Wearing corset,losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances

When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.     

全域旅游视角下的天府旅游名县竞争力研究——以四川省县域城市为例

天府旅游名县创建是按照全域旅游发展理念开展的，以建设世界重要旅游目的地为目标的建设工程。文章在系统整理旅游目的地竞争力主要研究成果基础上，建立15个天府旅游名县竞争力评价指标，基于可量化数据，采用主成分和聚类分析方法，对进入天府旅游名县的40个县(市、区）进行实证研究。结果显示，旅游核心竞争力、旅游发展规模、旅游综合实力、非优势资源品牌创建能力等因素是构成天府旅游名县评判的主要因子；从空间结构上看，呈现成都平原最强，川西、川北居中，川南最弱的局面；从创建动力上看，不应仅关注创建结果，而应通过创建工作，促进县域经济综合发展水平和城市发展潜力提升。     

质疑“皇权不下县”——基于宏观的长时段的动态历史考证

自秦汉至明清之际的1 800余年，中国历代王朝的“编户齐民”一直在2 000万人至6 000万人之间徘徊，全国的耕地面积基本维持在8亿亩左右，县的数量大体保持在1 500个上下，总体上并没有达到“地方百里、人口万户”的标准建制，因而属于一种“小县制”。同时，县以下还有乡里制度和以什伍编制为基本组织原则的保甲体系，皇权专制集权统治以“县政”为依托，其政治影响可谓无所不在、无事不管。因此，由当代西方学者提出的所谓“国权不下县，县下惟宗族，宗族皆自治，自治靠伦理，伦理造乡绅”纯属于一种毫无历史根据和主观臆断的无稽之谈。     

“城市化”发展模式的选择与农村剩余劳动力转移

我国建国以来一直采用城乡分隔的管理体制,城市化远远滞后于工业化。在城市化不同的发展模式选择上,有以大中城市发展为重心和以发展小城镇为重心两种主要观点。不同的城市化发展模式对农村剩余劳动力转移影响不同。根据我国的国情,我国的城市化模式应该是既能发挥城市的集聚功能,又能很好地实现农村剩余劳动力的转移。由此,我国应该以发展大中城市为主,小城镇建设为辅助。在大城市转移剩余劳动力有限的情况下,小城镇可以发展以为农业服务产业来实现农村剩余劳动力的非农化转移。     

民族自治县经济发展的区域差异研究

民族自治县经济发展与全国县域经济整体相比,发展水平相对滞后,同时其内部发展也不平衡。从纵向发展来看,在1995-2004年间差异性逐渐扩大;从横向来看,区域差异明显。本文通过运用衡量经济发展差异的基尼系数和泰尔系数的计算,分不同层次对民族自治县经济发展的差异性进行了实证研究,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

武陵山区少数民族州县主导产业解读与选择

主导产业发展的关键是定位要准确。本文通过分析武陵山区少数民族州县主导产业选择存在的问题,阐明主导产业选择的原则,并结合其约束条件给出主导产业定位的几种模式。     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

REPATRIATION OF DEBT IN THE EURO CRISIS

With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long‐standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross‐border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the Euro area. We read these results in light of standard theories of cross‐border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt.     

宁夏县域旅游业发展的思考

旅游业具有成本低、利润大、投入少、产出多等特点,对推动县域经济发展有着独特的意义和作用。近年来,宁夏十分重视旅游资源的开发,县域旅游业有了较快发展,但是,各县(市)的旅游开发与自身拥有的丰富的旅游资源优势还极不相称。本文在分析宁夏县域旅游资源优势及存在问题的基础上,提出了加快宁夏县域旅游业发展并将其培育为县域支柱产业和新的经济增长点的若干建议。