Older Adults’ Expectations about Mortality,Driving Life and Years Left without Driving

ABSTRACT

People are living and driving longer than ever before, with little preparation for transitioning to being non-drivers. We investigated driving expectations among drivers age 65 and older, including sociodemographic and driving context predictors. Cross-sectional data from 349 older drivers were explored to determine variation in how many years they expected to continue driving. General linear models examined predictors of both expectations. In this predominantly Black/African American sample, 76% of older drivers (mean age = 73 ± 5.7 years) expected a non-driving future, forecasting living an average of 5.75 ± 7.29 years after driving cessation. Regression models on years left of driving life and years left to live post-driving cessation predicted nearly half of the variance in older drivers’ expectations with five significant predictors: income, current age, age expected to live to, self-limiting driving to nearby places and difficulty, visualizing being a non-driver. Many older drivers expect to stop driving before end of life.     

旅游服务创新的驱动力研究——以山西为例

旅游业逐渐成为国民经济的支柱产业,对旅游业进行服务创新研究具有深远的意义。在对服务创新的理论进行回顾的基础上,归纳总结了旅游服务创新的四个决定因素和驱动力,即：企业家精神、技术推动、需求拉动、区域创新体系;以此为模型对山西旅游服务创新的驱动力进行了分析。     

高倍增力离心式离合器的工作原理与设计计算

介绍了两种采用高倍增力机构的离心式离合器—铰杆增力离心式离合器和斜楔增力离心式离合器,说明了其工作原理,给出了其输出力和输出转矩、接合角速度和接合转速、额定角速度和额定转速、弹簧最大工作载荷的计算公式。高倍增力离心式离合器结构紧凑,输出转矩的能力显著提高     

内蒙古畜牧业龙头企业带动模式管理中存在的问题及对策

畜牧业产业化是内蒙古畜牧业发展的必由之路,龙头企业带动模式是畜牧业产业化发展的重要形式之一,在内蒙古畜牧业的发展过程中发挥着重要作用。但畜牧业龙头企业带动模式管理中存在着种种问题,解决这些问题,改善畜牧业龙头企业带动模式管理,对内蒙古畜牧业持续快速发展具有重要意义。     

试论党的思想路线与马克思主义中国化的内在联系

中国共产党正是以思想路线的坚持、发展与创新为动力不断推进着马克思主义中国化的历史进程,创立了一个又一个伟大理论成果。从逻辑和历史的角度进一步厘清党的思想路线与马克思主义中国化的内在联系,对于继续推进马克思主义中国化的伟大事业至关重要。党的思想路线是马克思主义中国化的哲学基础,党的思想路线是马克思主义中国化的生命线,党的思想路线创新是马克思主义中国化的精神动力。     

城镇化进程中人口因素对水资源消耗的驱动作用分析——以太湖流域为例

基于IPAT模型及对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解法构建了包括人口规模、城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度等人口因素在内的水资源消耗驱动因素模型,该模型从人口、经济角度全面探讨了水资源消耗的驱动因素并作了系统的量化。运用该模型研究太湖流域水资源消耗变化的驱动因素,分析结果表明:经济规模是影响太湖流域用水变化的主导因素;产业结构和产业用水强度对水资源消耗的增加起到抑制作用,并且产业用水强度对水资源消耗增长的抑制效应大于产业结构;人口规模对水资源消耗的增长具有显著影响;城镇化水平和城乡居民生活用水强度的历史驱动贡献率相对较小,但驱动力巨大,应予以足够重视。通过优化产业结构,以及降低单位GDP耗水量,提高水资源利用效率能够有效降低太湖流域水资源消耗。     

Work and rest in the long-distance road transport industry in Australia

To date management of fatigue in professional drivers has largely focused on strategies that limit the amount of time spent on the job. These approaches have, however, not taken into account the well-documented effect of time of day. Consequently, the likely impact of the pattern and timing of work and rest has received little attention. The results revealed that the group of drivers who did the shortest trips and worked the shortest weekly hours were the lowest reporters of fatigue, although longer hours were not always associated with the highest reporting of fatigue. In contrast, the shortest working hours were associated with earliest onset of fatigue. For all drivers, the influence of circadian rhythms was evident in the occurrence of fatigue, with better management of the problem evident among drivers who were able to arrange the timing of rest to more closely coincide with periods of fatigue. Thus, time of day appeared to be a more important influence in determining effective rest than did period of work. These findings raise questions about the validity of the assumption underlying work hour regulations for long-distance drivers which, currently, are universally based on duration of work.     

进口对中国经济增长驱动作用的实证分析

文章通过理论与实证分析阐述了进口对中国经济增长的驱动作用。理论上主要从当前的国际环境及中国的国情两方面论述了适当增加进口的必要性和可行性。实证上则是利用动态分布滞后(ADL)模型对进口与GDP关系进行协整分析并通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)进一步说明进口对中国经济增长的促进作用。最后根据以上分析提出建议:中国应适当增加进口以解决当前存在的贸易问题。     

Modeling time series data with semi-reflective boundaries

Time series data are increasingly common in many areas of the health sciences, and in some instances, may have natural boundaries serving as performance guidelines or as thresholds associated with adverse outcomes. Such boundaries may be labeled as semi-reflective, in that the time series values have an increased chance of returning towards middle levels as the boundaries are approached, but boundaries can still be breached. In this paper we review a model that was previously proposed for such data and we investigate its statistical properties. Specifically, this model consists of a third-order auto-regressive projection component, parameterized as a constrained linear combination of linear, flat, and quadratic trends, and an error term that uses a logistic regression model for its sign. We describe and compare a previously-proposed estimation method with a modified version thereof, using computer simulations, as well as data examples from heart monitoring and from a driving simulator. We find that the two methods tend to give different results, with the modified technique having lower bias and more accurate confidence intervals than the previously-proposed method.     

四川省甘孜州、阿坝州城镇女性从业者的就业结构与驱动因素探究——基于全国第四次经济普查四川省数据的分析

就业是民生之基,是社会稳定之本,也是女性劳动者的基本权利、提高女性自身经济地位的重要手段,更是性别平等的测试器。在四川省甘孜州、阿坝州,城镇女性从业者在教育、卫生等行业有较高从业优势,就业集中分布于公共管理、教育、卫生、文化等领域,在零售、餐饮、住宿等市场化行业的集中度不明显;产业结构、城镇化与乡城劳动力转移、民营经济发展水平、城镇女性人力资本以及择业观念等影响城镇女性的行业就业行为;传统服务业与线上业态、旅游相关产业、生态红利产业、农业产业链延伸产业等是未来城镇女性劳动力的就业拓展领域;提升女性人力资本有助于女性从业者的就业结构优化。