A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

从WTO规则析我国农业国内支持制度的完善

WTO相关协议允许各国采用一定的农业国内支持措施，尤其是《农产品协定》的绿箱条款更指明了农业国内支持的方向。我国在入世协议中也对农业国内支持作了承诺。为此，要发展农业，应在遵守上述WTO规则的基础上逐步完善我国现行的农业国内支持制度。     

全力支持河套大学人才培养水平评估 构建巴彦淖尔完善的国民教育体系

10月份,教育部将组织专家组对河套大学进行人才培养工作水平评估,对河套大学而言,这既是机遇也是挑战。经过21年的发展,河套大学取得了可喜的成绩。通过这次评估,河套大学要理清思路、深化改革,认真整改,迈向新高。教育行政部门大力支持对河套大学人才培养水平评估,支持河套大学的发展。     

Social Support Interventions in Migrant Populations

The phenomenon of immigration has led to an important increasein the number of social programmes and services for migrantpopulations in many European countries. However, some investigationshave shown that the use of formal resources is extremely lowin these groups. In contrast to the limited utilization of programmesand services, research in the field of social psychology hasrevealed that the primary source of help and support for immigrantsis their own informal social network. After analysing the characteristics,advantages and limitations of formal and informal support systems,this paper presents a typology of social support interventionswith migrant populations that integrates both types of support.Four levels are differentiated: dyadic interventions, socialnetwork interventions, mutual aid groups and community interventions.The development of programmes to strengthen the informal supportsystem is emphasized as an alternative to integrating formaland informal resources in social work practice with migrantpopulations.     

关于农民工类型的思考

改革开放以来,在农民社会分化的基础上,出现了不同类型的农民工。按其居住地和从事职业的不同,可以划分为在乡在土型、在乡离土型、离乡离土型、离乡在土型四种类型。在乡在土型农民工既在家乡附近的企业打工,又经营土地,二者所得为其经济来源;在乡离土型农民工在家乡附近的企业里打工,不再经营土地,完全把打工收入作为经济来源;离乡离土型农民工离开家乡到外地打工,完全和先前的承包地脱离关系,打工收入为其经济来源;离乡在土型农民工虽然离开家乡到外地打工,但家庭承包地仍然经营着,二者所得为其经济来源。文章的目的在于更深入地研究农民工,认识不同类型农民工的特征、存在的主要问题、需求,为有关部门的科学决策提供依据,有效地解决农民工问题。     

Trade-Offs Between Formal Home Health Care and Informal Family CareGiving

Using 1994 National Long Term Care Survey data, we estimated logistic regressions of formal and informal home health care use and hours. Home health care use and intensity were differentially impacted by chronic conditions, are higher for Medicaid enrollees and rural or small town residents, but lower for HMO enrollees. Decreases in the probability of home health care use increased informal instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) support four hours and decreased informal activities of daily living (ADL) support eight hours weekly. IADL caregiving substituted for formal care, but ADL caregiving declined with reductions in formal care. Public policy reducing formal home health care access may reduce informal ADL caregiving and increase informal IADL caregiving, producing net declines in support.     

综合实践活动课程实施的问题与对策

教师的课程理论素养较差,与综合实践活动课程实施的要求不相适应;综合实践活动课程的实施缺乏相关的制度保障和社会支持,是综合实践活动课程实施中存在的主要问题.解决问题的对策是:加强对教师的培训,提高教师实施综合实践活动课程的能力;完善学校相关教研、培训及管理等制度,为综合实践活动课程的实施提供制度保障;建立良好的社会支持和保障系统,充分利用各种资源,为综合实践活动课程的实施创造更好的条件.     

Fuzzy K-means clustering models for triangular fuzzy time trajectories

We focus our attention on the classification of fuzzy time trajectories with triangular membership function, described by a given set of individuals. To this purpose, we adopt a fullyinformational approach, explicitly recognizing the informational nature shared by the ingredients of the classification procedure: the observed data (Empirical Information) and the classification model (Theoretical Information). In particular, by supposing that the informational paradigm has a fuzzy nature, we suggest three fuzzy clustering models allowing the classification of the triangular fuzzy time trajectories, based on the analysis of the cross sectional and/or longitudinal characteristics of their components (centers and spreads). Two applicative examples are illustrated.     

西部诗人高凯的乡土世界

甘肃诗人高凯的乡土诗在中国西部当代诗歌中是独特的,他构筑的乡土世界已逐渐引起评论家的关注并赢得较高的评价。他的乡土诗主要有这样三部分组成:一,风俗画的展现;二,乡情、乡愁的吟唱;三,家园意识的追寻。高凯的乡土世界是厚重的、完整的。诗歌具有哲学和人类学的思想高度。