Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

民族互嵌社区精准治理的理论向度与实践路径——以贵州省兴义市S街道社区为例

民族互嵌社区是中华民族多元一体格局空间场域延展的实践形态,是对“各民族相互嵌入式的社会结构和社区环境”这一时代命题的现实阐释。现代城市社区功能的集聚和细化为民族互嵌的再造及重释提供了场域空间,由于民族互嵌社区具有公共性、聚合性和互动性的本质特征,从而形成了立体化嵌套结构,催生出精准互嵌理论和实践的“双重愿景”:理论层面,要深刻把握民族互嵌社区精准治理的目标向度、方法向度、内容向度;实践层面,要精准识别民族互嵌社区的场域情境,以智能技术描绘民族互嵌过程的“全景图”和“晴雨表”,通过社区制度体系的精准供给,提升民族互嵌社区精准治理的效能。     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

国家权力与城市空间:当代中国城市基层社会治理变革

确立和调整城市治理的空间策略是现代国家的重要任务。改革前中国的单位体制,使国家能够依靠单位实现“单元分隔”式的治理模式。改革以来,这种整齐划一的空间战略无法适应新的城市社会变迁。在城市社区管理体制改革中,出现了三种不同的国家空间战略,即“政党国家”,“行政国家”和“社会化国家”模式。当前城市社区改革的困难和复杂性体现了以上三种空间战略的对立和冲突。     

从杜夫海纳的困境中突围——《审美经验现象学》中的文学作品理论

作为现象学美学经典文本的《审美经验现象学》对审美活动进行了深入的剖析,但令人遗憾的是,杜夫海纳在该书中却回避了对同为艺术作品的文学作品的分析,这种回避源自杜夫海纳对于语言优先性的坚持。如果从语言的陈述性入手,或许可以为文学理论的构建提供一个新的思路。     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

创新活动的思维机制

创新思维是具有实践性、整合性和开创性的思维 ,创新的思维发生主要表现在 :发现导致创新的问题 ,想象可能创新的空间 ,洞察推出创新的机遇 ,反馈动态创新的信息。创新思维是在不确定、不完全信息、博弈行为中展开的。创新思维要开发隐含知识和利用软件系统     

Leaving Home Early: Passing from Girlhood to Womanhood

This paper presents a case study of a young woman’s narrative of leaving home and her transition to adulthood. The case study is part of a larger research project about young women with an experience of an early break-up from home, through running away or being thrown out. Empirical material underlying this paper consists of a qualitative study of 12 young women that have been interviewed. The aim of the study is to understand how events like running away/being thrown out of home influences their transition to adulthood. The particular narrative demonstrates how a young woman presents and accounts for such a dramatic event as running away or being thrown out from home, and how that is understood in relation to her adulthood. A further aim is to illustrate how social services efforts are reflected in her narrative.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

General C. L. Chennault

Because of recent legislation, many students with mild disabilities enroll in high school social studies courses in general education rather than special education settings. Therefore, teachers may have students with learning disabilities, behavioral disorders, communication disorders, and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder in their history, geography, economics, and political science courses. Typical characteristics of these students include lowlevel reading and writing skills, processing problems, memory disorders, language problems, organizational deficits, and behavioral problems. These characteristics present challenges for the students and social studies teachers; however, there are strategies that will help the students succeed. The author summarizes the disability categories and related characteristics and describes textbook, writing, memory, organizational, and instructional modifications to address the challenges.