自我他者化：边地影像的诗学过渡与平等悖论

“边地影像”是边疆少数民族民众纪录自身的非虚构创作。在朗西埃“可感性的分配”美学理论视野下，边地影像体现了题材选择的一视同仁和人性的解放，以平等维度的引入开拓了其艺术与政治价值。透过“自我他者化”的艺术操作，它改变边地的可感性的分配秩序。“客位视角”到“主位视角”和“参与拍摄”到“独立创作”的过渡所释放的乡野表达，成为评测其诗学力量的关键质素。同时，围绕“差异性”展开的影像再现常常导向“微小差异的自恋”,并在言语的过度中营造了某种“圣化构想”，进而使其差异政治悖论性地生成了新的可感性不平等。     

Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval

ABSTRACT

The cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making.     

基于债务协商视角的债转股定量研究

针对我国政府、企业和银行等金融机构共同关注的债转股问题，基于债务协商谈判思想，建立部分债务股权互换模型，计算公司证券价格，探讨了债转股对公司价值、破产概率、破产损失成本和资本结构的影响，给出了银行等债权人愿意债转股的充分条件。结果表明：在事先破产清算协议贷款下，事后全部债转股总能提高公司股权价值，但并不一定能提高债券价值。只有其协商谈判能力满足一定条件，公司债权人才愿意事后选择债转股，实现帕累托改进、提高社会福利水平。其次，在公司股东协商谈判能力的一定范围内，部分债转股能提高公司价值，其最优转股债息比例随着公司资产风险的增大而增加。再次，债转股能降低公司破产风险和破产损失成本，但同时也提高了债券风险溢价。最后，随着股东谈判能力增强，最优协商转股债务比例、杠杆率都减少，而债券风险溢价增大。本文所得结果对我国政府、企业和银行如何实施债转股提供理论参考和实践指导。     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post-Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter-Earthquake Heterogeneity

Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities.     

列宁社会主义建设方法论及其在中国的发展

社会主义建设的方法论 ,是社会主义建设和发展的一个至关重要的问题。列宁在此问题上进行了不懈的探索 ,并找到了正确的方法 ,这就是间接过渡的方法。列宁社会主义建设方法论 ,在中国得到了发展 ,毛泽东和邓小平为此都作了不懈的努力 ,并由邓小平创立了有中国特色的社会主义建设方法论     

体制转轨国家腐败与反腐败的经济学分析

中国社会正处于体制转轨的关键时刻 ,转轨本身产生出过多的任意处置权 ,腐败的现实成本和机会成本都很低 ,造成了腐败在转轨国家滋生蔓延。转轨国家要保证反腐败的有效性 ,就必须有效降低反腐败的成本 ,增大腐败的成本 ,今后反腐败措施是 :1.要加快市场化改革进程 ,减少任意决策权 ,缩小政府规模 ;2 .要对政府官员进行有效激励 ,实行“养廉工资” ,以期加大革职的代价 ;3.要通过一系列制度建设 ,对政府官员进行有效的监督和约束 ,以增加腐败的现实成本。     

社会转型期青少年犯罪的文化思考

青少年犯罪已成为一个严重的社会问题。社会文化转型期异质文化、社会不良文化、青少年亚文化以及代际文化冲突对青少年犯罪具有不同程度的影响,从文化的角度提出相应的预防措施特别是对青少年亚文化进行调控将是一个新的视角。     

中国与俄罗斯经济转轨比较

经济转轨的基础决定了中国与俄罗斯的经济转轨方向的不同，产权改革的效率决定两国经济转轨的成效。通过两国经济转轨的比较，文章认为有三个方面的深刻经验教训特别值得我们重视，即经济转轨必须高度重视政府的作用、产权私有化并非提高效率的充分必要条件、产权制度的变迁具有演进性和不可复制性。