基于最新统计分类标准的数字经济发展水平测度

随着信息技术的发展,数字经济已经成为经济增长的"新引擎"。但由于缺乏权威的产业统计分类标准,学者们一直面临"数字经济研究缺乏数字依据"的尴尬境地。文章基于国家统计局公布并实施的《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中的分类标准,对各省份统计年鉴的数据进行重新整理,利用熵权法构建数字经济发展指数,测度了我国30个省份的数字经济发展水平,分析了各省份数字经济发展的差异以及时空特征。研究发现,2009—2019年我国数字经济产业发展迅猛,各项子产业都取得了长足的进步。相比较而言,数字要素驱动业发展速度略低于其他三个子产业;数字经济发展存在着明显的区域不平衡。东中部地区的数字经济发展状况明显优于西部地区,南方优于北方,而且区域不平衡有持续扩大趋势。     

气候的历史与历史气候研究

寨堡是我国古代重要的军事防御性聚落，其修筑的时间、空间皆与区域的战争形势有着较大关系。清代四川省由于多次大规模战乱，迫使乡民修筑了数以千计的寨堡。寨堡的命名主要可分为因自然地理条件和因人文社会因素两大类，前者包括地形、水文、土石、植物等，后者包括姓氏、寺观、神祇、嘉名、人物、神话、形象、纪事等。寨名包含了丰富的文化内涵，体现出了寨堡的选址、用材、作用、历史、精神等内容。     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

Interval estimation for conformance proportions of multiple quality characteristics

A conformance proportion is an important and useful index to assess industrial quality improvement. Statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion are usually required not only to perform statistical significance tests, but also to provide useful information for determining practical significance. In this article, we propose approaches for constructing statistical confidence limits for a conformance proportion of multiple quality characteristics. Under the assumption that the variables of interest are distributed with a multivariate normal distribution, we develop an approach based on the concept of a fiducial generalized pivotal quantity (FGPQ). Without any distribution assumption on the variables, we apply some confidence interval construction methods for the conformance proportion by treating it as the probability of a success in a binomial distribution. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through detailed simulation studies. The results reveal that the simulated coverage probability (cp) for the FGPQ-based method is generally larger than the claimed value. On the other hand, one of the binomial distribution-based methods, that is, the standard method suggested in classical textbooks, appears to have smaller simulated cps than the nominal level. Two alternatives to the standard method are found to maintain their simulated cps sufficiently close to the claimed level, and hence their performances are judged to be satisfactory. In addition, three examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

A new generalized Weibull distribution in income economic inequality curves

Researchers have been developing various extensions and modified forms of the Weibull distribution to enhance its capability for modeling and fitting different data sets. In this note, we investigate the potential usefulness of the new modification to the standard Weibull distribution called odd Weibull distribution in income economic inequality studies. Some mathematical and statistical properties of this model are proposed. We obtain explicit expressions for the first incomplete moment, quantile function, Lorenz and Zenga curves and related inequality indices. In addition to the well-known stochastic order based on Lorenz curve, the stochastic order based on Zenga curve is considered. Since the new generalized Weibull distribution seems to be suitable to model wealth, financial, actuarial and especially income distributions, these findings are fundamental in the understanding of how parameter values are related to inequality. Also, the estimation of parameters by maximum likelihood and moment methods is discussed. Finally, this distribution has been fitted to United States and Austrian income data sets and has been found to fit remarkably well in compare with the other widely used income models.     

孤独个体与向死而生——多元文化社会中《凡人》的身份认同

美国犹太裔作家菲利普·罗斯的《凡人》讲述了一个关于失去与孤独、疾病与死亡的故事。主人公作为一个犹太裔美国人,因其身份的特殊性与美国主流文化格格不入,显得格外孤独与痛苦,这种孤独个体的特性也贯穿了其一生。与此同时,在他的一生中无时无刻不在与疾病和死亡作斗争,体现了向死而生的特点,即在绝望中蕴含着希望。在美国多元文化社会中,主人公追寻的身份认同正是当代美国人普遍的生存状况,表现了普遍的生存困境。     

Journey towards independent living: a grounded theory investigation of leaving the care of Girls & Boys Town,South Africa

The journey out of care and towards independent living is a challenge for many care-leavers. There has been little research into the social processes involved in this care-leaving journey. This paper presents the results of a grounded theory investigation into the care-leaving journeys of nine young men who had, several years previously, been in the care of Girls & Boys Town in South Africa. Working from a resilience perspective, with an ecological emphasis, four central social processes emerged that together explain the care-leaving experiences of the participants. These processes are striving for authentic belonging; networking people for goal attainment; contextualised responsiveness and building hopeful and tenacious self-confidence. These four processes are located within contextual boundaries and at the social environmental interface. The paper presents these processes in detail, drawing on selected narratives of the participants and integrated with additional theory. It is hoped that this paper may contribute to theory building concerning care-leaving processes and enhance youth care practices for youth in care and leaving care.     

"委心"与"委运"——论陶渊明的存在方式

阐述陶渊明存在方式的特征--"委心"与"委运",即一切听凭造化因任自然,率性而动了无矫饰,任情而行不待安排,任其真性流行,还人生以自在.能"委心"且能"委运"就做到了"任真","任真"是其内在性与外在性的同时完成,并因之使他成为一个本真存在的人.     

纪昀的西域谪戍生涯及《阅微草堂笔记》反映西域风土人情的特点

乾隆三十三年 ,纪昀因为“漏言”被谪贬至西域乌鲁木齐。与古代其他谪贬文人所不同的是 ,他并未完全沉浸于穷愁怨艾的情绪中 ,而是以积极乐观的人生态度面对现实。他的《乌鲁木齐杂诗》及《阅微草堂笔记》多方面地展示了西域的风土人情。但两者在内容及视角上有所不同 ,《乌鲁木齐杂诗》以丰富见长 ,但多粉饰之意 ;《阅微草堂笔记》以深刻取胜 ,真实而颇见其洞察力