To be or not to be valid in testing the significance of the slope in simple quantitative linear models with autocorrelated errors

In this article, the validity of procedures for testing the significance of the slope in quantitative linear models with one explanatory variable and first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] errors is analyzed in a Monte Carlo study conducted in the time domain. Two cases are considered for the regressor: fixed and trended versus random and AR(1). In addition to the classical t -test using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator of the slope and its standard error, we consider seven t -tests with n-2\,\hbox{df} built on the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator or an estimated GLS estimator, three variants of the classical t -test with different variances of the OLS estimator, two asymptotic tests built on the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator, the F -test for fixed effects based on the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimator in the mixed-model approach, two t -tests with n - 2 df based on first differences (FD) and first-difference ratios (FDR), and four modified t -tests using various corrections of the number of degrees of freedom. The FDR t -test, the REML F -test and the modified t -test using Dutilleul's effective sample size are the most valid among the testing procedures that do not assume the complete knowledge of the covariance matrix of the errors. However, modified t -tests are not applicable and the FDR t -test suffers from a lack of power when the regressor is fixed and trended ( i.e. , FDR is the same as FD in this case when observations are equally spaced), whereas the REML algorithm fails to converge at small sample sizes. The classical t -test is valid when the regressor is fixed and trended and autocorrelation among errors is predominantly negative, and when the regressor is random and AR(1), like the errors, and autocorrelation is moderately negative or positive. We discuss the results graphically, in terms of the circularity condition defined in repeated measures ANOVA and of the effective sample size used in correlation analysis with autocorrelated sample data. An example with environmental data is presented.     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.     

现代激进主义文化思潮中的家庭重建——以《女铎》小说中的婚姻家庭观为视角

《女铎》是创刊于1912年,停刊于1951年的一份较有影响的妇女刊物。除了宣扬基督教义,还致力于提高妇女道德及普及新知识。《女铎》发表的小说多展示普通人日常生活中的温馨,所关涉的主题多为呈现于婚姻家庭中舍己的爱,这种爱又多是经历生活的艰难及双方的摩擦后而得的,因而显得愈发可贵。其中的女性常常不是软弱无力或哀怨愁苦,而是具有自尊自立自强的人格、直面人生困境的勇气以及对家庭邻舍的责任等美德。小说呈现出对女性生命价值的尊重,以及个体生命成长与贡献社会之间的平衡意识,揭示出新女性在个人与他者、感情与事业、社会与家庭等方面的调和努力,并本着建设的目的给出解决问题的答案,因而是对现代女性争取恋爱及婚姻自由之后道路的继续探索的体现。较之那些止于冲破旧家庭的新女性的塑造之作,无疑是一种深入;较之很多新文学作品中灰暗失败的新女性生活,也是一种积极的婚姻家庭模式的建造。     

路径与旨趣：近代浙江文化史研究嬗变

近代江南史研究见证并参与了近代中国社会文化的变迁,相比上海、苏南等地,浙江近代文化史研究亟需进一步拓展与深化。以革命与事件、结构与认同、学人与学派等研究路径为线索,回顾浙江近代文化史研究的关键要素,应能展望今后研究的方向：去意识形态化、突破单向度思维,以多元视角阐释近代浙江的革命群体与事件;揭示近代浙江文化现象背后深层次的社会关系和权力关系、结构与心态、集体记忆与文化认同,进一步认知近代精英与民众、国家与社会的能动关系;浙江学人在近代学术流变中发挥承前启后的作用,学人学术思想的本意及其实践成为近代浙学重建的重要参考。运用整体视角综合事件、结构、学理,积极拓展史料与理论范式,深入发掘近代浙江文化的历史经验和内在脉络,将为探索中国原理提供有效的知识与思想资源。     

论中国新时期文学“内部研究”中学者的思维困境

新时期以来,中国文学在"内部研究"方面取得了令人瞩目的成就,但仍存在诸多问题,出现了很多研究的瓶颈。造成中国新时期文学"内部研究"困境的根本原因来自于学者自身的思维困境。文学的"内部研究"发端于西方,其内部的思维形态也更多呈现的是科学的思维。新时期中国从事文学"内部研究"的学者们由于历史和时代的原因,造成科学思维训练不足,传统思维固化,激进主义思维突出等思维缺陷,这些思维困境严重影响了文学"内部研究"的深入。     

A statistical measure of internal consistency

A test for homogeneity of several populations against the simple tree alternative is proposed when the observations in various groups are subject to the same pattern of random right-censorship. The test is a generalization of the one proposed by Slivka (1970) which is useful when testing time is expensive so that an early termination of an experiment is desirable. The power of the test is examined in a simulation study.     

中国经济发展中的深层次问题

中国经济正面临何去何从的方向性问题:是进一步深化改革,抓大放小,无为而治,让市场发挥越来越多的作用;还是国进民退,让政府主导经济,发挥更多的作用?答案无疑是前者。基于以上判断,中国经济的长期深层次根本问题在于:深层次制度障碍未破除,深层次市场化改革滞后,政府、社会与市场的治理边界界定不清晰、不合理。这就导致了三重三轻的不科学发展观:重政府轻市场、重国富轻民富、重发展轻服务。要解决这些深层次问题,下一步改革的关键在于深入推进政府职能的两个根本性转变:第一,从发展型政府向服务型政府转变;第二,从全能型政府向有限型政府转变。     

Towards a Discursive Analytics of Movement: On the Making and Unmaking of Movement as an Object of Knowledge

This paper takes as its point of departure the expanding scholarly interest in issues of mobility and movement. It argues that movement is not only a physical activity which is entangled in power and meaning but is fundamentally discursively constituted. Through discussions of theory and of three examples taken from the Danish media, it is shown that the study of movement cannot be separated from that of discursive power. Access to and control over physical movement is unequally distributed. However, so is access to and control over assessing which activities can meaningfully be given the label ‘movement’ in the first place. Understanding movement in this way leads us to ask how various activities are given the status of ‘movement’, as well as how they are given meaning and importance, by whom and with what consequences. This involves asking how the poles between which movement takes place are themselves identified; how the distinction and the relationship between inside and outside are designated; and how distinctions between movement and stasis inform political and cultural struggle.     

It's All a Matter of Attitude

Abstract

Studies have consistently documented an incidence rate of between 25% and 50% for domestic violence in gay and lesbian relationships. These numbers suggest that the gay and lesbian community is dealing with a significant mental health issue, one that is not being adequately addressed. If mental health professionals can be taught ways to assess for domestic violence in their work with sexual minorities, those persons being abused can learn strategies for ensuring their physical safety.