上证30指数股市盈率实证分析

通过对2000年上证30指数股市盈率水平及其影响因素进行实证分析,可以发现,其中股息支付率、每股收益增长率、行业平均市盈率对股票P/E值起主要的解释作用,而股本规模因素,解释力却有限,除每股收益增长率外,各变量的相关性与理论分析基本一致.     

Health Risk,Inequality Indexes,and Environmental Justice

Inequality indexes have long been used to analyze distributions of income. Studies have recently begun to use these tools to evaluate the equity of distributions of environmental harm. In response, issues have been raised regarding the appropriateness of using income-based measures in the context of undesirable outcomes. We begin from first principles, identifying a theoretical preference structure under which income-based tools can be appropriate for ranking distributions of “bads.” While some critiques of existing applications are valid, they are not a justification for rejecting the approach altogether. Instead, we show how standard income-based measures can be adjusted to accommodate bad outcomes. Rather than inequality indexes, we argue that equally distributed equivalents (EDEs) are well-suited for this purpose since they account for levels and dispersion of outcome distributions. The Kolm–Pollak EDE is particularly useful, having the advantage of consistently evaluating both bads and their complementary goods (e.g., mortality risk and survival probability). As an illustration, we show how these tools can inform an environmental justice analysis of a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule addressing indoor air pollution.     

The warrants of parenting: emotionality and reflexivity in economically disadvantaged families

Despite the popularity of the education model in parenting work, parents' capacity for reflexive inner dialogue is becoming a newly sought virtue for handling parent–child difficulties. Based on a study of parenting experiences among Chinese parents in Hong Kong, this paper argues for a departure from the education model to incorporate reflexive parenting in the parental role. Reflexive parenting promises idiosyncratic solutions for the dynamic problems that parenting in contemporary society must address. Warrants of reflexive parenting are proposed as a framework with which helping professionals can adjust their strategies to help parents better handle the challenge of contemporary parenting.     

商品金融化背景下大宗商品指数收益机制转换

基于虚拟变量Markov机制转换模型,选取具有代表性的国际商品指数-标普高盛商品指数(S&P GSCI)及道琼斯大宗商品指数(DJCI)为研究对象,探寻大宗商品指数收益率机制转换出现的规律与诱因.实证结果表明:修正后的模型能较好地反映大宗商品指数收益率波动性呈现出的“中-高-中高-低-中”的阶段性变化,在阶段变换的拐点处商品指数呈现出具有转折意义的“V”形走势;金融危机前后的流动性冲击改变机制转化的概率.研究结果可以为预测大宗商品市场走势及阶段性转折点提供参考.     

Exploring the unknown aspects of Roma community in Cyprus and the role of social work practice

The status quo of Roma communities in Europe is strongly marked by marginalisation and discrimination. Roma people tend to face social exclusion and segregation leading to lack of education, chronic unemployment and limited access to healthcare, housing and public services as well as widespread poverty. Very few studies have been conducted as far as Roma community in Cyprus are concerned and almost none has explored quality of life of this ethnic minority. Therefore, this article examines quality of life dimensions in approximately half of the population (n?=?156) residing in the catchment area. Both quantitative and qualitative results showed poor standards of living, high school dropout rates and high levels of marginalisation. Social work as discipline can foster a more empowering and coordinating role as to enhance Roma’s distinctive identity and improve standards of living.     

Learning disabled students and access to accommodations: socioeconomic status,capital, and stigma

In the 1990s, Canadian universities began implementing policies to accommodate learning disabled students. While such policies appear to make post-secondary education more accessible, students must manage considerable complexity and absorb social and financial costs to receive accommodations. Through interviews with learning disabled students, this research explores the effects of socio-economic status (SES) on how, or whether, students access accommodations at a Nova Scotian university. Drawing on the work of Bourdieu and Goffman, this study suggests that SES affects students’ abilities to navigate the accommodation process successfully, and that accommodation policies, while important, may not ensure equal access to accommodations.     

An alternative method for global and partial comparison of two diagnostic systems based on ROC curves

In this paper, an alternative method for the comparison of two diagnostic systems based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is presented. ROC curve analysis is often used as a statistical tool for the evaluation of diagnostic systems. However, in general, the comparison of ROC curves is not straightforward, in particular, when they cross each other. A similar difficulty is also observed in the multi-objective optimization field where sets of solutions defining fronts must be compared with a multi-dimensional space. Thus, the proposed methodology is based on a procedure used to compare the performance of distinct multi-objective optimization algorithms. In general, methods based on the area under the ROC curves are not sensitive to the existence of crossing points between the curves. The new approach can deal with this situation and also allows the comparison of partial portions of ROC curves according to particular values of sensitivity and specificity of practical interest. Simulations results are presented. For illustration purposes, considering real data from newborns with very low birthweight, the new method was applied in order to discriminate the better index for evaluating the risk of death.     

我国股票市场指数及指数证券投资组合

运用主成分分析法分析我国上海和深圳两个交易所几个市场指数对市场变化的反应情 况, 结果表明两个股票市场的综合指数和A 股指数可以反应市场的变化, 而其他指数不能反 映各自代表的股票市场变化. 由于这4 个指数都不是一个好的投资组合, 要得到与指数一致的 投资收益需要构造指数投资组合. 本文利用多因子定价模型, 结合统计分析和优化方法, 从每 个股票市场上选取20 余支股票, 经过适当的组合就可以得到与指数一致的收益.     

论休闲产业与社会经济发展的关系

当前,休闲产业已经逐步发展成为新的经济增长点,在社会经济发展进程中起到越来越重要的助推作用:诸如可以增加就业,刺激消费,节约能源,调节国民收入再分配,提高劳动效率以及带动地区经济整体发展等.所以,通过各种有效途径大力发展休闲产业对于社会经济发展就显得意义重大.