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1.
Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung
Mathias Zocher 《Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv》2005,89(4):383-402
Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen
benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses
angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System
in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden
kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen
die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.
Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.
* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken. 相似文献
2.
Russia’s role in ‘animation’ of the Kyoto Protocol was crucial. Its initial vacillation on ratification was predominantly
due to political bargaining with the EU. Domestic economic rationales [i.e. impacts of emission trading and Joint Implementation
(JI) projects] were important to a much lesser extent and environmental motives did not seem to play any role in the decision.
Since the Protocol entered into force, there have been significant delays in complete establishment of policy implementation
frameworks, which are necessary for Russia to start benefiting from JI and emission trading. Only recently, in 2007, have
GHG inventories and a national registry been established and the responsibilities for implementation of the Protocol and JI
among the government departments have been distributed only to a certain extent. Some constraints hindering JI projects, such
as vague legislation, an unfavourable economic climate, lack of commitment to JI projects, corruption, xenophobia, state and
agency ‘capture’ still remain.
相似文献
3.
于丹 《北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版)》2014,27(4):25-31
1999年《蒙特利尔公约》为国际航空运输中承运人责任的确定提供了统一的实体法规则。公约确定了5种管辖权,如何在其中做出选择不仅关系着诉讼能否顺利展开,也可能对最终的诉讼结果具有重要的影响。结合韩亚航空事故的具体情况,对旅客一方可援引的5种《蒙特利尔公约》管辖权进行逐一分析,指出死伤的中国旅客将很难依据公约在美国提起诉讼。 相似文献
4.
5.
Marie Drolet Maryse Paquin Magnolia Soutyrine 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》2007,24(5):437-453
This research study explores the strategies adopted by 60 parents of children between 3 and 9 years of age considered to have
engaged in violent behaviour, within the meaning of the Safe Schools Act (Ontario Ministry of Education, Canada, 2000). This legal framework requires parents to be involved in the decisions concerning
their children. Parents’ perceptions of their involvement lead them to develop coping strategies enabling them to play a more
active role in such decision making. This article analyzes their perceptions according to a strengths-based approach and seeks
to provide a mediation perspective to social work practice with families.
相似文献
Marie DroletEmail: |
6.
Myria Watkins Allen Renee Edwards Celia Ray Hayhoe Lauren Leach 《Journal of Family and Economic Issues》2007,28(1):3-22
This study explores the imagined interactions college students have with their parents about money and credit, their attitudes
toward credit and money, the ways they say their parents deal with financial decisions, and the communication coalitions regarding
finances they perceive existing within their family. Students’ imagined interaction pleasantness is greatest when parents
jointly form a plan for paying off credit card debt and lowest when parents argue. When family coalitions exist, students
report more frequent imagined interactions. Imagined interaction frequency and pleasantness are related to credit and money
attitudes.
相似文献
Lauren LeachEmail: |
7.
Gary Chaison 《Journal of Labor Research》2007,28(4):642-657
I ask whether the highly confrontational collective bargaining in the airlines is unique to that industry or a sign of a deepening
crisis in union–management relations nationally. First, airline labor relations are reviewed in the context of extremely contentious
negotiations, intense industry competition, complex and fragmented bargaining structures, frequent bankruptcies, and unpredictable
external shocks. Next, concessionary bargaining in the airlines is discussed, and a new and extreme form of concessionary
bargaining is identified. The emergence of the new concessionary bargaining in the airlines and its spread to the automobile
sector is then interpreted as the early signs of a fundamental transformation of collective bargaining. The implications of
the new concessionary bargaining are then described at the workplace, company, union, and societal levels.
相似文献
Gary ChaisonEmail: |
8.
This paper investigates changing attitudes towards the euro over time in Germany using longitudinal micro-data from the German
Socio Economic Panel Study. We observe that a large part of the German population was worried about the new currency both
before and after its introduction. Social psychological theories provide insight into these attitudes. Concerns regarding
the euro are apparently connected with problems in handling the new currency and with the press coverage of price rises. For
these reasons, future EMU member states should prepare their populations better for these challenges. 相似文献
9.
This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.
相似文献
Yuji TamuraEmail: Fax: +44-24-76523032 |
10.
There are now three essentially separate literatures on the topics of multiple systems estimation, record linkage, and missing
data. But in practice the three are intimately intertwined. For example, record linkage involving multiple data sources for
human populations is often carried out with the expressed goal of developing a merged database for multiple system estimation
(MSE). Similarly, one way to view both the record linkage and MSE problems is as ones involving the estimation of missing
data. This presentation highlights the technical nature of these interrelationships and provides a preliminary effort at their
integration. 相似文献