Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

Leaving Home Early: Passing from Girlhood to Womanhood

This paper presents a case study of a young woman’s narrative of leaving home and her transition to adulthood. The case study is part of a larger research project about young women with an experience of an early break-up from home, through running away or being thrown out. Empirical material underlying this paper consists of a qualitative study of 12 young women that have been interviewed. The aim of the study is to understand how events like running away/being thrown out of home influences their transition to adulthood. The particular narrative demonstrates how a young woman presents and accounts for such a dramatic event as running away or being thrown out from home, and how that is understood in relation to her adulthood. A further aim is to illustrate how social services efforts are reflected in her narrative.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

Closed-form likelihood estimation for one type of affine point processes

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a closed-form likelihood approximation for one type of affine point processes widely used in financial credit risk models. We proceed by first conjecturing the concrete series form of the transition density, verifying our postulation and then establishing the related coefficients by means of Kolmogorov equations. The asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimators (MLEs) are given in the end.     

Becoming the mother of a child with disabilities: a systematic literature review

The transition to motherhood starts early in pregnancy and is completed when the mother feels competent in caring for the infant. Becoming the mother of a child with disabilities is demanding as their needs are complex. The aim of the review was to appraise completed qualitative and quantitative reports on the challenges of mothers of children with disabilities regarding their own transition to motherhood. A review of the literature was carried out through, first, a computerized search strategy to identify relevant studies from selected databases and, second, quality appraisal and thematic analysis of selected studies. The transition to motherhood of children with disabilities takes place in the inside world at home, the outside world external to home and the ‘going-between’ world of travelling between the two worlds. The mothers are challenged at home to integrate basic infant care with technical care of their children. In the outside world they often struggled to ensure that their children got the necessary professional care. Travelling between their homes and healthcare services posed many problems.     

从地理决定论到结构主义:地缘政治研究方法的变迁

地缘政治学以人与环境之间的关系为分析基础,为人类重新认识自然环境提供了崭新的视角。随着全球化的发展、科学技术的进步、全球信息社会的初步形成,结构主义取代地理决定论将成为地缘政治研究的主要方法。     

“二十四贤”与“汉魏革命”

十卷本《陶潜集·四八目》所载的魏文帝于汉魏禅代之际彰表"二十四贤"之事,可以认为源自确切的汉末魏晋史料,具有重要的史料价值。"二十四贤"的人选构成来自于东汉后期的"清流"士人群体,既包括了积极参与反外戚、反宦官政治活动的官僚士人,也包括了以隐居不仕表达消极反抗之意的民间处士。曹丕在代汉建魏前夕彰表如是面貌的"二十四贤",显示了曹魏王朝君臣以汉末清流的继承者自居的政治立场,也是着眼于重构王朝秩序的"汉魏革命"的组成部分。     

中东剧变以来的东盟与海合会关系研究

中东剧变对阿拉伯世界整体格局和阿拉伯板块在国际体系中的地位产生了深刻影响。阿拉伯世界转型促使海合会正不断向阿拉伯君主共同体转型,也加快了东盟本身及其许多成员国的民主化进程。面对当前海合会从海湾次地区力量迈向中东地区性力量的战略走向,东盟在政治与经济层面加强了与海合会的协作,海合会的大国外交战略也将不断变化中的东盟纳入其重要战略目标领域。尽管如此,双边政治合作仍滞后于经贸合作,东盟—海合会自由贸易区仍是未来的首要目标。