A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Using concept mapping as a planning tool: Child welfare citizen review panels

Citizen Review Panels (CRPs) are groups of citizen volunteers authorized by U.S. federal law to examine state child welfare agencies. These groups inspect policies and practices related to child protection responsibilities and are tasked with making recommendations for systemic improvement. Despite the federal mandate for each state to develop a CRP and the potential of these groups to positively impact child welfare practices, there is a dearth in the literature related to CRPs. Consequently, planning and evaluation processes of these groups vary widely. This study reports on the use of concept mapping (CM) to outline a framework for planning and subsequently evaluating the CRP in one southeastern state. CM is a mixed-method research approach that uses multi-dimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses to explore an area of study. Through these analyses, the method creates visual depictions of conceptual relationships between ideas. Data yielded a seven cluster concept map that CRP members (N = 36) utilized for planning processes, and subsequently for developing an internal evaluation tool. Results from this study offer a unifying framework by which CRPs, and similar groups in other areas can utilize for planning and evaluation purposes. After a review of pertinent literature on CRPs, this article explicates CM processes utilized in this study, describes results, discusses lessons learned, and outlines apposite areas for future CRP research.     

从WTO规则析我国农业国内支持制度的完善

WTO相关协议允许各国采用一定的农业国内支持措施，尤其是《农产品协定》的绿箱条款更指明了农业国内支持的方向。我国在入世协议中也对农业国内支持作了承诺。为此，要发展农业，应在遵守上述WTO规则的基础上逐步完善我国现行的农业国内支持制度。     

社会支持在灾后心理危机干预中的作用

心理危机干预通过及时控制和减缓灾难的心理社会影响,促进了受灾者心理健康的重建。然而,当前我国灾区的心理干预工作存在着将心理危机干预与社会支持相混淆又相脱离的背反现象。调查和事实证实,只有实现二者的互动尤其是充分发挥社会支持系统的作用,才能够既促进灾后心理危机干预的专业性功能提升,又进一步增强实务工作的科学性和有效性。     

南京国民政府时期南洋侨教政策负面影响述评

由于历史和现实的缘故，国民政府十分关注海外华侨尤其南洋华侨的教育，形成了比较完善的华侨教育体系，学校和学生数量呈上升趋势，学生素质也不断提高。然而由于国民政府侨教政策自身固有的弊病，给南洋侨教带来了相当的消极作用，限制了南洋侨教事业的进一步发展。     

全力支持河套大学人才培养水平评估 构建巴彦淖尔完善的国民教育体系

10月份,教育部将组织专家组对河套大学进行人才培养工作水平评估,对河套大学而言,这既是机遇也是挑战。经过21年的发展,河套大学取得了可喜的成绩。通过这次评估,河套大学要理清思路、深化改革,认真整改,迈向新高。教育行政部门大力支持对河套大学人才培养水平评估,支持河套大学的发展。     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.     

The Impact of Items and Anchors on Parent–Child Reports of Problem Behavior

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that parent and child reports of child behavior and emotional functioning often do not agree in terms of symptom severity or even symptom presence. Given the potential clinical impact that discrepant reports may have on the therapeutic process, a significant amount of research has addressed the factors influencing this observed discrepancy. Traditionally, this research has evaluated the impact of demographic factors on mean differences and obtained correlation coefficients between parent and child reports. The current research improves upon previous research in this area in two ways. First, the current research uses parent and child measures with identical rather than similar items as is commonly found in previous research. Second, the current research moves beyond identifying demographic influences on discrepant reports by explaining observed discrepancies in terms of differences in parent and child perceptions of typical child behavior.David Carlston and Benjamin Ogles are affiliated with Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, USA.Funding for this project was provided by the Ohio Department of Mental Health.     

Social Support Interventions in Migrant Populations

The phenomenon of immigration has led to an important increasein the number of social programmes and services for migrantpopulations in many European countries. However, some investigationshave shown that the use of formal resources is extremely lowin these groups. In contrast to the limited utilization of programmesand services, research in the field of social psychology hasrevealed that the primary source of help and support for immigrantsis their own informal social network. After analysing the characteristics,advantages and limitations of formal and informal support systems,this paper presents a typology of social support interventionswith migrant populations that integrates both types of support.Four levels are differentiated: dyadic interventions, socialnetwork interventions, mutual aid groups and community interventions.The development of programmes to strengthen the informal supportsystem is emphasized as an alternative to integrating formaland informal resources in social work practice with migrantpopulations.     

综合实践活动课程实施的问题与对策

教师的课程理论素养较差,与综合实践活动课程实施的要求不相适应;综合实践活动课程的实施缺乏相关的制度保障和社会支持,是综合实践活动课程实施中存在的主要问题.解决问题的对策是:加强对教师的培训,提高教师实施综合实践活动课程的能力;完善学校相关教研、培训及管理等制度,为综合实践活动课程的实施提供制度保障;建立良好的社会支持和保障系统,充分利用各种资源,为综合实践活动课程的实施创造更好的条件.