Heteroscedastic Global Tests that the Regression Parameters for Two or More Independent Groups are Identical

Simulation results are reported on methods that allow both within group and between group heteroscedasticity when testing the hypothesis that independent groups have identical regression parameters. The methods are based on a combination of extant techniques, but their finite-sample properties have not been studied. Included are results on the impact of removing all leverage points or just bad leverage points. The method used to identify leverage points can be important and can improve control over the Type I error probability. Results are illustrated using data from the Well Elderly II study.     

冷战后中国多边首脑外交的特点与动因

冷战后，中国以亚太地区和联合国为中心，开展了积极的多边首脑外交。其具有力度不断加大、内容逐渐多元、外在制度完备、内在缺乏约束等特点。经济全球化、集团化和全球性问题的日益突出，则是中国开展多边首脑外交的重要推动力量。     

德国1938年承认伪满洲国的原因

自1931年伪满洲国出笼后,德国政府采取并基本上维持了不承认政策。但是到了1938年2月,德国纳粹政府却背信弃义,不顾中国政府的反对,公开承认伪满。究其原因,主要在于:承认伪满是希特勒实施对外扩张战略的重要组成部分;纳粹德国已经完成了承认伪满的组织准备;陶德曼调停失败促使纳粹政府更加重日轻华;狄克逊对于纳粹党决策层有着重要的影响;承认伪满是德国与日本讨价还价的筹码等。     

浅谈德国统一与德国现代化

统一和现代化并不是同质的 ,两者之间不存在必然的因果关系。然而在德国近代这一特定的历史条件下 ,统一与现代化有着极为密切的特殊联系。德国的现代化需要民族的统一 ,而现代化的进一步开展又有力地推动了国家的统一。统一一方面成为现代化的动因 ,另一方面又为现代化开辟了广阔的国内市场、提供了强大的支持与保护。德国的统一与德国的现代化之间的密切关系促进了双方的共同发展 ,同时也结出了影响 2 0世纪上半叶德国乃至世界历史的恶果。     

珍珠遗产历久弥新--2005中国镇江赛珍珠学术研讨会综述

在纪念中国抗日战争、世界反法西斯战争胜利60周年前夕,历史文化名城镇江第三次举行赛珍珠学术研讨会,纪念中国人民的朋友、美国女作家赛珍珠诞辰113周年.来自海内外逾百位专家学者研究和探讨了这位1938年诺贝尔文学奖得主的文学创作的题材特性、主题意蕴及艺术构成;考察和评估了她当年反映我国抗日斗争的文学作品、支持中国人民抗日的政论言论以及大量卓有成效的援华抗日活动的功绩;思考和展望了她所留给我们的遗产,在今天全球化和本土化趋势并存发展的语境下,其跨文化的独特经历及对文化多元共存、互相尊重的认识所具有的特殊价值和深远意义.     

近代天皇制:日本发动对外战争的罪魁

近代天皇制是日本对外侵略战争连绵不断之深层次、制度意义上的原因。因为近代天皇制是日本政治制度的核心 ,是军国主义的基础 ;天皇是战时国家的最高军事统帅 ,是国家最高领导人和最终决策者 ,天皇无论是在战前、战时、战后 ,都是日本国民教育的精神领袖。     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

政府化行为·社会化组织·市场化运作--德国国防工业管理与军备采购模式的分析

本文在概述二战后德国国防战略方针的转变和介绍其国防工业管理与军备采购的现行机构与政策之同时 ,重点阐述并归纳总结出德国国防工业管理与军备采购模式科学与有效运行的三项内因 :政府化行为、社会化组织、市场化运作。     

Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

中德成人教育的若干比较与认识

建国55年来,中国成人教育取得的成就令人瞩目.与继续教育十分成熟发达的联邦德国相比,我国成人教育与其有若干基本共同点,但在管理模式、教学组织与内容、从业人员结构及教育经费筹措等方面存在重要差别.加快我国成人教育的发展,必须调整现有成人教育结构,改革现行成人教育管理体制,完善终身教育体系,广泛运用现代网络技术,加强成人教育研究的咨询与信息统计交流.