，但仍可实现局部的一致性偏好。     

Analyzing multiple vector autoregressions through matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices

Abstract

This article proposes a new approach to analyze multiple vector autoregressive (VAR) models that render us a newly constructed matrix autoregressive (MtAR) model based on a matrix-variate normal distribution with two covariance matrices. The MtAR is a generalization of VAR models where the two covariance matrices allow the extension of MtAR to a structural MtAR analysis. The proposed MtAR can also incorporate different lag orders across VAR systems that provide more flexibility to the model. The estimation results from a simulation study and an empirical study on macroeconomic application show favorable performance of our proposed models and method.     

试析我国房地产投资运作模式及其发展

随着我国房地产市场由卖方市场逐渐过渡到买方市场,房地产投资运作模式由作坊生产式投资模式逐渐向社会化大生产式投资模式椎进。     

重庆市都市区人中就业现状及变化趋势

都市区作为重庆经济的核心区域,随着经济的快速发展以及城市化进程的加快,正对人口产生巨大的聚集效应,而人口就业将成为一个十分突出的问题。因此,准确把握劳动力供求变动趋势十分重要。为此通过模型运算,对2000-2020年的都市区劳动年龄人口和劳动力的供求变动趋势进行了预测分析。     

基于定货合同的供应商柔性分析和选择模型

供应链及供应链管理是目前国内外学术界和工商企业管理者共同关心的课题,他们提出了众多分析方法和分析模型,但由于计算复杂,在实际操作中运用较少。实际上,在供应链业务流程中,供应合同是最关键的法律文件,合同信息分析能很好地减少不确定性,降低风险。因此,供应商和购货商选择模型应包括以下参数:单位供应价格、定货周期、最小定货提前期、每个周期最小定货量、临时配送补偿系数、定货量小于最小定货量补偿系数。     

供应链与海尔的战略调整

供应链是现代工商业的一种新的业态形式 ,它通过有效的客户和市场管理、对客户需求的准确预测和迅速反应以及最大程度地降低从原材料到生产、再到销售整个过程的库存和运转费用 ,为终端顾客提供最大的让渡价值 ,提高供应链成员整体的竞争力。海尔集团以超前性的战略眼光对公司的组织管理结构和经营方式进行了战略性的调整 ,为推行供应链管理和经营创造了条件。