基于DFA和SVR的GDP预测模型研究

首先对1980—2013年全国年度GDP数据进行消除趋势分析（DFA），发现GDP时序具有长记忆性，表明当前GDP值用来预测未来一段时间内的GDP值具有可行性，在此基础上利用具有非线性和强泛化能力特点的支持向量回归机（SVR），建立SVR预测模型,得到了较好的预测效果.     

基于绿色GDP的政府管理重理

当前在环境保护的加强和可持续发展战略的实施中,绿色GDP一词成为时尚,政府管理越来越强调与其相适应的法律制度、行政体制、管理制度等的建设,以最终实现最优生产、最适消费、最少废弃。本文从理论和实践的角度,探讨基于绿色GDP核算体系如何重理政府管理,改变政府管理的传统方式,发展科学的循环经济,完善全面的政绩考核和调节决策体系等,在一定程度上对政府职能的变革和完善提出了一些创新性的建议。     

中国绿色GDP核算实证分析

绿色GDP(下称GGDP)核算旨在通过改善现行的核算惯例,促进对资源环境价值的认识,进而改变经济行为。其中,资源环境价值的合理货币化是进行绿色核算的关键。研究结果表明:1991—2003年,中国资源环境损耗不断增大,占GDP的比重达8.01%~11.66%,且资源损耗比环境污染损耗更为严重;原有的国民核算体系夸大了经济的实际增长,GDP比GGDP每年高估产出2 481亿元~10 739亿元;GGDP将会随着资源环境因子覆盖面的增大而进一步降低。     

考虑环境因素下的上海世博会经济影响评价

通过对环境生态成本的分析，根据上海市2002年的投入产出表，建立了基于资源一经济一环境绿色投入产出表的绿色GDP核算方法。利用这一方法对2010年上海世博会对上海经济一环境影响进行分析研究，结果反映了上海世博会对上海的综合影响。     

自组织建模方法和GDP增长模型研究

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性。本文阐述了一种经济系统复杂性研究的有效方法-自组织建模方法,同时应用此方法建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路。     

Societal Inequality and individual subjective well-being: Results from 68 societies and over 200,000 individuals, 1981–2008

Income inequality has been contentious for millennia, a source of political conflict for centuries, and is now widely feared as a pernicious “side effect” of economic progress. But equality is only a means to an end and so must be evaluated by its consequences. The fundamental question is: What effect does a country's level of income inequality have on its citizens' quality of life, their subjective well-being? We show that in developing nations inequality is certainly not harmful but probably beneficial, increasing well-being by about 8 points out of 100. This may well be Kuznets's inverted “U”: In the earliest stages of development some are able to move out of the (poorly paying) subsistence economy into the (better paying) modern economy; their higher pay increases their well-being while simultaneously increasing inequality. In advanced nations, income inequality on average neither helps nor harms. Estimates are from random-intercept fixed-effects multi-level models, confirmed by over four dozen sensitivity tests. Data are from the pooled World Values/European Values Surveys, Waves 1 to 5 with 169 representative national samples in 68 nations, 1981 to 2009, and over 200,000 respondents, replicated and extended in the European Quality of Life Surveys.     

欧洲债务危机的主要成因分析

肇始于希腊的欧洲债务危机到目前为止都没有停息的迹象,甚至还呈蔓延之势。欧洲债务危机爆发的直接原因是在金融危机的背景下,政府支出规模持续扩大,导致财政赤字居高不下,最终使得国债规模超过政府的偿还能力,出现明显的违约可能性。同时,国际竞争力不足,导致出口受阻,使得资金问题更加严重。从更深层次看,产业结构不合理,经济发展速度缓慢,过低的投资率和储蓄率及过高的储蓄投资转化率,都是导致欧债危机的重要原因。     

In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models

This article considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension-reduction devices: principal components, ridge, Landweber Fridman, and partial least squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross-validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods outperform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors’ forecasting ability.     

农民工生存现状与和谐城市构建

城市化进程中的民工潮是中国由传统农业社会向现代工业社会过渡的大势所趋。随着城镇二三产业发展加快,农民工进入城市的人数逐渐增多,已经事实上成为城市建设者和生存者的一员（社会阶层）。但在城市GDP大幅增长的同时,农民工与城镇居民在现实生活方面的差距却越来越大,已经严重地影响到社会的稳定发展。当前,农民工的生存、发展同题应当引起各级政府部门的高度重视。只有真正做到农民工在政治权益、经济待遇上的公平、公正,才能保证社会的和谐发展。