A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

中国软件企业进入国际市场之研究

进入 90年代以来 ,以美国企业为代表的软件制造行业获得了突飞猛进的发展 ,国际软件市场空前巨大 ,充满了机会和挑战。对于在软件行业中寻求生存与发展的企业来说 ,走向国际市场是一个必然的趋势。中国的软件企业要走向成功 ,必须具备两个要素 :一是拥有能够在国际市场拿到订单的市场营销队伍 ;二是拥有能够与国际客户进行沟通的项目经理队伍 ,并在公司的发展中 ,寻求未来在海外上市的机会     

论职工持股制度的深化与发展

农村包产到户,城市职工持股”是中国经济体制改革的两种基本模式。在企业产权制度改革中,应大力发展职工持股制度,明确发展思路与重点,规范职工持股制度的运作与管理。     

上海市房屋拆迁立法轨迹及特点

上海市房屋拆迁立法是随国家政治、经济体制的改革而发展变化的 ,对上海房屋拆迁立法的历史回顾及其特点分析 ,可从中思考修改房屋拆迁立法发展的方向 ,并提出有关立法建议。     

Role of informal sector recycling in waste management in developing countries

Many thousands of people in developing country cities depend on recycling materials from waste for their livelihoods. With the focus of the Millennium Development Goals on poverty reduction, and of waste strategies on improving recycling rates, one of the major challenges in solid waste management in developing countries is how best to work with this informal sector to improve their livelihoods, working conditions and efficiency in recycling.The general characteristics of informal recycling are reviewed, highlighting both positive and negative aspects. Despite the health and social problems associated with informal recycling, it provides significant economic benefits that need to be retained. Experience shows that it can be highly counterproductive to establish new formal waste recycling systems without taking into account informal systems that already exist. The preferred option is to integrate the informal sector into waste management planning, building on their practices and experience, while working to improve efficiency and the living and working conditions of those involved. Issues associated with integrating informal recycling into the formal waste management sector are discussed.     

Social capital of entrepreneurs in a developing country: The effect of gender on access to and requests for resources

This paper addresses gender differences in the social capital of entrepreneurs in a developing country. Social networks are often an important asset for accessing resources; however, they may also be a liability in developing countries, since entrepreneurs are often expected to support their contacts. Using a recent survey among urban and rural Ugandan entrepreneurs, we focus on the financial resources that entrepreneurs can obtain from their contacts on the one hand, and requests for financial support made to the entrepreneurs from these contacts on the other hand. Our results show that there are gender differences associated with access to, and requests for, financial resources.     

西部六城市流动人口调查综合报告

自中央实施"西部大开发"发展战略以来,在西部省区基础设施和许多行业的大量投资吸引了大量来自东部和邻近农村的流动人员。我国西部是少数族群聚居区,在发展过程中各民族之间存在相互协作的广阔空间,也存在发展机会和利益分配方面的相互竞争关系。为了调查和分析近年来西部的人口流动及其对当地族群关系的影响,我们在西部六个重要城市开展了流动人口的问卷调查。本文以这次问卷调查的数据为基础,系统地分析了西部大城市中流动人口的基本特征、就业状况、收入与消费情况以及他们与当地居民之间的交往。这些量化分析的研究成果,将便于我们进一步深入分析"西部大开发"过程中人口流动对当地经济建设、社会生活和族际交往所带来的影响。     

发挥开发区自主科技创新功能的研究

20多年来,江苏省开发区成长、发展迅速,特别是经过“十五”期间进一步发展,开发区的功能日益完善,作用显著增强。现有的87个国家和省级开发区集聚了全省大部分科技创新要素资源,具备较强的创新能力,引导开发区积极发挥自主科技创新功能有助于辐射、带动江苏省整体创新水平的提高,从而提升江苏省在全国的经济和社会地位。     

Secondary school dropout and work outcomes in ten developing countries

This paper analyzes the impact of secondary school dropout on the work outcomes of young people in ten developing countries. Understanding such a phenomenon is important because it may affect work prospects, exacerbate income inequality and determine macroeconomic lasting effects given that the formation of a skilled workforce is a key element of economic development and growth.When accounting for endogeneity, we find that secondary school dropout decreases the probability of being employed in non-elementary occupations, suggesting that unskilled workers fail to meet the increasing demand for a skilled workforce. Secondary school dropout, indeed, hinders the accumulation of adequate levels of human capital and anticipates entry into the unskilled labor market.Thus, policy-makers should aim at the extension and efficacy of compulsory education to the secondary level to avoid future under-education problems to promote a skilled workforce and encourage economic development and growth in the long run.     

学术史研究的新境界

进化史观的传播,新史学思潮的初步确立,冲击着传统学术史的编纂方式。进入二十世纪后,摆脱由纪传体史书演化而来的学案体学术史束缚,编撰崭新的章节体学术史,成为历史编撰学的重要课题。在建构中国学术史的新体系的历程中,出现了象梁启超著的《论中国学术史变迁之大势》,刘师培的《周末学术史序》,章太炎的《清儒》、《学隐》、《学变》等用新观点、新方法写成的学术史著作,开创了学术史研究的新境界。本文主要对梁启超著的《论中国学术史变迁之大势》做较为系统的分析,兼顾对其他用新观点写出的学术史著作进行阐释。