中国的人口转变完成了吗?

本文依据 1 998年我国人口一些重要指标所达到的水平 ,并通过与发达国家同类指标达到相同或相近水平时间的比较 ,判定我国人口转变过程在 2 0世纪末已经结束 ,人口增长从低增长走向零增长和人口结构性变动成为调节人口增长势态的主要因素这两个后人口转变时期人口变动的基本特征在我国已经开始显现出来     

从经济学视角重解李约瑟之谜

人口-资源禀赋的差异是中国和西欧在18世纪后文明分岔,即李约瑟之谜产生的原因。人口-资源禀赋的差异促进农业和手工业结合,阻碍市场扩大,限制技术创新。在这样的稳态的小农经济下,即使产生了一定程度的商品化生产和商品经济,但由于其运行规律和资本主义完全相悖,不可能导致工业革命的发生,这正是中国技术创新由领先变为落后的主要原因。当前,中国依然面临资源短缺的威胁,节约资源消耗、实现资源合理利用对于中国实行可持续发展依然具有现实意义。     

人口普查覆盖误差估计方法综述

人口普查工作的质量主要体现在覆盖误差的规模上.人口统计学家创建了估计人口普查覆盖误差的方法.有些方法利用独立于人口普查本身的信息,另外一些方法则利用人口行政记录的信息.由于每种方法都有其特定的形成背景和适用范围,因而没有适合于所有国家和地区的通用方法.通过对美国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国和中国的人口普查覆盖误差估计方法进行了较为详细的介绍,说明了这些方法的使用情况.研究表明,任何一种估计方法都有其局限性,需要不断改进与完善.     

High-order extensions of the Double Chain Markov Model

The Double Chain Markov Model is a fully Markovian model for the representation of time-series in random environments. In this article, we show that it can handle transitions of high-order between both a set of observations and a set of hidden states. In order to reduce the number of parameters, each transition matrix can be replaced by a Mixture Transition Distribution model. We provide a complete derivation of the algorithms needed to compute the model. Three applications, the analysis of a sequence of DNA, the song of the wood pewee, and the behavior of young monkeys show that this model is of great interest for the representation of data that can be decomposed into a finite set of patterns.     

Parenting Disputes After Separation and Divorce: Who Needs a Family Lawyer?

Australia's family law system continues to be plagued by serious delays. This article acknowledges the need for legal interventions in post‐separation parenting disputes in which individuals may be at risk, or in cases of genuine emergency. The article next contrasts cases involving significant risk or urgency with the many ‘ordinary’ (even if sometimes complex) post‐separation disputes over parenting in which these circumstances are not present. I argue that in such cases, legal advice, legally informed dispute processes, and court hearings are remnants from earlier attitudes to separation and divorce. These interventions are expensive, frequently destructive of ongoing parental relationships, and at their heart, inappropriate for considering the needs of children. They also divert time and resources from the critical investigative and legal decision‐making processes needed in urgent or risk‐related cases. I propose that legal narratives in ‘ordinary’ post‐separation parenting disputes be replaced by narratives focused on the main drivers of these disputes, which are invariably expressed in terms of relationship difficulties. Such narratives are amenable to facilitative, therapeutic, and systemic interventions aimed at achieving self‐determined resolutions. They contrast markedly with narratives reflecting common law notion of normative resolutions derived from the application of legal precedent. Key issues in the first section of the article are then teased out via the reflections of an imaginary separated parent in an ‘ordinary,’ albeit difficult and emotionally intense, dispute about how to care for the children. In the final section, I offer brief clinical and systemic reflections on past practice and on future narratives focused on individual self‐determination.     

Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review

Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as ‘mortality clustering’. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent.     

透析实施生育保险制度的局势

从社会学视角对实施生育保险制度的必要性进行探讨,分别从宏观(包括人口转变规律、经济体制改革、提高人口素质的需求三个方面)、中观(包括社会支持网络的变迁、保障女性群体地位、保障企业平等竞争三个方面)和微观层面(包括生育观念的转变、生育的风险性、体现女性的生育价值三个方面)进行层层剖析,说明实施和拓宽生育保险制度势在必行。     

人口因素对CO2排放的影响——基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

基于1995～2009年中国省际面板数据,利用面板分位数回归模型估计人口因素对我国CO2排放量的影响,结果显示:人口数量和人口城市化率是影响我国CO2排放的主要人口因素,但从影响大小上看,人口数量变化对发达省份CO2排放的影响大于欠发达省份,而人口城市化率则对欠发达省份的CO2排放具有更大的影响;家庭小型化对CO2排放的影响因省而异,对不同省份,要么没有明显的影响,要么可能导致CO2排放量增加;年龄结构目前还不是导致我国CO2排放量变化的主要人口因素;综合比较而言,经济发展水平对CO2排放的影响大于人口各因素,产业结构对CO2排放的影响小于人口数量和人口城市化率,而技术进步与CO2排放的关系则显得模糊。     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.