外出务工对农村老年人家庭子女养老分工影响研究

文章利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2009年在安徽省巢湖市进行的＂安徽省老年人生活福利状况＂抽样调查数据,采用多元Logistic回归分析了农村老年人家庭儿子与女儿外出务工状况对子女兄弟姐妹养老分工的影响。结果表明,外出务工对子女养老分工有显著影响,并且儿子和女儿外出务工的影响存在显著性别差异。儿子全部外出务工,子女之间倾向不平均分担对老年父母的经济支持,女儿全部外出务工,子女之间倾向于共同平均分担经济支持;儿子全部外出务工或女儿全部外出务工,子女之间都倾向于不给予老年父母生活照料。     

Explaining trends in UK immigration

Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration, particularly in the 1990s.

中国智力流失及其经济影响估算

 智力流失是国际移民对母国经济影响研究中最经常讨论的话题。作为一个发展中国家，中国同样也面临着智力流失问题。移民移出直接带走了母国在其身上投入的财政性教育支出，这是移民对母国的直接经济影响。国际移民对母国的福利影响模型表明，移民移出引致产出下降，使得移民潜在的产出和税收贡献未能实现，这是移民引致的间接经济影响。对中国经验估计表明，中国智力流失引致较为严重的负面影响。中国应采取适当的政策以充分发挥海外移民对母国的正向效应。     

The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden

This study analyzes emigration propensities for natives and immigrants delineating among immigrant emigrants between return and onward migration. Results indicate that emigrants are positively selected in terms of upper education. Well-educated immigrants have a higher probability of leaving for third-country destinations than returning to countries of origin. Predicted age–income profiles for immigrants show that return migrants have higher adjusted mean income levels than non-emigrants up to the age of 40. Onward migrants have lower predicted income levels across the age distribution due to this group’s composition and relatively low employment levels in Sweden. Separate estimations by region of origin indicate that within each group, onward migrants are more positively selected then return migrants in terms of income.

Movers and Stayers: A Study of Emigration from Sweden 1993–2014

A standard proposition in the migration literature is that emigrants are not drawn randomly from their source population, but rather compose a self-selected group in terms of labour market characteristics. Such self-selection refers to observed characteristics, such as education, or occupation, as well as unobserved characteristics such as cognitive abilities. However, due to data limitations, most previous studies on selectivity have analysed immigrants’ characteristics at destinations rather than using data from their source countries. This paper assesses emigrants’ selectivity patterns by following the full-risk population of natives over a long period of time (over 20 years). It also includes an innovative measure of selectivity on unobserved characteristics—namely, school performance—as a proxy for individual motivation and cognitive abilities, and it compares it to the widely used measure of income residuals. We use Swedish register data and assess the probabilities of leaving Sweden between 1993 and 2014 among men and women born in Sweden between 1975 and 1978. We further look for differences among Swedish emigrants who chose different countries of destination. The findings suggest that emigrants are positively self-selected in terms of their observed characteristics, whereas selectivity patterns in terms of unobserved characteristics are more complex. When we assess unobservable characteristics using compulsory school grades as a proxy, emigrants are found to be positively self-selected, while when using income residuals, we find that the effect is U-shaped. Individuals leaving to non-Nordic countries are also found to be more positively self-selected than those heading to neighbouring countries. We discuss these findings and their implications in light of economic and sociological theories.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09634-3.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

The Impact of Salmon Bias on the Hispanic Mortality Advantage: New Evidence from Social Security Data

A great deal of research has focused on factors that may contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox in the United States. In this paper, we examine the role of the salmon bias hypothesis—the selective return of less-healthy Hispanics to their country of birth—on mortality at ages 65 and above. These analyses are based on data drawn from the Master Beneficiary Record and NUMIDENT data files of the Social Security Administration. These data provide the first direct evidence regarding the effect of salmon bias on the Hispanic mortality advantage. Although we confirm the existence of salmon bias, it is of too small a magnitude to be a primary explanation for the lower mortality of Hispanic than non-hispanic (NH)-White primary social security beneficiaries. Longitudinal surveys that follow individuals in and out of the United States are needed to further explore the role of migration in the health and mortality of foreign-born US residents and factors that contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox.     

Deconstruction of National Identity in the Third Reich: Nazisprache und Geopolitik

Under the Third Reich, concepts of Geopolitik and Lebensraum were redefined. The Nazi Party developed Nazisprache, a coded, convoluted vocabulary used to describe, delimit and eventually destroy undesirable populations (primarily Jews, Gypsies, mentally ill, disabled, etc.). By corrupting conventional German meaning, Nazi officials legally extended borders of Nazi-controlled territories while successfully suppressing knowledge of their cruelty. As Nazi communications grew more circumspect, ‘euphemism’ increased; national and personal boundaries were linguistically renamed and politically re-conceptualised, potentiating the thorough dissolution of nation, person and ethnic entity.

‘A yielding to the form prepares for assent to the matter identified with it.’ (Kenneth Burke)     

Immigration and environment: A framework for establishing a shape possible relationship

Population Research and Policy Review - This paper considers conceptual, analytic and policy issues concerning US population, immigration and environment. The policy question guiding the analysis...     

The effect of emigration on human capital formation

This paper focuses on a possible effect of emigration on human capital formation. Emigration to a higher returns to skill country provides an incentive to invest in human capital. The level of human capital formation in the source country can therefore be positively correlated with the probability of emigration. Incidentally a surge in emigration can lead the source country out of an under-development trap. The implications of the model for the convergence controversy are also discussed. Received: 16 July 1997/Accepted: 28 July 1998