Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

The econometrics of female labor supply and children

This is a survey of applied econometric research on the effects of children on female labor supply. Reasons for interest in the topic, and a basic model and terminology, are reviewed. Concerns are raised about the possible endogeneity of child status variables, and about the instrumental variables approach for dealing with this problem. Alternative ways of conceptualizing and estimating child status effects are considered, together with selected empirical evidence. Relevant developments from the household demand literature are summarized. Basic issues of model choice are also discussed.     

山西大学学生身体素质状况的跟踪研究

该文通过对山西大学在校学生 1992～ 1999年的素质状况的跟踪研究 ,针对显示出的问题提出相应对策 ,为改善大学生的身体素质提供科学依据     

Why do French women have more children than German women? Family policies and attitudes towards child care outside the home

French mothers are still more often economically active than their German counterparts and birth rates in France remain higher than in West Germany. By comparing two countries with many similarities in their family policies, I try to demonstrate that the differences between state policies per se should not be overestimated in explaining the persistent gap in their fertility level. As far as women's attitudes towards child care outside of the home are concerned, there is a strong divide between France and West Germany. In the Old Länder in Germany there is some congruence between attitudes and beliefs towards child care and the shortage of child care provision, especially for toddlers. As a product of the interaction between shortage of child care provision, women's attitudes regarding child care and mothers' low labour force participation rate, German family policy reinforces these attitudes. Conversely, there is slow impetus for policy makers to really develop a comprehensive public child care system. Against this cultural and institutional background, an increasing number of women give priority to their job or to their career. In France, by contrast, norms in respect of education of toddlers and young children have evolved in tandem with the change in attitudes of women towards employment. A majority of French women feel legitimised to be in employment on a full-time basis and to have their children cared for outside the home. Their attitudes are in tune with the premises of family policy which has integrated the model of 'the employed mother'. Les Francaises continuent àavoir plus d'enfants que les Allemandes de l'Ouest alors que les différences entre les taux d'activité des mères se sont progressivement atténuées. La proportion de femmes qui n'ont pas d'enfants, en particulier, est beaucoup plus importante en Allemagne de l'Ouest. En comparant deux pays dont les politiques sociales et familiales présentent des similarités, on se propose d'aller au delà des explications les plus couramment admises. En France, contrairement à l'Allemagne de l'Ouest, les normes régissant l'éducation des jeunes enfants ont évolué en phase avec les changements qui ont affectéles comportements des femmes sur le marché du travail. Il est devenu légitime socialement pour les Francaises de travailler à plein temps tout en faisant garder son enfant à l'extérieur du domicile. Les Allemandes de l'Ouest, par contre, intériorisent toujours fortement la norme selon laquelle l'éducation d'un jeune enfant nécessite la présence permanente de sa mère. Mais de plus en plus éduquées, elles sont amenées à accorder la priorité à leur maintien dans l'emploi et à renoncer à la maternité. Pour mieux comprendre les différences de fácondité entre les deux pays, il semble donc fructueux de se focaliser sur les interactions à l'aeuvre entre leurs politiques familiales, les valeurs auxquelles adhèrent la majorité des couples concernant l'éducation des jeunes enfants et les attitudes des femmes face au travail rémunéré.     

The transition to parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational status and the timing of first births

This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the post-ponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, Colorado, 30 April–2 May 1992.     

A regression-based smoothing spline Monte Carlo algorithm for pricing American options in discrete time

American options in discrete time can be priced by solving optimal stopping problems. This can be done by computing so-called continuation values, which we represent as regression functions defined recursively by using the continuation values of the next time step. We use Monte Carlo to generate data, and then we apply smoothing spline regression estimates to estimate the continuation values from these data. All parameters of the estimate are chosen data dependent. We present results concerning consistency and the estimates’ rate of convergence.     

Changes in the labour market and health inequalities during the years of the recent economic downturn in Italy

There is widespread concern that episodes of unemployment and unstable working conditions adversely affect health. We add to the debate by focusing on the relationship between work trajectory and the self-reported health of Italian men and women during the present economic downturn. Relying on Italian data in the EU-SILC project (from 2007 to 2010), our sample includes all individuals aged 30 to 60 in 2010, and uses multivariate binomial regression models for preliminary analyses and the Structural Equations modelling (SEM) to observe the cumulative effects of health status according to different job trajectories. Our main findings show similar pictures for men and women. Individuals who are unemployed, ejected or in precarious occupational positions have a higher risk of worsening their health status during these years.     

A multiple warm standby δ-shock system with a repairman having multiple vacations

In this article, a warm standby n-unit system is studied. The system is operational as long as there is one unit normal. The unit online, which has a lifetime distribution governed by a phase-type distribution, is also attacked by a shock from some external causes. Assume that shocks arrive according to a Poisson process. Whenever an interarrival time of shock is less than a threshold, the unit online fails. The lifetimes of the units in warm standby is exponentially distributed. A repairman who can take multiple vacations repairs the failed units based on the “first-in-first-out” rule. The repair times and the vacation times of repairman are governed by different phase-type distributions. For this system, the Markov process governing the system is constructed. The system is studied in a transient and stationary regime; the availability, the reliability, the rates of occurrence of the different types of failures, and the working probability of the repairman are calculated. A numerical application is performed to illustrate the calculations.     

Cumulative correspondence analysis using orthogonal polynomials

Taguchi's statistic has long been known to be a more appropriate measure of association of the dependence for ordinal variables compared to the Pearson chi-squared statistic. Therefore, there is some advantage in using Taguchi's statistic in the correspondence analysis context when a two-way contingency table consists at least of an ordinal categorical variable. The aim of this paper, considering the contingency table with two ordinal categorical variables, is to show a decomposition of Taguchi's index into linear, quadratic and higher-order components. This decomposition has been developed using Emerson's orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, two case studies to explain the methodology have been analyzed.     

Exponentiality test based on Renyi distance between equilibrium distributions

ABSTRACT

On the basis of Csiszar's φ-divergence discrimination information, we propose a measure of discrepancy between equilibriums associated with two distributions. Proving that a distribution can be characterized by associated equilibrium distribution, a Renyi distance of the equilibrium distributions is constructed that made us to propose an EDF-based goodness-of-fit test for exponential distribution. For comparing the performance of the proposed test, some well-known EDF-based tests and some entropy-based tests are considered. Based on the simulation results, the proposed test has better powers than those of competing entropy-based tests for the alternatives with decreasing hazard rate function. The use of the proposed test is evaluated in an illustrative example.