Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

Toward a sociology of global comparative placemaking

I call for a globally informed sociology of comparative placemaking that integrates historical and contemporary processes and includes the ephemeral, institutional, and personal. By placemaking, I am referring to the explicit or tacit cooperation among people to create, maintain, and give meaning to places in space through bodily occupation given differential resources and constraints. I review select place, space, and community-based literature about urban, Black, migrant, LGBTQ, and international populations to think about how we can build upon and integrate multiple theoretical, methodological, and epistemological insights to form an explicit placemaking research agenda. A US focus on neighborhoods contrasts with a comparative examination of global urban networks, social polarization, and transformation of the built environment in the interdisciplinary field of global urban studies (Ren, 2018). I argue for a placemaking research agenda that bridges insight from US Urban Sociology with Global Urban Studies to consider how various structures and actors constrain and facilitate place projects. With a globally reaching and comparatively informed sociology of placemaking, we can illuminate our multi-structured story of place and agency in context. We can answer questions about how and why we co-create and are simultaneously disciplined by the process of creation.     

Comparison of labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used epidural analgesia in labour and those who did not: A prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo compare labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used versus did not use intrapartum epidural analgesia.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingTwo maternity hospitals in Ireland.PopulationA total of 1221 nulliparous women who gave birth vaginally or by emergency caesarean section.MethodsMultinomial logistic regression was used to analyse categorical outcomes, with results presented as ratios of relative risks (RRR). For dichotomous outcomes we used logistic regression, with results presented as odds ratios (OR).Main outcome measuresMode of birth, IV syntocinon use, pyrexia (≥38 °C), antibiotic treatment, first stage labour ≥10 h, second stage labour ≥2 h, blood loss (≥500 mls, ≥1000 mls), perineal trauma. Neonatal outcomes included Apgar score ≥7 at 1 min and 5 min, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, and infant feeding method.ResultsWomen using EA were more likely to require a vacuum-assisted birth (RRR 3.35, p < 0.01) or forceps-assisted birth (RRR 11.69, p < 0.01). Exposure to EA was associated with significantly greater risk of ≥10 h first (OR 6.72, p = 0.01) and ≥2 h second (OR 2.25, p < 0.01) stage labour, increased likelihood of receiving IV syntocinon (OR 9.38, p < 0.01), antibiotics (OR 2.97, p < 0.01) and a greater probability of pyrexia (OR 10.26, p < 0.01). Women who used EA were half as likely to be breastfeeding at three months postpartum (OR 0.53, p < 0.01). No differences were observed between groups in neonatal outcomes.ConclusionsOur data shows significant associations between EA use and several intrapartum outcomes.     

Professional blinders? The novel as an eye-opener in organizational analysis

ABSTRACT

Scholarly textbooks often follow a logic where suitable empirical cases are selected to illustrate the theoretical and analytical points that we as scholars want to make. But what would happen if we would do the opposite: build a textbook on a novel written by a novelist for such purpose and let the theories explain the actions and emotions of fictional characters? In this article, we share and reflect upon our experiences of co-authoring a textbook in organization theory together with a professional novelist. We argue that the novel can function as an eye-opener in organizational analysis, forcing us to look beyond more static and rationalistic perspectives on organizations as well as the stereotypes of such. We build and relate our experiences to the growing literature about using fiction in scholarly work and discuss the potential of such genre-bending work when we bring in flesh and blood into the analyses.     

投敌叛变罪若干疑难问题研讨

投敌叛变罪作为危害国家安全的一种重罪,刑法学界的研究状况相对较为薄弱,为此应立足于刑法规定,并紧密结合司法实践,对投敌叛变罪的本质属性、客观表现、罪过形式、罪数形态、犯罪形态及其死刑适用等几个重大疑难问题进行较为深入的研究。     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

我校医学影像专业实施素质教育的实践与探索

三峡大学医学院开办医学影像专业有 16年历史 ,经历了从专科向本科转型过度。在素质教育和创新意识培养方面经过了多年的探索实践。大专层次的教育为社会培养了一批临床应用型专业人才 ,缓解了市场需求的压力 ,但部分学生客观上存在着知识面较窄小 ,缺乏后劲的问题。实施本科教育全面提高学生的综合素质需要在多方面下工夫 :转变教育思想 ,更新教育观念 ;转变培养模式 ;优化组合构建新的课程体系 ;强化科研 ,以科研促教学 ;通才教育与专才教育并举。探索本科生素质教育 6年 ,取得了可喜成绩 ,积累了一些经验     

悼红轩里增删遍,料定知音旷代存——拜读贺信民先生《红情绿意——<红楼梦>点面论》

三十多年的耕耘,《红情绿意——〈红楼梦〉点面论》的面世,成为贺信民先生贡献于红学界的又一丰硕成果。书中宏观运幄与微观烛照兼长,用生命体验来感悟红楼,在慧眼洞察的缕缕新意之中折射着贺信民先生“研红”的风雨征程,折射着红学界积火传薪的优良学术传承。     

论奥斯古德对昆明高峣社区的人类学研究

1938年夏天,美国年轻学者科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德为了履行与燕京大学的合作计划,不远万里来到滇池西岸一个名不见经传的小村庄调查.1961年,他开启尘封的笔记本,整理旧资料,补充新文献,完成了<旧中国的农村生活:对云南高峣的社区研究>.70年过去,重温科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德的研究历程,我们仍会从中获得许多有益的启示.